Stormrake - Insights #US Government Shutdown

The Rake Review: March 2026

Wed, 01 Apr 2026 18:43:11 +1100

The Shift is Underway

March was the month everything changed for Bitcoin. For much of the year, we highlighted its true purpose. In March, that narrative became reality.

Chaos is Accelerating the Shift:

There are often turning points or key events within the globe that cause a major shift in the globe, usually in the form of revolutions or changes in world powers. These shifts catch most by surprise but those who were able to identify the signs early and position themselves are sitting in the best spot for once the change occurs.

The current conflict that dominated headlines and influenced every market throughout the month has accelerated this shift. The conflict in the Middle East, we saw it occur last year but it only lasted a couple of weeks, markets took a slight detour before recovering and tracking higher.

This conflict has already surpassed a month and isn’t showing signs of ending anytime soon, despite the chaos in the headlines. Historically these events have resulted in investors rotating into extremely low risk assets such as cash and gold. But to many surprise this hasn’t been the case, in fact we have seen capital leave the likes of gold and return into Bitcoin.

It is a sign of a shift in Bitcoin and its role in the global economy.

What we are witnessing is not just a short term reaction to geopolitical stress, but a structural change in how capital behaves under pressure. In previous cycles, moments like this forced a predictable rotation into gold and cash. This time, that playbook is being challenged in real time.

Across the Middle East, investors have been actively selling gold, not because they have lost faith in it as a store of value, but because of its limitations in a fast moving and uncertain environment. Gold is difficult to transport, costly to secure, and inefficient to transact across borders. In contrast, Bitcoin offers instant mobility, divisibility, and self custody. When capital needs to move quickly, those properties matter.

There is also a market structure element at play. Increased selling pressure in physical gold markets has led to local bullion dealers offering below market rates due to imbalances in supply and demand. This creates friction at the exact moment investors need liquidity. Bitcoin, on the other hand, trades in a global, continuous market where liquidity remains accessible regardless of local conditions. The ability to exit at a transparent market price is becoming increasingly valuable.

This shift is already visible in price action. Since the conflict escalated, Bitcoin has held strength and pushed higher, while gold has softened and equities have struggled. That divergence is not noise. It points to early signs of decoupling, a theme we explored in The Bitcoin Regime Change Has Begun and further reinforced in our analysis of shifting monetary dynamics.

Bitcoin is no longer behaving purely as a speculative risk asset. In regions where traditional financial infrastructure is strained or inaccessible, it is actively being used as money. Settlement, preservation of value, and cross border transfer are no longer theoretical use cases, they are being tested in real conditions. As highlighted in Bitcoin at the Strait, this transition from narrative to utility is critical.

At the same time, broader monetary conditions are reinforcing this behaviour. As confidence in fiat systems continues to fluctuate and global liquidity remains uneven, capital is searching for alternatives that are both liquid and independent. Bitcoin is increasingly fitting that role.

The key takeaway is simple. This is not just about one conflict or one month of price action. It is about a redefinition of what investors consider a safe or reliable asset in times of uncertainty. Bitcoin is beginning to earn that status, not through speculation, but through performance under pressure.

The Market Never Closes Anymore:

Keeping on the theme of this broader shift, we are now seeing it move beyond capital flows and into the structure of finance itself. This is where things become more meaningful. It is no longer just about where money is going, but how the system it moves through is being rebuilt.

Traditional finance has always been constrained by time, geography, and layers of intermediaries. Markets open and close. Settlement takes time. Access depends on jurisdiction, permissions, and counterparties. That model worked in a slower, more fragmented world, but it is increasingly out of sync with how capital now behaves.

Crypto infrastructure removes those constraints entirely.

Markets are now operating in a continuous cycle. Capital moves 24/7, reacting instantly to news, macro shifts, and geopolitical developments. There is no delay between regions, no waiting for sessions to overlap, and no downtime where risk cannot be managed. This fundamentally changes how participants interact with markets. Exposure can be adjusted in real time, and liquidity is constantly available rather than concentrated into specific windows.

This shift is not theoretical, it is already being stress tested in real conditions.

Throughout the recent conflict, major geopolitical updates have not waited for market hours. Trump, in particular, has made several market moving statements over weekends, a period where traditional finance is effectively offline. In previous cycles, investors would have been forced to wait, unable to react until markets reopened.

Now, that delay no longer exists.

On platforms like Hyperliquid, traders have been actively positioning in real time, not just in crypto, but in tokenised representations of traditional markets. Oil, the S&P 500, and major equities such as Tesla and Apple have all seen price discovery continue over the weekend, driven by these developments. By the time traditional markets reopen, a significant portion of that price movement has already occurred on-chain.

This is a fundamental shift in where and when markets move.

Hyperliquid sits at the centre of this evolution. It is not just offering an alternative venue for crypto trading, it is building infrastructure that mirrors and, in some areas, surpasses traditional derivatives markets. Onchain order books, deep liquidity, and continuous trading create an environment where capital does not need to wait for legacy systems to catch up.

The significance of this is underscored by its growing integration with traditional finance. The Nasdaq deal with Hyperliquid signals that this is no longer an isolated crypto native experiment. Established financial players are beginning to recognise the advantages of on-chain infrastructure, particularly when it comes to speed, transparency, and global accessibility.

At the same time, tokenisation is accelerating this convergence.

By bringing traditional assets on-chain, tokenisation allows them to inherit the benefits of crypto rails. Assets that were once restricted by market hours can now trade continuously. Settlement becomes instant, ownership becomes more flexible, and access becomes global. The lines between crypto and traditional finance are no longer clear cut, they are beginning to merge.

What this creates is a financial system where capital is always in motion.

Liquidity no longer sits idle waiting for markets to open. It reacts instantly to information, whether that comes from central banks, geopolitical events, or unexpected headlines over the weekend. Price discovery becomes a continuous process rather than a fragmented one, and increasingly, it is happening on-chain first.

The key takeaway is clear. Crypto is not just complementing traditional finance, it is actively replacing some of its core functions. When markets close, crypto stays open. And as more capital, infrastructure, and institutions move in this direction, the question is no longer if traditional finance adapts, but how quickly it can catch up.

A Turning Point Beneath the Surface:

Despite widespread uncertainty and continued pressure across traditional markets, March marked a subtle but important shift for Bitcoin. Breaking the streak of red months, Bitcoin closed March up 1.83%, avoiding what would have been the longest drawdown in its history.

While the gain may appear marginal on the surface, the significance runs far deeper.

March was a fundamentally strong month. Bitcoin not only held its ground but began to decouple from traditional risk assets, outperforming in an environment where equities struggled and gold failed to attract sustained demand. This is the shift we have been highlighting, and in March, it began to materialise in real time.

