Stormrake - Insights #XRPStormrake - Insights #XRPhttps://www.stormrake.com/blogs/tag/xrpWed, 08 Apr 2026 19:58:36 +1000http://zoho.com/sites/<![CDATA[The Rake Review: August 2025]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/the-rake-review-august-2025July was a month of contrasts for Bitcoin, with decade-old coins suddenly moving, fresh all-time highs, and the first major crypto regulations landing. The back half of the year has started stronger than expected, but can this momentum carry into a full-fledged altseason?]]>

From All Time Highs to Bear Market Calls

August was a month of extremes for Bitcoin, with fresh all-time highs, sharp reversals, and a whale-triggered sell-off that shook sentiment. The cycle clock is ticking, and with rate cuts approaching and macro conditions shifting, the question now is whether the market has one more leg higher or if the top is already in.

A Month of Extremes: New Highs, Whale Dumps, and Macro Whiplash

They say the best thing you can do after buying Bitcoin is forget about it and come back in ten years. You miss the euphoric rallies and the soul-crushing drawdowns, but when you zoom out a decade later, odds are you are sitting on something worth significantly more than what you paid.

But for many, the volatility in between is part of the appeal. It draws speculators in, even as seasoned Bitcoiners grow numb to it. This August, that volatility was back in full force.

Coming into the month, two factors were expected to shape price action: the ongoing geopolitical tension between Ukraine and Russia, and the latest US inflation data. Both played their part. But the most dramatic twist came from a whale no one saw coming.

August began, like much of the year, with macro tensions. Putin floated a fresh ceasefire proposal that was swiftly dismissed by Zelenskyy. Reports of progress surfaced, with a potential trilateral meeting between Trump, Zelenskyy and Putin discussed. Nothing came of it in the end, but the market moved quickly. Bitcoin surged to a fresh all-time high above $124K following inflation data.

Ironically, while Bitcoin was created to hedge against inflation, it now reacts directly to inflation prints, rate cut speculation and the words of one man: Jerome Powell. As Bitcoin continues to mature, its correlation with traditional markets is strengthening. The same forces moving equities are moving crypto.

The first major driver was CPI. It came in slightly better than expected and gave Bitcoin the momentum to break out and push to new all time highs. But just days later, PPI told a very different story. The hotter-than-expected print triggered a sharp sell-off in risk markets. Bitcoin tumbled. Then Powell spoke.

Arguably the most influential voice in markets right now, Powell delivered a dovish tone in his policy speech that sent risk assets flying. Bitcoin rallied hard and attempted to reclaim the lost momentum post PPI data. It looked like momentum was back. Then the second domino fell.

A Bitcoin whale offloaded 24,000 BTC the day after Powell’s speech. That single move, worth $2.7 billion at the time, wiped over $4,000 off the price in a matter of minutes. As large as that number is, it was just a fraction of this whale’s holdings. They still have around 150,000 BTC sitting in their wallet. For comparison, last month eight wallets moved 80,000 BTC and triggered another market drop. If this whale ever decides to clear out their entire bag, the short-term impact would be massive. But for long-term buyers with patience, those kinds of moves could offer generational entry points.

Is Time Running Out for the Bull Run?

It’s the uncomfortable question that tends to get louder as prices climb higher: are we nearing the end of the bull run?

Bitcoin has now spent nearly three years climbing out from its 2022 cycle low, following a rhythm that long-time holders know well. This market structure, often referred to as the four-year cycle, has defined every major bull and bear market since Bitcoin’s inception. The premise is simple. A halving triggers a multi-year rally, followed by a year-long cooldown. Historically, cycle tops have formed around 500 days after each halving.

Right now, we are 490 days out from the most recent halving on 20 April 2024. Bitcoin recently tagged $124K and is beginning to show signs of slowing. That puts us right in the historical window where previous tops have occurred. The chart below shows the time elapsed between each halving and its corresponding cycle peak. Once again, Bitcoin appears to be tracking the same cadence.
Still, a growing school of thought argues that this time could be different. As Bitcoin continues to mature and becomes more integrated into institutional portfolios, the four-year cycle may be losing relevance. In this view, price action is becoming less about the halving and more about macro trends, liquidity flows and key narratives.

Trump’s influence, for example, whether through social media posts, executive orders or pro-crypto policy shifts, has had visible effects on Bitcoin’s price. Similarly, high-profile players like Michael Saylor and Larry Fink can move markets. If BlackRock were to announce even a 1 percent allocation across its products, Bitcoin would likely reprice well before any halving-driven supply dynamics had a chance to kick in.

