Stormrake - Insights #White House Crypto Summit

A 30-Day Ceasefire in Ukraine—Relief Rally or Bear Trap?

Wed, 12 Mar 2025 15:31:24 +1100

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Donald Trump vowed to end the conflict in Eastern Europe on day one of his presidency—an obvious hyperbole—but expectations remained that he would resolve it far more efficiently than the Biden administration. Overnight, news emerged that Ukraine has agreed to a 30-day ceasefire, coinciding with the U.S. preparing to lift its military aid restrictions on the country.

This development follows last week’s highly publicized meeting between Trump, JD Vance, and Volodymyr Zelensky, which reportedly turned into a heated exchange. After the fallout, the U.S. pulled military aid from Ukraine, prompting concerns across Europe about a prolonged war—fueling a rally in EU defense stocks. However, a minerals deal between the U.S. and Ukraine was soon signed, signaling potential progress.

Bitcoin Reacts as Ceasefire Boosts Markets

Since the ceasefire announcement, Bitcoin has surged nearly 5%, climbing from $79K to $83K. If Vladimir Putin agrees to the ceasefire as well, it could serve as the macro catalyst markets need for a broader turnaround. However, this may be only a short-term relief rally—the real question is: what happens when the 30-day ceasefire expires?

Despite this temporary surge, the bearish grip on markets remains firm, and broader economic uncertainty suggests any rally may be short-lived. We’re not out of the woods yet.

CPI Data Incoming: Will It Spark More Volatility?

Tonight, fresh CPI data is set to drop, with expectations pointing to declines across all three readings—a potentially bullish sign. The data release at 11:30 PM AEST is likely to inject volatility into the market, possibly providing Bitcoin the boost it needs to break out of its bearish structure.

This Trump-driven volatility isn’t going anywhere, and sharp corrections should be expected throughout the year. As I’ve said countless times, these dips are golden buying opportunities. Time and time again, I’ve been proven right—and those who followed my advice have reaped massive gains.

Stormrake Spotlight: Sonic (S) ($0.43)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/6wntRlk5/

Sonic is currently holding above the bullish order block, a key level to sustain a higher low. If Bitcoin builds on its recent momentum, this could signal a retest of its recent highs—a positive setup for Sonic.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/qtUudBuD/

Bitcoin initially looked set to drop lower after rejecting the $81.7K level and the 55 EMA, falling to a low of $79K. However, the ceasefire news reversed momentum, pushing BTC to $83K.

Notably, the 21 EMA and 55 EMA are nearing a bullish crossover—the first since March 5. However, signs of bearish divergence suggest that BTC may face another pullback, reinforcing a lower high scenario.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 11 Mar: $ - 219.7 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/JD9E55MC/

Ethereum bounced from a key support level yesterday but was rejected at the 55 EMA following the ceasefire-driven rally. ETH remains weak, underperforming Bitcoin, and still looks bearish.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 11 Mar: $ - 9.8 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

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It’s Not Just Crypto—Global Markets Are Crashing

Tue, 11 Mar 2025 12:33:20 +1100

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Market sentiment is at its lowest in almost three years, with liquidations surpassing those seen during both the Luna and FTX collapses. However, unlike 2022, this isn’t solely a crypto crash—global markets are correcting.

Bitcoin is down 1.5%, falling back below $80K. The S&P 500 has dropped 2.7%, gold is down 0.8%, and even the US dollar is weakening. So, where is the money flowing?

A Repeat of the Yen Carry Trade Unwinding?

Cast your mind back to mid-2024 when the yen carry trade imploded, triggering a market-wide sell-off. Investors rushed to repay their Yen-denominated debts, liquidating US equities and other risk-on assets purchased through leveraged yen positions.

Could we be witnessing a similar move today? Possibly. Over the past two months, the S&P 500 and crypto markets have lost a combined $5.5 trillion in market cap. The S&P 500 is down nearly 10% from its all-time high set last month, while Bitcoin has dropped 30% from its January peak.

In January, the USD/JPY pair surged to 159, nearly reclaiming its 2024 high before the previous carry trade unwind. This rally was impressive, considering it had dropped to 139 after that unwinding. Since January’s high, the Yen has almost mirrored its July 2024 price action, increasing 8%, Yen bond yields have surged— the cost of borrowing Yen has increased significantly.