As we move into Q2, April becomes a focal point.

Historically, April has been one of Bitcoin’s strongest performing months, second only to November. It has delivered an average return of 33.4% and closed green in 10 of the last 15 years. While past performance is not a guarantee of future results, it does provide a seasonal tailwind that aligns with the improving conditions we are beginning to see.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/5lWGOSPk/

From a technical perspective, March was largely defined by consolidation.

Price spent the majority of the month ranging, with multiple attempts to break higher failing to gain sustained momentum. This has created a clear structure heading into April. The key level for the bears sits at $60K, while the bulls need to reclaim and hold above $70K. A decisive break and hold beyond either of these levels is likely to dictate the next major move.

Momentum is now beginning to shift.

The bears, after months of control, are showing clear signs of exhaustion. Selling pressure is no longer accelerating, and downside follow through has weakened. On the other side, the bulls are starting to reassert themselves. March saw a return of strong ETF inflows, signalling renewed institutional demand, alongside improving onchain metrics.

Layer on top of that a historically strong month, and the setup becomes increasingly constructive.

If Bitcoin were to align with its historical April average of 33.4%, it would place price in the region of $90K. While that is not a forecast, it provides a framework for what a strong recovery phase could look like. More importantly, a move of that magnitude would likely signal that the bear phase has ended and that the market is transitioning back into expansion.

As always, the focus should not be on a single outcome, but on the shift in conditions.

After months of downside, the balance is beginning to tilt. March may have been modest in percentage terms, but structurally, it was one of the most important months in this cycle so far.

In the News

Aussie Super Funds Eye Bitcoin

A long standing gap within the Australian superfund industry has been its lack of exposure to Bitcoin and digital assets. Despite global momentum, most funds have remained on the sidelines, offering little to no access for clients. That may now be starting to change, with Hostplus reportedly exploring the introduction of digital assets as an investment option.

If implemented, this would mark a meaningful shift. Superannuation represents a significant pool of capital, and even a small allocation to Bitcoin could drive notable demand. While AMP introduced Bitcoin exposure back in 2024 and faced backlash from traditional players like Vanguard, the landscape in 2026 is very different. Adoption has accelerated globally, and Australia now appears to be moving in the same direction.

Tether Moves Towards Full Audit

Tether, the largest stablecoin issuer, has announced it will undergo its first full independent audit conducted by a Big Four accounting firm. This is a major step forward for transparency within the digital asset space, particularly given the systemic importance of stablecoins to market liquidity.

Following the stablecoin legislation introduced last year, this move sets a higher standard for accountability and trust. As institutional involvement continues to grow, these developments play a key role in strengthening the foundation of the industry and reducing long standing concerns around reserve backing and stability.

Oil Becomes the Pressure Point

As a result of the Middle East conflict, crude oil has become a focal point for global markets. The Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for roughly 20% of global oil flows, has faced disruption, driving a sharp increase in prices.

Crude surged to highs of $120 and is currently trading around $100. With the conflict showing no signs of slowing, some analysts are now projecting significantly higher prices, with prediction markets assigning a 21% probability of oil reaching $200 at some point this year.

The implications of this are broad. Rising oil prices feed directly into inflation, increasing costs across nearly every industry, from transport to manufacturing. This adds further pressure to an already fragile macro environment and reinforces the importance of assets that can operate outside traditional economic constraints.

Market Update

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in March 2026:

Bitcoin increased by 1.83% in March
Ethereum increased by 7.07% in March
PAX Gold fell by 12.8% in March
Hyperliquid was the clear standout up 17.03% in March
The total crypto market cap grew by 1.89%

Video of the month

Australian Banks Are Blocking Bitcoin Purchases…Here's What They Don't Want You to Know.

Adam Hudson and Bisher Khudeira

Education: Understanding Correlation

One of the most important concepts in markets, yet one of the most overlooked, is correlation.

Correlation measures how assets move relative to each other. When assets are positively correlated, they move in the same direction. When they are negatively correlated, they move in opposite directions. This relationship underpins how capital is allocated across markets.

Traditionally, the structure has been clear.

Bitcoin has largely traded as a risk asset, often showing a strong positive correlation with equities. At times, this correlation has been as high as 0.6, meaning Bitcoin and the S&P 500 were broadly moving together. When equities sold off, Bitcoin typically followed.

That relationship is now starting to break down.

As the recent conflict escalated, the S&P 500 moved lower, yet Bitcoin continued to absorb capital. The correlation has not disappeared, but it has weakened significantly, now fluctuating between 0.28 and 0.49. This is a meaningful shift and signals that Bitcoin is no longer tightly bound to equity market behaviour.

As shown below, this breakdown is clearly visible, with correlation becoming more unstable and less predictive of Bitcoin’s direction.

At the same time, Bitcoin is not behaving like a traditional safe haven either.

Gold, which typically benefits during periods of geopolitical uncertainty, has not shown a consistent relationship with Bitcoin. The correlation between the two remains unstable, frequently shifting between positive and negative territory.

This reinforces an important point.

Bitcoin is not simply replacing gold, nor is it behaving like equities. It is beginning to trade independently.

As shown below, the lack of a stable correlation with gold highlights that Bitcoin is still in a transition phase, carving out its own role within the global financial system.

This is a critical shift.

Under the old framework, Bitcoin was viewed as a high risk extension of equities. Under this emerging framework, it is becoming an asset that does not cleanly fit into traditional categories.

For investors, this changes how Bitcoin should be viewed.

If you are only watching equities or gold to understand Bitcoin, you are likely to misread the market. The relationships that once defined its behaviour are no longer as reliable.

The key takeaway is simple.

Do not just track price, track relationships. Correlation tells you how the market views an asset. And when those correlations begin to shift, it is often the earliest signal that a larger structural change is underway.

Right now, Bitcoin is in that transition.

And understanding that shift is what separates reacting to the market from positioning ahead of it.

Written by Alexandar Artis

Start Your Brokerage Account

Get Started

If you enjoyed this Rake Review, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

Disclaimer

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2026 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved

The Rake Review: February 2026

Mon, 02 Mar 2026 11:12:03 +1100

How Strong Is Your Bitcoin Conviction?

February was a true test of conviction for Bitcoin investors, forcing participants to revisit the reasons they entered the market in the first place. As historic records were set to the downside and bears tightened their grip, weak positioning was exposed and long term conviction was challenged.

A Test of Conviction and Psychology:

When it comes to Bitcoin, buying it is easy during a bull market for most retail investors, following the headlines, the hype and especially the fear of missing out (FOMO) in an uptrend. The bear market reveals those who really lack conviction and confidence in their Bitcoin purchases and will weed those out.