That’s not to say halvings no longer matter. Their impact just seems to be fading with each cycle. Bitcoin is maturing. Liquidity is deeper. And price behaviour is starting to look more like a high-beta risk asset than a niche inflation hedge. Correlation with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 continues to rise, and policy decisions from the Fed or Treasury are now setting the tone for short-term price direction.

Even with these changes, this current cycle still looks and feels a lot like the previous ones. The timing, structure and sentiment all point toward a market nearing its peak. Some are already calling a top, while others believe we could still see a final blow-off phase that exceeds expectations. That view depends heavily on sustained risk appetite and continued institutional inflows.

Bitcoin’s history has shown that cycles, sentiment shifts and major market events tend to repeat in familiar ways. The details may evolve, but the patterns often stay the same. Whether this marks the end of the bull run or just the beginning of its final leg, one truth remains: short-term volatility does not change the long-term case for Bitcoin.

August Volatility, September’s Seasonal Struggles

If you had told someone a month ago that Bitcoin would hit new all-time highs and then, just days later, people would be calling for a bear market, they would have thought you were mad. But that is exactly how August played out.

Bitcoin climbed to a new peak, ending the month nearly 7% higher at one point. But things turned fast. As sentiment flipped, the month closed red, down just under 7% from its high. It was a sharp reversal that caught many off guard.

Now we head into September, a month that has rarely been kind to Bitcoin. Historically, it is the worst-performing month on average for the asset, with a typical loss of 5.58% and nine of the last fourteen Septembers closing in the red. The trend is clear, and it is not just limited to crypto. September also has a poor track record for equities. Since 1926, the S&P 500 has averaged a return of minus 0.8% in September, and four of the last five years have followed that same negative pattern.

The current structure does not look great for Bitcoin, with August seeing both momentum and short-term control swing back to the bears. Entering what is statistically the most bearish month of the year only adds to the uncertainty. That said, the picture is not all bad. As shown in the chart, Bitcoin is now approaching a strong zone of technical support between $104K and $107K, with a deeper support band below that in the $102K to $103K region. If price continues lower and September plays out as history suggests, these levels should provide meaningful demand and could very well mark a short-term bottom.
These zones also align with what we would expect if Bitcoin were to post a typical September pullback of around 5%, which suggests any downside from here could be limited. From a structural perspective, this makes the coming weeks critical. If the support holds, the stage would be set for a potential rebound in October, which has historically been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months.

Breakout targets remain intact, with the shallow $130K region still acting as the key upside magnet. A move of nearly 20% would be required to reach those levels, but a steady September would set the scene for a strong fourth quarter, continuing the pattern of bullish momentum through October and beyond.

Macro could be the deciding factor. All eyes are on the 17 September interest rate decision, where markets are currently pricing in an 85% chance of a 25 bps cut. Powell’s dovish tone in August already boosted risk sentiment, and if a cut is confirmed, it could be the catalyst Bitcoin needs. One more inflation print is due before the meeting, and that could either confirm expectations or throw more confusion into the mix. If the Fed surprises with a hold, risk assets could face another leg lower.

Geopolitics also remains a wildcard. The potential meeting between Trump, Zelenskyy and Putin, expected in early September, could influence markets significantly. A move towards resolution in the Ukraine conflict would likely be seen as a major positive for risk assets.

So while history may not be on Bitcoin’s side heading into September, macro and technical support both offer reasons for cautious optimism. Bitcoin is vulnerable in the short term, but structurally it remains in the range of strong demand. The path forward depends on whether buyers step in here or wait for further confirmation. Either way, what happens in September could shape the rest of the cycle.

In the News:

XRP Co-founder faces scrutiny for selling his tokens:

Controversy has been building around XRP co-founder Chris Larsen, as his wallet was recently linked to the sale or movement of 50 million XRP tokens, worth roughly $175 million around XRP's all-time high in July at $3.65. Around $140 million of that total ended up on exchanges, with the rest transferred to new wallets. The move has weighed heavily on XRP’s price action and added further pressure to an already bearish market backdrop. It has also reignited criticism around the project’s centralisation, with many investors frustrated by the perception that insiders are selling into retail demand. Any hopes of a bullish breakout have been temporarily halted.

Executive Order Opens Retirement Crypto Access in America:

In his push to position America as the global home of crypto, Trump signed another series of pro-crypto executive orders last month. The most impactful of these now allows Americans to purchase Bitcoin and other crypto assets within their 401(k) retirement plans, the US equivalent of Superannuation. This policy unlocks a major gateway, potentially giving over 90 million Americans direct exposure to the crypto market. It is a significant milestone for mainstream adoption and another tailwind for long-term demand.