Now, assets acquired with borrowed Yen are declining, forcing investors to unwind positions. While it’s too early to confirm another full-scale carry trade unwinding, the signs are undeniable:

The Yen is strengthening
Japanese Government Bond yields are increasing
The USD/JPY pair peaked just before Japan raised interest rates (similar to July 2023)
Risk-on assets are falling, suggesting a scramble to repay Yen-denominated debts

All the hallmarks of a carry trade unwind and mass deleveraging event are in play.

Liquidity Will Return—Bitcoin Will Benefit

Despite these developments, as mentioned yesterday, global money supply continues to expand in an attempt to engineer a soft landing. Once conditions shift, excess liquidity will flow back into risk-on assets—especially Bitcoin. The play is simple: weather the storm by staying patient. The tide will turn—use these dips to accumulate more Bitcoin.

Stormrake Spotlight: Sonic (S) ($0.43)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/iSExsRPH/

Despite the broader market weakness, Sonic has outperformed most cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin. While it’s down 1.53% on the day, this resilience is a strong indicator of its potential. Typically, altcoins suffer disproportionately in bearish conditions, yet Sonic is holding steady—a glimpse of the strength it may exhibit once the market turns.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/dLw0POHU/

Bitcoin has continued its decline, now breaking below the lows from two weeks ago, forming a fresh low of $77.4K. This move further cements the bearish structure, with consecutive lower highs and lower lows.

Our attention now turns to the previous all-time high from March 2024 at $73.8K—a critical level where we expect buying demand to emerge.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 10 Mar: $ - 41.0 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/PEzGcyqU/

Ethereum has dropped to its lowest level since November 2023, continuing its pattern of lower highs and lower lows.

ETH has just tapped a key support zone, which may trigger a short-term bounce, but as long as broader market conditions remain bearish, Ethereum will continue to struggle.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 10 Mar: $ - 34.0 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Are There Any Bullish Catalysts Left for Bitcoin?

Mon, 10 Mar 2025 14:52:29 +1100

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Bitcoin isn’t where many expected it to be. 2024 set the perfect foundation for a massive 2025—ETFs were launched, all-time highs were reached, the fourth halving event occurred, a pro-crypto president won the US election, and inflation appeared to be under control. These factors pushed Bitcoin beyond $100K, and talk of a $200K Bitcoin was everywhere. It wasn’t an outlandish prediction, especially with major catalysts expected in 2025 to propel Bitcoin even higher.

One of these catalysts was the creation of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, which was proposed to purchase 200K BTC annually for the next five years. Another was the expectation of five interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve in 2025.

Well, the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve was officially created a few days ago, but let’s just say it didn’t have the bullish effect many had anticipated. Instead of sparking a rally, it triggered a sell-off as the details left many investors disappointed.

So, what about the five expected rate cuts? Unfortunately, that’s off the table too. New Trump tariffs have caused inflation expectations to rise, derailing hopes that inflation was fully under control. While many expected rate cuts to begin in March, the first cut is now projected for June. Jerome Powell recently stated that the economic landscape is "extremely uncertain" due to tariff wars, but the Fed has the flexibility to remain patient and avoid rushing into policy changes.

So Is the Bull Run Over?

We’re now in March, and Bitcoin is down nearly 30% from its all-time high. The bears are in control, altcoins are bleeding, and two of the year’s biggest catalysts have either disappointed or remain dictated by an uncertain macro environment.

But is the bull run over?

Not so fast.

One key metric for Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory is M2—the global money supply. M2 continues to increase, and money printers are coming back on in the United States and Europe. Yes, more money in the economy increases inflation, but it also means more liquidity flows into investments—Bitcoin included.

Cast your mind back to 2020/2021. The last time M2 significantly increased, it was the driving force behind the bull market that sent Bitcoin to $69K. Bitcoin historically lags behind M2 by approximately 10 weeks, and if you look at the chart below, you’ll notice Bitcoin’s price (blue) mirroring the green line of M2, which recently formed a trough. Bitcoin is now approaching its own trough, and if history repeats itself, a rally should follow.

The Verdict: A Buying Opportunity, Not the End

No, it’s not over. Use this opportunity to pick up Bitcoin and dollar-cost average into altcoins.

Stormrake Spotlight: Sonic (S) ($0.43)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/xLyIWvXX/

As mentioned yesterday, when Bitcoin struggles, Sonic struggles even more. Yesterday, Bitcoin fell 6.5%, while Sonic dropped 14%. In these bearish market conditions, Sonic will continue to underperform, but for those looking to dollar-cost average, these drops present golden buying opportunities.