For the first time since 2018 and only the third time in its history Bitcoin has closed five consecutive red months. Not only this but it has also seen a historic day occur. Moving $10,000 USD from open to close in a single day. But unfortunately for the bulls these are not records that were desired.

Now down 50% from all time highs seen just five months ago, sentiment is at an all time low with single digit fear and greed readings. But Bitcoin remains above $60k, those who have conviction remain strong in the market and are taking advantage of these discounted prices.

Before we get into what smart money and those with conviction are doing, let’s take a look at what happened the last time we saw this many consecutive red months.The previous occurrences came in 2011 and 2018, both of which ultimately printed six red months and coincided with the latter stages of bear market bottoms before new expansion phases began. That isn’t to say that Bitcoin can’t extend its streak of red to longer than five or six months but it is yet another sign that we are closer to the cycle bottom than a top.

These are the times where smart money is doubling down on their conviction, it doesn’t matter if you have been in the market for multiple cycles or if you bought the top of the last one. Conviction is conviction, discounts are discounts. Those who did buy the top are using these periods to accumulate more Bitcoin and reduce their time spent underwater significantly, a deeper dive of how this can be achieved can be found in our recent Morning note here.

Conviction is not about perfect entries. It is about recognising value when it is in front of you and having the discipline to act. Greed exists during bear markets, people who stay sidelined as they wait for lower prices risk missing out on the major discounts altogether. Windows in bear markets close sooner than most expect. Whilst the chance of a further drawdown does exist, those who get allocated at discounts will often be in a much better position than those who tried picking the bottom and ended up missing it.

History shows that bottoms are processes, not single candles. They are built through exhaustion, disbelief and time. Five red months, a 50% drawdown, and a $10,000 single day move are not comfortable conditions. They are the conditions that test patience and expose weak positioning.

The market does not reward comfort. It rewards preparation.

This phase is separating reactive capital from strategic capital. The former waits for headlines to improve. The latter builds exposure when sentiment is washed out and risk to reward begins to skew favourably.

No one rings a bell at the bottom. But when fear reaches extremes, volatility expands, and multi month weakness stretches conviction to its limits, historically that has marked the late stages of corrective phases rather than the beginning of new euphoric cycles.

The question each participant must answer is simple. Are you reacting to price, or positioning for the next expansion?

Because when momentum returns, it rarely offers the same discounts twice.

The Rise of AI and Its Impact on Bitcoin:

A hot topic of February was the rise of AI and the threat it poses to many things we know and love within the world. Tech stocks faced the brunt of the concern and bearish price action as a result of something as simple as a post on X.

Claude AI introduced their Claude Code Security through an X post. The immediate aftermath saw $15 billion wiped from leading cybersecurity stocks including Palo Alto, CrowdStrike and Cloudflare. Beyond cybersecurity, IBM experienced a 13% single day drop, its worst day since 2000, after Anthropic launched its programming AI tool.

The market reaction was swift and ruthless. Narrative risk alone was enough to reprice entire sectors.

So the question naturally arises. Is Bitcoin next?

The harsh truth is that AI will continue to improve. It will create new products that replace existing ones. It will threaten business models and displace jobs. That evolution is not speculative, it is inevitable.

So could AI create a new blockchain or coin and replace Bitcoin?

The simple answer is no.

Consider how many altcoins have been created over time with the explicit goal of improving Bitcoin. Faster throughput, better scalability, enhanced programmability, lower fees. Yet none have succeeded in replacing it. Almost all have trended toward zero against Bitcoin over time.

It would be no different if AI were involved. Whether a human instructs AI to build a superior blockchain, or autonomous systems collaborate to design their own digital currency, the challenge remains the same.

Bitcoin is not dominant because it has the most advanced code. It is dominant because it has the strongest network.

Nearly two decades of uptime. A globally distributed node network. The largest and most secure proof of work hash rate in existence. Deep liquidity across spot, futures and ETF markets. Integration into corporate treasuries and institutional portfolios.

AI can optimise software. It can simulate economic systems. It can produce technically elegant consensus mechanisms. But Bitcoin’s moat is not purely technological. It is social, economic and game theoretic.

The Lindy effect applies. The longer Bitcoin survives, the more likely it is to continue surviving. It has endured exchange collapses, mining bans, regulatory hostility and internal ideological splits. Each crisis has reinforced its resilience.

Replacing Bitcoin would not simply require better code. It would require convincing miners to redirect hash power, institutions to rotate balance sheets, ETFs to migrate capital, developers to abandon infrastructure, and millions of holders to exchange the hardest digital monetary asset ever created for something unproven.

That is not a product upgrade. That is a global coordination problem.

AI is more likely to enhance Bitcoin than replace it. It can improve security tooling, optimise mining efficiency, strengthen Lightning infrastructure and refine on chain analytics. In many ways, AI could accelerate Bitcoin’s maturity.

The more realistic short term impact is narrative competition. Capital follows attention. If AI continues to dominate headlines, speculative liquidity may rotate toward AI related equities and tokens.

But Bitcoin is not a software company. It is a monetary network.

Monetary networks are not replaced because something faster appears. They are replaced when trust breaks. And nearly twenty years in, Bitcoin’s trust layer remains intact.

AI will reshape industries. It will create disruption and volatility.

But replacing the most secure and decentralised digital monetary network ever created?

That bar is far higher than writing better code.

February Extends the Red Streak. Can March Reverse Momentum?

We mentioned that Bitcoin has now printed a fifth consecutive red month, with February closing down 15% and price falling to levels not seen since October 2024. Conviction continues to be tested as bears maintain short term control of the market.

Momentum is clearly to the downside on the higher timeframes. Lower highs have formed, rallies are being sold into, and sentiment remains fragile. But as history shows, it is precisely these environments that tend to offer asymmetric opportunities. We now turn to March.

Historically, March has not been the most consistent month for Bitcoin. Only six of the last fifteen March closes have been green. However, those green months have been significant, strong enough to skew the average March return to +10.9%. In other words, whilst the probability of a green month is not dominant, when March does perform, it performs meaningfully.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ni2ffVNe/

The chart above highlights the position Bitcoin currently finds itself in. Price is trading within a clear bearish structure on the daily timeframe, with resistance overhead and momentum yet to convincingly shift. The market is cautious, liquidity remains thin on rallies, and volatility expansion suggests another decisive move is building.

Yet bearish structure and opportunity are not mutually exclusive.

We have covered extensively in our Stormrake Morning Notes why accumulation during periods of compression and fear can provide a structural edge. Whether you are a new entrant looking to build exposure, an investor who bought higher and is currently underwater, or a multi cycle participant with deep conviction, these environments reward strategic positioning rather than emotional reaction.

If you are underwater, periods like this can materially reduce your breakeven level through disciplined accumulation. For new entrants, these are prices that were considered unattainable just months ago. And for those with experience, there is little need for persuasion. You understand that volatility is the entry fee for asymmetric upside.

It is also worth remembering that Bitcoin has never printed more than six consecutive red months in its history. On previous occasions where streaks of this magnitude ended, they coincided with the latter stages of bear markets and preceded significant upside expansions.

This is not a definitive bottom call. Nor are we suggesting that if March closes green the path lower is permanently closed. Markets do not move in straight lines, and macro headwinds still exist.

What we are saying is this. Five red months. A 50% drawdown. A $10,000 single day move. Single digit fear readings.

Historically, environments like this have been far closer to long term opportunity than late cycle risk. Volatility remains elevated. Uncertainty remains high. But from a cycle perspective, we are statistically and structurally much closer to the bottom than the top.

In the News

US Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump’s Tariffs

Last month we highlighted the pending US Supreme Court decision regarding President Trump’s tariff authority, with prediction markets assigning roughly a 35% probability that the ruling would favour the administration. The decision has now landed, with the court determining the tariffs were unlawful.

However, policy uncertainty did not end there. In response, Trump announced a fresh round of global tariffs at 10%, before subsequently increasing them to 15%. Whilst the legal question may have been addressed, trade tensions remain unresolved. Markets dislike uncertainty more than they dislike bad news, and the back and forth continues to inject volatility into risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Geopolitical Tensions Return to the Middle East

Risk off sentiment returned as tensions escalated once again in the Middle East, involving Iran, the US and Israel. The United States has deployed one of its largest naval presences in the region in decades, whilst Israeli strikes on Iranian targets triggered immediate market reactions. Bitcoin sold off sharply during the escalation whilst PAXG has begun to rally again.

Jane Street Under Scrutiny

Jane Street, a dominant quantitative trading firm and key liquidity provider across both traditional and crypto markets, is reportedly facing potential claims exceeding $1 billion linked to its alleged role in the 2022 Terra Luna collapse. In addition, market participants have pointed to repeated sharp Bitcoin moves around 10am EST, aligning with the US equity open, raising questions around cross asset liquidity dynamics.

Market Update

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in February 2026:

Bitcoin fell 15% in February
Ethereum declined 20% during the month
Stablecoin dominance increased by 17% in February
PAXG stood out, rising 10% whilst the majority of the market closed red
The total crypto market capitalisation fell by 13%

Video of the month

Bitcoin Is Going to $35,000. Here's Why I'm Buying. - Money Markets & Mayhem and Bisher Khudeira

Education: Real World Bitcoin Adoption

One of the most common questions surrounding Bitcoin is simple. How do you actually use it? It is also often framed as criticism by those unfamiliar with the ecosystem. You cannot spend your Bitcoin, so what is the point?

We have consistently reinforced Bitcoin’s core value proposition as a monetary asset. It is decentralised, scarce, censorship resistant and transferable without reliance on a central authority. That foundation alone resolved one of the biggest problems in finance, sending value peer to peer across the globe without needing permission from a bank or intermediary.

There is no debate around the success of that use case.

However, adoption does not stop at holding. Utility evolves.

The real innovation has come from the development of Layer 2 infrastructure, particularly the Lightning Network, built on top of Bitcoin to improve speed and scalability. Lightning enables near instant transactions with extremely low fees, making everyday payments practical in a way that base layer transactions were never designed to handle at scale.

Lightning does not replace Bitcoin. It enhances it.

By moving transactions off chain while still ultimately settling in Bitcoin, Lightning dramatically increases throughput. Payments that once required waiting for confirmations can now be completed in seconds. Fees are often fractions of a cent, opening the door for microtransactions and real world retail usage.

And the growth is measurable.

As shown in the chart above, estimated monthly Lightning volume has expanded from just $12.1 million in August 2021 to $78.2 million in August 2023. By November 2024 that figure had surged to $286.5 million, and projections for November 2025 stand at $1.17 billion.

That is not theoretical adoption. That is exponential growth.

But volume alone does not tell the full story.

The Lightning Network has evolved from an experimental scaling solution into a fully developed industry layer built on top of Bitcoin.

The growth of Lightning is not just visible in transaction volume. It is visible in real world usage.

As explored in our piece “One Steak Sandwich and a Side Of Bitcoin Please”, Bitcoin is no longer confined to online transfers or speculative holding. It is being used in physical environments, from restaurants to retail counters, where customers can pay instantly via Lightning by scanning a QR code.

What once required a card terminal, a bank intermediary and processing fees can now be settled peer to peer in seconds.

Major exchanges have integrated Lightning deposits and withdrawals. Wallet providers have refined user experience across both custodial and non custodial options. Payment processors allow merchants to accept Bitcoin and instantly convert to local currency if they wish, removing volatility risk whilst benefiting from lower fees and zero chargebacks.

For everyday users, the process is simple. A Lightning enabled wallet, a small Bitcoin balance, and the ability to transact globally without restriction.

In emerging markets, Lightning is being used for remittances and small business transactions. In developed economies, it is increasingly used for retail payments, online services and tipping. The use cases are expanding quietly rather than loudly, which is often how real adoption takes hold.

The idea that Bitcoin cannot be spent is outdated.

The infrastructure exists. The usage is growing. The real world examples are no longer theoretical.

Bitcoin remains digital hard money at its base layer. But through Lightning, it is also becoming a practical and scalable payment network that can function in day to day life.

Written by Alexandar Artis

Start Your Brokerage Account

Get Started

If you enjoyed this Rake Review, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

The Rake Review: January 2026

Fri, 30 Jan 2026 12:54:41 +1100

Bitcoin’s True Purpose

Bitcoin is not the next safe haven but the next global reserve currency. As fiat systems crack and liquidity returns, Bitcoin’s true role is emerging. This is not a repeat of past cycles but a structural reset. Still undervalued, still early.

Bitcoin Is Not a Safe Haven but Something Bigger

For a long time, people positioned themselves in Bitcoin as a modern version of a classical safe haven asset, comparable to gold or silver. While the price correlation has not held for over half a decade, the narrative persisted. But the last 12 months, and particularly January, have thrown a clear spotlight on the negative correlation between the two.

There is no debate that gold, and by extension silver, remains the dominant safe haven. With over 5,000 years of proven history, gold has long served as a reliable store of wealth. Bitcoin was dubbed ‘Digital Gold’ early on, sharing traits like finite supply, resistance to replication, and protection against fiat currency devaluation. But beyond these shared characteristics, the assets behave quite differently and that distinction benefits both.