Last month, Sonic dropped to $0.31 before rallying to $0.99 within weeks, even while the broader market was consolidating. On-chain data continues to show strong performance, while the price action lags behind on-chain fundamentals—a setup that historically leads to outsized rallies when market sentiment shifts.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/rpZycb3E/

Bitcoin has fallen below the key level of $81.6K after dropping over 6% yesterday, remaining in an extremely bearish structure. There’s very little support between current prices and the next key level at $73.8K.

If Bitcoin fails to reclaim $81.6K, a move towards $73.8K is likely. Should this occur, expect a sharp drop, but also a quick recovery as buyers step in.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 9 Mar: $ (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/3NGCzUt2/

Ethereum fell below $2,000 for the third time this month, but has reclaimed the key level of $2,019 once again. Momentum and structure remain bearish, and if Bitcoin continues lower—potentially to $73K—then Ethereum could drop to the monthly CPR of $1,765.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 9 Mar: $ (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Crypto Summit Falls Flat, Investors Left Wanting More

Sun, 09 Mar 2025 11:34:50 +1100

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Today, two of the most influential figures in financial markets took the stage—Donald Trump at the crypto summit and US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in Chicago.

The summit largely reiterated what had already been announced. Yesterday, David Sacks revealed that Trump had signed an executive order establishing the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR). Trump reaffirmed his commitment to holding all seized cryptocurrencies rather than selling them, reassuring taxpayers that the SBR's acquisition funds wouldn’t come from their pockets. He also spoke about the need for greater regulatory clarity.

However, the summit left investors disappointed. Many had hoped for a firm commitment to purchasing new Bitcoin for the reserve, as proposed during Trump’s election campaign and outlined in the Lummis Bill—which suggested the US government would acquire 200,000 BTC annually for the next five years.

Powell’s Speech Amid Political Uncertainty

Amidst ongoing political uncertainty, Powell reassured his audience that the Federal Reserve is in a position to wait for greater clarity before making any policy decisions.

“The White House is in the process of implementing significant policy changes in four distinct areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation,” Powell stated at the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum. “It is the net effect of these policy changes that will matter for the economy and for the path of monetary policy.”

In other words, the Fed isn’t rushing to react—it’s waiting to see how these policies unfold before making any major moves. Markets should brace for a period of heightened uncertainty, where data dependence will be key.

Stormrake Spotlight: Sonic (S) ($0.50)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/k1EPf42o/

Sonic (S) continues to struggle and will likely remain under pressure in poor market conditions. It’s currently sitting at a key level that has previously acted as both support and resistance, but its next move will be largely dependent on Bitcoin’s price action. If BTC continues to fall, S will follow. However, once BTC flips bullish, S should find support and rally.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/R430RbuV/

Bitcoin remains under pressure at key resistance levels, facing another rejection from $89.9k overnight, now trading back at the lower support of $85.2k. This rejection has shifted momentum in favour of the bears, stalling bullish progression.

BTC has now created a lower high at $92.5k but continues to form higher lows. Price is in no man’s land.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 7 Mar: $ (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/UyzXzGe0/

Despite Ethereum’s bearish momentum and structure, it continues to hover around the key level of $2,171, acting as a magnet. Since we are below this level and bears are in control, the favoured move is back down to $2,019.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 7 Mar: $ (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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BREAKING: Trump Signs Executive Order Establishing Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

Sun, 09 Mar 2025 11:13:38 +1100

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All Bitcoiners and cryptocurrency investors can finally breathe—the long-awaited election promise of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) has been fulfilled. Just moments ago, President Trump signed an Executive Order establishing the SBR.

Trump had pledged not to sell any of the BTC seized by previous administrations, and that promise has been kept. The SBR will be created using the 200,000 Bitcoin already held by the US government from confiscated funds.

As the SBR grows, the US will retain all Bitcoin within the reserve, holding it as a long-term store of value. Think of it as a digital Fort Knox—fitting, given that Bitcoin has long been referred to as ‘digital gold’.

But what about altcoins? The Executive Order also establishes a Digital Asset Stockpile, which will consist of forfeited or seized altcoins from criminal or civil proceedings. However, unlike the Bitcoin reserve, the government will not actively acquire more assets for the Stockpile beyond those obtained through forfeitures.