Gold thrives in risk off environments, a trend made clear over the past year. It has performed well alongside silver, which has arguably been the standout asset of the past 12 months. Despite the similarities in branding, Bitcoin’s purpose is not to replace gold as a safe haven. Nor is it purely a risk on asset, although it tends to outperform when liquidity flows freely through the economy.

Bitcoin was originally built to exchange value peer to peer, without the need for third parties or centralised intermediaries. It served that role early on, particularly during the Silk Road era and through small-scale peer to peer transactions. Over time, its volatile price action and cyclical behaviour have aligned it more closely with risk assets, leading to a perception of it as a speculative vehicle, a ‘number go up’ asset.

As the space drifted from Bitcoin’s original intent, the past month has served as a reminder of its core purpose. This time, though, the shift comes with global awareness and real infrastructure backing the transition.

The US Government Are the Architects of Their Own Demise

It is not every day you watch the world’s biggest currency unravel in plain sight, and yet that is exactly what is happening with the US dollar. Orchestrated by the US Government itself.

January was one of the busiest months in recent memory, not for Bitcoin’s price action but for macro events. While Bitcoin has not yet made a significant move, under the surface new opportunities are emerging, triggered largely by the actions of the US Government.

Headlines were dominated by controversy over US involvement in Venezuela, a heated tariff standoff involving Greenland that eventually ended in a deal, and yet another looming government shutdown over ICE funding. While we will not dive into those in this note, two specific developments carry far more weight and could reshape not just Bitcoin’s future, but the global financial system as a whole.

We have been covering the deterioration in the Japanese economy and the yen for several months, and it now looks like the long anticipated intervention has arrived. The US is selling dollars to buy yen in an attempt to stabilise Japan’s currency. But this move has broader consequences. By actively weakening the dollar, the US is eroding its own citizens’ purchasing power. And because the US dollar is still the global reserve currency, this erosion affects nearly everyone, whether they realise it or not.

To dive deeper into the BOJ's role and how yen intervention may impact Bitcoin, read our full breakdown:Bitcoin, BOJ Yields, and the Yen: The Next Financial Tug-of-War

As a result, most assets priced in USD, which is nearly everything, appear to be rising. But if everything is increasing against the dollar, the key question becomes: are these assets actually gaining value, or is the dollar simply losing it?

Markets are already pricing in the intervention. The DXY has begun to decline against all major currencies including the yen, and traders are preparing for the official confirmation. This move may accelerate volatility, particularly in the yen carry trade. Institutions that borrowed yen using USD may now need to sell risk on assets to unwind their positions as the yen strengthens. That could bring temporary downside pressure, but at the same time, Bitcoin and other USD denominated assets are likely to benefit from continued dollar weakness.

But price action is not the core issue here. The real concern is the structural weakness of fiat currencies, and more critically, the vulnerability of the global reserve currency itself. This is not the first time the US has deliberately devalued the dollar to support a foreign currency. Each time it happens, it chips away at the dollar’s credibility and damages trust. It punishes the public, hollows out purchasing power, and nudges both individuals and institutions toward alternative stores of value. No matter which nation holds the reserve currency title, if the system is fiat based, it is inherently unsustainable. History is full of failed fiat regimes. This latest intervention is simply another signal that the US dollar is no longer fit to serve as the global benchmark. And that is exactly where Bitcoin enters the conversation.

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting different results. So no, a new fiat global reserve currency is extremely unlikely. Gold and silver have both played that role before, but each comes with limitations. Bitcoin offers a modern solution. It is not controlled by any single party, it cannot be diluted or manipulated, and it shares many of gold’s advantages while removing the pain points. It is highly divisible, borderless, has no physical storage requirements, and can be transacted and settled within minutes.

Bitcoin is the only real candidate for the next global reserve currency. Investors should not view it as a safe haven replacement or a trade for number go up. They should understand and embrace its core purpose. That purpose is only fulfilled once it becomes the global reserve and unit of account. Every move in price between now and then is simply the side effect of that long term trajectory.

The US Is Not on a Sustainable Path

The US Government is not only responsible for the demise of the dollar through monetary intervention, it is also undermining its own economy. US national debt has surged to $38.5 trillion, with over a third of it needing to be refinanced this year alone. This was a central point in our Stormrake 2026 thesis and one of the most bullish macro factors for Bitcoin.

Even Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, has admitted that the level of US debt is not unsustainable, but the path is unsustainable. Back in 2020, the national debt stood at $23 trillion. In just six years, that figure has increased by more than 50 percent. This has dramatically devalued the dollar and fuelled inflation through unchecked money printing. The strategy has been to kick the can down the road, but time is running out. Some forecasts put total US debt at $59 trillion within a decade, and potentially at $100 trillion by 2048 if this trend continues.

The issue is not just the total debt. It is also the debt to GDP ratio, which now exceeds 120 percent. This figure measures how much debt a country holds relative to its economic output, and it is widely used to assess fiscal sustainability. In general, the lower the better. Once a country crosses the 120 percent threshold, history suggests there is often no return. The result is either hyperinflation or the end of reserve currency status.

Weimar Germany, Venezuela and Argentina are all examples of hyperinflation following unsustainable debt to GDP levels. But the last time a global reserve currency faced this dilemma was post World War II Britain. The UK’s debt to GDP ratio hit 250 percent. While it avoided hyperinflation, the pound sterling quickly lost its global reserve status. It was replaced by the US dollar.

History may not repeat, but it often rhymes. Based on the current trajectory, the US dollar is likely to suffer a similar fate. Whether it ends in hyperinflation or a changing of the guard, both outcomes point to one thing. A bullish future for Bitcoin.

2025 to 2026: A Replay of 2021 to 2022?

One of the key narratives throughout January was whether this market is simply repeating the same cycle we saw four years ago. From a technical perspective and in terms of market structure, the similarities are undeniable. But the macro backdrop is very different.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/ccSqrsPc/

The chart above shows Bitcoin price action in the top panel and the US liquidity index in the bottom panel. There is no denying that the pattern between 2021 and 2022 and what we are seeing in 2025 and 2026 looks remarkably similar. In both cases we saw an all time high, followed by a deep correction, and then another marginal all time high. Back in 2021, the peak was followed by a nearly 80 percent drawdown during the bear market. While we have not yet seen a correction of that magnitude this time, many are calling for a repeat. But there is one crucial macro difference, liquidity.

Bitcoin thrives in high liquidity environments, and this time the liquidity dynamics are the opposite of what they were in 2022. Back then, the US Federal Reserve delivered one of the fastest rate hike cycles in history, drained liquidity by rolling over its balance sheet, and avoided new Treasury purchases. In short, they were pulling dollars out of the system.

In 2026, we are now seeing interest rate cuts, the Federal Reserve is once again buying US Treasuries, and liquidity is flowing back into the system. Quantitative tightening has ended, and the market is starting to price in the return of quantitative easing.

At this moment, liquidity appears to be basing, if not already rising. That matters. Bitcoin performs best in environments where liquidity is expanding. So when people argue that this cycle is simply repeating the last, they are often ignoring the single most important driver behind Bitcoin’s price action.

This does not mean Bitcoin cannot correct lower in the short term. But if liquidity continues to increase, it becomes extremely unlikely that Bitcoin will follow the same path it did in 2022.

In the News

Australian Inflation Surprises to the Upside

The Reserve Bank of Australia targets 2 to 3% inflation, but the latest data shows price growth rising faster than expected. December’s CPI came in at 3.4% year on year, with forecasts for this release at 3.5% and a 0.7% month on month rise. When the data landed on 28 January, CPI had jumped to 3.8% year on year and 1% month on month, well above estimates. With an RBA rate decision due early next month, market expectations have flipped. There is now a 79% chance of a rate hike, compared to just one week ago when no change was priced in at 89%.

Trump Nominates Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair

President Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh as the next chairman of the US Federal Reserve. Warsh, who is seen as traditionally hawkish on monetary policy, triggered selling pressure across gold, silver and Bitcoin when the announcement was made. However, one key distinction is that Warsh has expressed pro Bitcoin views over the years in interviews, calling it an innovation that challenges fiat mismanagement. His appointment adds to what is now a fully pro Bitcoin administration under Trump, which can only support Bitcoin in the long term.

Warsh is set to replace Jerome Powell when his term ends in May. There are two Federal Reserve meetings before then, but markets widely expect rates to remain on hold at both.

Gold and Silver Snap Their Parabolic Run With a Sharp Correction

Just days after crypto exchanges began listing futures markets for gold and silver, with users leveraging altcoins to chase exposure, both metals saw brutal corrections. While the crypto derivatives were not the direct cause, their sudden appearance marked a clear sign that the top was near.

Silver posted its worst single day performance in 40 years, falling nearly 30% in one session. Gold also dropped sharply, correcting by 10% in a single day. The parabolic move unwound quickly, triggering major drawdowns and leaving late entrants and retail traders caught on the wrong side of the trade.

Market Update

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in January 2025:

Bitcoin fell 4.3% in January
Ethereum fell 5.5% in January
BNB flipped XRP to climb into 4th spot
PAXG was a standout, up 25% when the majority of the market was red
The total crypto market cap fell by 3.7%

Video of the month

Could Bitcoin Fall to $60,000 in 2026 and What Should Investors Do?

Stay Ahead With the Stormrake Morning Note

For more frequent Bitcoin market insights, macro catalysts, and technical deep dives, subscribe to our daily Stormrake Morning Note.

Concise, insightful, and built to keep you informed about everything that is going on...

SUBSCRIBE HERE

Education: Understanding Global Macro Asset Classes

Many readers will recognise the visual above. It breaks down major global asset classes and shows the real size of each in comparison. Global real estate dominates the chart, followed by bonds, money markets and equities. Gold and silver, despite recent rallies, remain much smaller than equities. But what stands out most is Bitcoin's position.

This graphic is a reminder that asset valuations should be compared by market cap, not by price. Bitcoin trading at $90,000 and gold at $5,500 does not mean Bitcoin is more valuable. Market cap is the metric that matters.

Smaller market caps tend to come with more volatility. It takes far less capital to move a smaller market than a larger one. For context, gold gained $500 per ounce in just 72 hours, moving from $5,000 to $5,500. In that same window, its market cap increased by $3.5 trillion — more than double Bitcoin’s entire market cap, and it happened in under three days.

Bitcoin currently has a market cap of $1.7 trillion. That alone shows how early we still are. If Bitcoin were to reach silver’s current market cap of $6.666 trillion, it would imply a Bitcoin price of roughly $350,000. Bitcoin’s all time high in October 2025 saw a $2.5 trillion market cap with price peaking at $126,000.

A $6.666 trillion market cap is conservative if Bitcoin continues on its adoption curve and fulfills its long term purpose. Michael Saylor, Bitcoin’s most vocal bull, has projected a $441 trillion market cap by 2046 — absorbing a large share of gold’s monetary role — with a price target of $21 million per coin. While that figure seems outrageous to many, surpassing silver and matching gold’s market cap is not far fetched.

This also does not mean gold or silver have to fall for Bitcoin to rise. All three assets can rally together, with Bitcoin simply outperforming. At gold’s current market cap, Bitcoin would be priced at around $2 million.

To dig deeper into the comparison, let’s look at the Bitcoin to gold ratio.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/bNqKvWCt/

The chart above shows how many ounces of gold can be bought with one Bitcoin. Right now, the ratio sits at 16, meaning one Bitcoin can purchase 16 ounces of gold. This comes with Bitcoin at $88,000 in a corrective period and gold at record highs around $5,500. The ratio peaked at 41 in late 2024. Since then, gold has outperformed Bitcoin by 60%, pulling the ratio back to levels not seen since August 2023.

So what does this mean?

It is a strong signal of undervaluation. The last time the ratio was this low, Bitcoin was trading between $25,000 and $30,000. Despite now sitting at $88,000, Bitcoin has underperformed against gold, returning to relative levels from years ago. That divergence makes this a clear buying opportunity for those looking to rotate back into Bitcoin. When the ratio resets higher, Bitcoin typically sees strong outperformance in the following months.

You're still early. Out of all the major asset classes, Bitcoin makes up just 0.2% of global value. Regardless of its nominal price, as Bitcoin’s market cap grows and it continues gaining market share against other global assets, the dollar figure will follow.

Written by Alexandar Artis

Start Your Brokerage Account

Get Started

If you enjoyed this Rake Review, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

The Rake Review: September 2025

Wed, 01 Oct 2025 16:12:56 +1000

The Calm Before Q4’s Big Move

September has wrapped up. Bitcoin fought through historical stigmas, liquidations, and manipulation to close green. A new narrative dominated headlines and shook the space, while fresh signs of adoption continue to emerge. Through it all, Bitcoin held firm and September has now set the stage for October.

Driven by Expectations and Historical Patterns

We’ve just wrapped up Bitcoin’s historically worst month of the year, September. And much like the rest of 2025 so far, it was mixed. Both bulls and bears had their moments in the sun, but by the end of it, Bitcoin once again fought its way back on top.

The dominant narrative this year has been interest rates. Off the back of 2024, where we saw a full 100bps cut between September and December, markets began pricing in the potential for up to five rate cuts in 2025. That idea fuelled rallies across all risk-on assets. Fast forward to today, and with only two decisions left on the calendar, it’s clear there won’t be five cuts. But despite that, markets have still pushed to new all-time highs across multiple sectors.