This is exactly what many crypto investors have been waiting for—official institutional and government recognition of Bitcoin’s value. This move is nothing but long-term bullish for Bitcoin and the wider crypto space.

For those who have doubted Bitcoin’s future, the creation of the SBR has solidified its position as a store of value. If the US government is doing it, why aren’t you? You’re not bullish enough...

But the market has sold off on the news. Why?

In this morning’s Morning Note, Bitcoin was trading above $90K and holding strong. The Sacks announcement was made just over 30 minutes ago, and Bitcoin has since dropped to $85K—down over 5% from earlier today.

200,000 BTC is an interesting number—last year’s proposed Bitcoin bill suggested purchasing 200K BTC annually for the next five years to build the reserve. But now that the US government already holds 200K Bitcoin, will they buy another 200K this year? Unlikely—and that’s likely why the market has sold off.

As always, this is short-term noise. The dip is creating golden buying opportunities for Bitcoin. Don’t panic—take advantage of these discounts, and contact your Stormrake Broker to act accordingly.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Bitcoin Consolidates Ahead of High-Stakes Crypto Summit

Sun, 09 Mar 2025 11:08:19 +1100

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Tomorrow is shaping up to be one of the biggest days in crypto. But before that unfolds, a couple of developments over the last 24 hours have had a slight impact on the market.

Firstly, Trump has once again delayed tariffs—this time on Mexico and Canada. He stated that tariffs on Mexico will not apply to USMCA-compliant goods, with the delay extending until 2 April. Roughly 50% of imports from Mexico comply with USMCA, while 38% of Canadian imports meet the criteria. This continuous flip-flopping on tariffs only adds to economic uncertainty, creating a less stable environment. Market volatility remains extremely high, with levels over 2x higher than during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and nearing those seen during the Covid pandemic.

Two Bitcoin-related headlines also dropped. Let’s start with the bad: Mt. Gox has moved 12,000 BTC—worth around $1 billion—to an unknown wallet. Any Mt. Gox movement stirs uncertainty and fear in the market, and this is no exception. Now for the good news: Texas is one step closer to forming a Bitcoin reserve, as the bill proposing its creation has passed the Senate and now heads to the House of Representatives.

On the altcoin front, we’ve had some incredibly bullish news—Sui has just partnered with World Liberty Financial (Donald Trump’s crypto project). If you recall yesterday’s graphic highlighting crypto projects poised to benefit from pro-US crypto policies, SUI was already in two bullish categories: Made in the USA and Received a White House invitation. Now, with this new partnership, Sui’s bullish case continues to strengthen. As a result, SUI surged 14% intraday and remains up 5% on the day, even as most of the market trends red.

Now, attention shifts to 4:30 am tomorrow: the White House Crypto Summit. At the same time, Jerome Powell will be speaking in Chicago. Investors will be watching both closely, as each event is likely to have a significant impact on the market.

Stormrake Spotlight: Sonic (S) ($0.55)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/lDibIoC4/

Sonic reached the top of its accumulation zone yesterday before being rejected, causing it to fall back below this range. While this is short-term bearish, we are now approaching a key accumulation level that has provided strong support for Sonic over the past month. However, the negative price action is not being driven by Sonic’s on-chain performance. Instead, S is simply following broader market weakness.

On-chain, Sonic continues to impress. In the past 24 hours, its app revenue has outperformed some of the largest crypto projects in the space. Sonic’s app revenue hit $270K, surpassing Sui’s $111K and Avax’s $167K. When comparing valuations, Sonic’s FDV (Fully Diluted Value) stands at $1.8B, while Sui is at $25B and Avax at $10B—highlighting how undervalued Sonic is relative to its competitors.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/NRPUqN2o/

Bitcoin reached the $92.5K key level yesterday but met strong resistance, pulling back to the middle CPR band and 200 EMA for support. This level has so far held, maintaining BTC’s bullish structure and momentum. With all eyes on tomorrow’s Summit, any positive news could send BTC surging toward $100K.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 6 Mar: $ (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/0gmEXVVq/

Ethereum continues to find support at $2,171, a critical level to maintain bullish momentum. Yesterday, ETH attempted to retest the CPR level but was halted at the 200 EMA, leading to a pullback. The next 24 hours will be pivotal, as ETH’s trajectory will largely depend on the outcome of the Summit.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 6 Mar: $ (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.