After months of pressure, including criticism from the US President, Powell and the Federal Reserve finally made the call to cut rates. While the actual cut didn’t move price much on the day, the signal was loud and clear. The door is now open. We already saw a preview of this at Jackson Hole in August, where Powell hinted at a shift in policy for the upcoming September meeting. Markets responded with strength. With two more cuts still expected, the final quarter of the year could carry serious potential for further all-time highs and broad risk-on strength.

When it comes to price manipulation, Bitcoin is no stranger. Large exchanges and institutions regularly push price in a certain direction to trigger liquidations on leveraged positions. This is often done to collect additional fees or to drive price lower for better entries before a reversal. These moves aren’t sustainable because they’re not driven by genuine buying or selling interest. Instead, they’re often triggered by large players temporarily moving price to force liquidations, not to establish long-term positions.

Over the past year, we’ve seen several brutal liquidation days, mostly targeting overleveraged longs. While 2025 hasn’t seen as many as previous years, December 2024 still had multiple days with over $1 billion in liquidations. The largest came in at $1.8 billion, which triggered a 6% drop in Bitcoin. Fast forward to this September, we saw two more days in the same week with over $1 billion wiped from the market. The biggest was on the 22nd, when $1.7 billion was liquidated. But this time, the reaction was far more muted. Bitcoin dropped less than 2.5%.

To put that into context, the FTX collapse in 2022 triggered $1.5 billion in liquidations over six days, and Bitcoin dropped nearly 30%. That comparison highlights how far the market has matured. Institutional adoption and deeper liquidity mean that multi-billion dollar liquidation events now have a reduced impact on price.

As Bitcoin continues to grow, these events will likely have less and less influence on daily price action. But manipulation will always remain. The main takeaway is that these liquidation pullbacks continue to present prime opportunities to accumulate. Because no matter how wild things get in the short term, Bitcoin’s long-term direction hasn’t changed — it still moves up and to the right.

Bull Markets Are Fuelled by Narratives

Bull markets are driven by narratives, whether in crypto or traditional markets. These narratives can be sector-focused or broad market-wide themes, but they all drive price action. Investors chase the hottest stories, and that chase fuels momentum and outsized performance. Once one narrative fades, another takes its place. It’s a cycle within a cycle.

Some of the strongest bull markets have been powered by genuine macro narratives. In 2021, we saw the post-pandemic stimulus era take hold. Government handouts and free-flowing capital didn’t just pump stock and crypto markets — they sent everything into bull mode. The current bull run, while slightly different, is no less powerful. Some argue it’s a tech and AI-driven rally in traditional markets, while others point to Bitcoin’s breakout being led by institutional adoption. Both are true, but the foundation of this entire move is simple: the money printer is back, inflation remains sticky, and investors are looking for alternative vehicles to generate returns and preserve wealth.

The bull run out of the pandemic and the current one share a common core — easy money and systemic macro pressure. As Bitcoin matures, its correlation with these broader macro themes continues to strengthen.

Not every narrative is shared across asset classes. That’s nothing new. Narratives have always defined market cycles, and the history of the S&P 500 is proof of that. Bitcoin is still young and hasn’t lived through even a fraction of what traditional markets have experienced. Traditional markets have seen cycles shaped by tech dominance after the GFC, the Dot-Com boom, post-war economic expansions and the Reagan bull market. Even now, gold is leading in performance and that strength is flowing into gold miners and related equities.

Crypto has had its own defining cycles too. In 2013, Bitcoin’s “digital gold” and “safe haven” status took off during the Cyprus banking crisis. Google searches spiked 10x, and Bitcoin rallied 5x on the back of it. In 2017, the ICO craze drove altcoins and Ethereum to dizzying heights.

This current crypto bull run has had no shortage of narratives either. It started with the Bitcoin ETF rumours and eventual approvals, which helped drive further institutional adoption. Then the narrative shifted to inflation and the macro setup. From there, sector-specific rallies began to break out. Solana pushed to new highs off the back of the memecoin casino in January. AI-focused projects like FET (now ASI) and Bittensor (TAO) caught strong bids. Ethereum and its broader ecosystem also saw renewed attention as institutions began building and adopting ETH-native infrastructure.

And then came a new narrative.

The headlines in September were dominated by one theme — Decentralised Exchanges (DEXes). Earlier in the year, Hyperliquid launched its token and quickly made waves, establishing itself as a top 20 crypto by market cap and capturing a large share of onchain DEX users. But September saw a shift. Aster, a new DEX built on Binance Smart Chain and backed by major players in the space, exploded onto the scene.

The result was a major user migration from Hyperliquid to Aster as the hype built. ASTER rallied from under $0.02 to over $2.40 in under two weeks, while HYPE fell over 30% after setting a new all-time high earlier in the month. Aster’s explosive launch also had a ripple effect on BNB, the native token of Binance Smart Chain, which hit an all-time high off the back of increased onchain activity.

The question now is whether Aster can hold the momentum. Hyperliquid has already established itself as a long-term player. If Aster can maintain its user base and liquidity, it could shape up to be the one-two punch in the DEX space.

This was a clear sector-driven narrative within the broader market. Looking ahead, the next narrative is already forming — interest rate cuts and the historical strength of Q4, which has consistently been the most bullish quarter for risk-on assets.

September Holds Strong, Uptober Now in Focus

Heading into September, Bitcoin was under pressure. Bears were out in force, calling for the end of the bull market, and history was on their side. September is Bitcoin’s worst-performing month on record. Most would have bet on a red monthly close. But once again, Bitcoin proved the doubters wrong, closing the month green and up 5%, despite late-month pressure from liquidations and expiring options.

Even with that bearish backdrop and sentiment, Bitcoin held its ground. Now it is preparing for the most bullish period of the year — Uptober and the fourth quarter. October ranks as Bitcoin’s fourth-best month by average return at 15.2%, but it stands out as the most commonly green month, with only four red Octobers since 2011.

In addition to seasonality, October is expected to bring the penultimate rate cut of the year. As of writing, there is a 90% chance of a 25 bps cut. While the market may already be anticipating it, the fact that it is happening adds another bullish catalyst to what is shaping up to be a strong month for risk-on assets.

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/zRfohOjE/

Looking at the current technical picture, Bitcoin is closing out September in a relatively neutral stance. Momentum is sideways, and structure is in no man’s land, with a lower high and a higher low forming the present range. This setup gives both bulls and bears a clean shot at taking control in October. However, historical performance and macro catalysts suggest the bulls are more likely to come out on top. If Bitcoin simply matches its average return for October, price would break to a new all-time high above $131,000.

Although September may have felt like a flat or slightly bearish month, the reality is that it was quietly bullish. And now, as we enter the most favourable time of the year, the opportunity is still there. Bitcoin is trading at a near 10% discount from its all-time high, and many altcoins are offering even deeper discounts.

You do not want to be caught bearish or sidelined going into this stretch. Time and time again, investors who wait end up buying higher or missing the move altogether. The setup is clear, and the playbook has not changed.

And we have not even talked about November yet. With an average return of 40.5%, that discussion is for the next Rake Review

In the News:

FTX Creditor Payouts Underway at Discounted Rates:

FTX has announced the third round of creditor repayments, with $1.6 billion set to be returned to users. These repayments are based on the 2022 valuations of the lost assets, not current market prices.

To illustrate:

Bitcoin: $30,000 per BTC
Solana: $30 per SOL
Ethereum: $3,900 per ETH

This means anyone who lost 1 BTC will only receive $30,000, even though Bitcoin trades significantly higher today. For Bitcoin and Solana holders, the haircut is substantial. Ethereum holders are slightly better off, given ETH has largely moved sideways over the past few years.

What matters now is what recipients decide to do with the funds. Some may take the opportunity to re-enter the market, others may remain in cash. Either way, this fresh injection of liquidity has the potential to act as a tailwind for crypto. If even a portion of that capital flows back into Bitcoin or the broader market, it could help sustain the momentum heading into Q4.

Wall Street Embraces Tokenisation:

NASDAQ has announced that it has filed with the US SEC to allow tokenised trading of stocks and ETFs. This move has sparked a wave of optimism, providing confidence that traditional finance is beginning to incorporate Web3 elements into its offerings.

Tokenised equities would allow investors to purchase fractions of stocks, similar to how one can buy fractions of a Bitcoin. This is a key barrier being removed for smaller retail investors. If approved, this would further legitimise the crypto space and open the door for deeper institutional and traditional flows into digital asset ecosystems.

The pendulum has now swung the other way and there may be no turning back. If this gets the green light, expect a strong move in crypto markets as this narrative shift takes hold.

US Government Shutdown Imminent Amid Political Deadlock:

The month looks set to end with a US government shutdown, following stalled bipartisan negotiations over spending cuts, border security, and policy amendments. No continuing resolution has been passed, and prediction markets are now pricing in an 85% to 86% chance of a shutdown as lawmakers return to Capitol Hill amid heightened political tension.

A shutdown is a partial halt of non-essential federal operations, triggered when Congress fails to approve funding legislation. So what does this mean for markets?

Risk-on assets may face heightened volatility due to increased uncertainty, while risk-off assets such as gold are likely to benefit and rally. The real question is how Bitcoin reacts. Will it behave like a risk-on asset and see volatility, or will it begin to attract capital like a risk-off hedge and see an influx of liquidity as investors look to reduce exposure elsewhere?

Market Update:

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in September 2025:

Bitcoin increased by 5.21%
Ethereum decreased by 4.43%
The top 10 remained unchanged from last month
BNB was the top performer in the top 10, climbing nearly 20%
ASTER exploded onto the scene and quickly became a top 50 crypto project

Video of the month:

Michael Saylor on Bitcoin & Credit Markets: Bitcoin Treasuries Unconference Full Panel and Q&A

Education: Bitcoin’s Correlation: Gold, Equities, or Its Own Path?

There are several conflicting views when it comes to Bitcoin and what it actually tracks in the broader market. Some refer to it as ‘Digital Gold’, positioning it as an alternative safe haven asset, while critics label it the ‘Leveraged Nasdaq’ or treat it as just another tech stock.

So what does Bitcoin really behave like? Is it a risk-on or risk-off asset, or does it move entirely on its own terms? Let’s break it down.

Correlation in this context is measured as a 120-day rolling correlation. A value above 0 indicates a positive correlation, meaning both assets tend to move together. A value below 0 signals a negative correlation, where the assets move inversely.

Bitcoin and Gold

Let’s start with gold, given Bitcoin’s nickname.

Despite often being referred to as ‘Digital Gold’, the two assets have rarely moved in tandem over Bitcoin’s lifecycle. The highest recorded correlation between them came during the pandemic, where it peaked at 0.5. During that period, Bitcoin rallied 400% while gold climbed 67%, as investors fled to inflation-resistant assets.

Since then, however, the relationship has faded. Today, the correlation hovers between 0 and 0.1, and the long-term average since Bitcoin’s inception is close to 0. In short, the two assets rarely move together, despite the narrative.

The divergence has been especially clear in 2025. Gold is up nearly 50% year to date, solidifying its status as the world’s hedge asset. Bitcoin, meanwhile, has spent much of the year consolidating. The market still appears to classify Bitcoin as a growth asset, while gold remains the preferred hedge.

Bitcoin and the S&P 500

In Bitcoin’s earlier years, especially pre-pandemic, its correlation to the S&P 500 was minimal, and at times even negative. It moved largely on its own, often dictated by crypto-native catalysts such as the Mt Gox collapse, regulatory crackdowns from China, and market cycles driven by halving events and ICOs.

That changed during the pandemic. As central banks flooded the economy with stimulus, asset classes began to move together, and Bitcoin’s correlation with equities climbed. The peak came in May 2022 during a wave of rate hikes and geopolitical shocks, including the conflict in Eastern Europe, where both Bitcoin and the S&P 500 dropped sharply. At that point, correlation reached 0.68.

Unlike its relationship with gold, Bitcoin has maintained a moderately strong correlation with equities as it continues to mature. Institutional adoption has increased, and Bitcoin now reacts more consistently to traditional macro events. As of today, the correlation with the S&P 500 sits around 0.5.

Although the S&P 500 pushed to new all-time highs throughout September while Bitcoin moved sideways, the 120-day rolling correlation remains intact. If Bitcoin catches a bid in October, we could see that connection strengthen again.

Bitcoin Is Maturing, but Not a Hedge Yet

For most of its life, Bitcoin moved independently from both traditional equities and hard assets. But as the asset has matured, its relationship with equities, particularly the S&P 500, has become more apparent. Bitcoin now reacts more predictably to macro headlines like inflation, interest rate decisions, tariffs, and geopolitical conflicts.

That said, Bitcoin still has its own isolated catalysts — whether it is ancient wallets moving, major project failures, or sudden surges in institutional or government adoption. These are unique to the crypto space and can drive movement independently from traditional markets.

However, when it comes to broader market forces, Bitcoin currently behaves more like a risk-on asset. While the ‘Digital Gold’ narrative remains aspirational, and may eventually become reality, for now Bitcoin is more closely tied to equity market sentiment than it is to gold.

Written by Alexandar Artis

Start Your Brokerage Account

Get Started

If you enjoyed this Rake Review, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.