Chainlink Partners with the US Department of Commerce:

Sticking with the broader theme of US-led crypto advancement, Chainlink has announced a partnership with the US Department of Commerce. The collaboration will bring key economic indicators, including real GDP and the PCE Price Index, on-chain to make the data immutable and publicly verifiable. This is a major step forward, not just for Chainlink but for the crypto space at large. By putting real-world economic data on the blockchain, the initiative signals growing institutional confidence in the technology and further legitimises the use case for decentralised data infrastructure beyond just Bitcoin.

Market Update:

Top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap
Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in August 2025:
    1. Bitcoin dropped 6.43% in August
    2. Ethereum gained 18.7%, continuing its strong run and setting a new all-time high
    3. Solana kept pace with ETH, finishing the month up 16.7%
    4. Chainlink led the majors, up 37.3% and climbing to the 13th largest crypto by market cap
    5. Total crypto market cap fell slightly by 0.56%

    Video of the month:

    Balaji Srinivasan: What Happens When Bitcoin Wins | Bitcoin Asia 2025

    Education: Is There a Problem with Bitcoin Treasury Companies?

    In the last cycle, we saw the collapse of hedge funds, trading firms and exchanges that were once considered too big to fail, until they were not. The unraveling of 3 Arrows Capital, Alameda Research and ultimately FTX dealt brutal blows to the market during the bear phase, sending Bitcoin and the broader crypto space even lower. A common thread ran through all of them: they were overleveraged and, in many cases, trading with borrowed or misused funds. As the bear market deepened and drawdowns accelerated, they fell like dominoes.

    This cycle, the spotlight has shifted. Some critics now argue that Bitcoin treasury companies, which are firms holding large amounts of Bitcoin on their balance sheets, could become the FTX or 3AC of this era. The concern is that they are similarly vulnerable to collapse and could amplify downside pressure on Bitcoin’s price during periods of stress.

    The Bitcoin treasury model has been led by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) CEO Michael Saylor. Under his leadership, the company has accumulated one of the largest corporate Bitcoin reserves by purchasing BTC directly and raising additional capital through convertible notes and equity offerings to buy more. In some cases, they have used debt financing, which increases the risk profile of the strategy. Other companies, such as Tesla and Block, have taken a different approach by using internal funds, but none have matched Strategy’s scale or aggressiveness. Recently, a handful of other Bitcoin-focused businesses have signalled similar intentions, taking inspiration from Saylor’s model.

    It is not just Bitcoin seeing this trend emerge. Companies are beginning to adopt a similar strategy with other digital assets, including Ethereum and Solana. BitMine is currently the largest Ethereum treasury company, while Upexi holds the largest corporate position in Solana. As more companies join the trend and a broader range of assets become part of corporate treasuries, the risks begin to increase. With fewer safeguards, less liquidity and greater volatility across altcoins, the danger and likelihood of forced liquidations, poor risk management and eventual collapse become much higher. This raises systemic concerns not just for Bitcoin, but for the wider crypto market if this trend continues to accelerate without proper controls.

    The core concern is leverage. Strategy has issued billions of dollars in debt to build its Bitcoin position. If a deep bear market drives prices sharply lower, the value of its holdings could fall to a point where the company struggles to service or refinance that debt. In a worst-case scenario, this could trigger forced Bitcoin sales, accelerating downside moves and shaking market confidence. While Strategy has already weathered one full bear cycle, the risk grows as the model is adopted by others. Critics warn it only takes one major failure to temporarily destabilise the market.

    That said, even if a Bitcoin treasury company collapses and is forced to liquidate, it is crucial to remember that this risk sits with the company, not with Bitcoin itself. The network and asset remain fundamentally unchanged. Prices could fall in the short term, but Bitcoin’s core qualities such as scarcity, decentralisation and security are not affected by the actions of any single firm.

    The analogy to the Global Financial Crisis is useful. In 2008, banks created risky debt instruments tied to mortgages. When the debt collapsed, markets crashed, but the houses themselves were still there. Similarly, if overleveraged crypto treasury companies fail, the Bitcoin, Ethereum or Solana they hold remains the same. The long-term value proposition does not disappear just because the wrong balance sheet strategy blew up.

    Whether these companies thrive or collapse, Bitcoin remains Bitcoin. And now, so does Ethereum, Solana and any other asset chosen as a corporate store of value. For long-term investors, the noise around strategy, leverage and risk exposure should not distract from the core fundamentals. Volatility is part of the market, but the technology and value behind these assets persist regardless of how any one company chooses to manage its books.
    Written by Alexandar Artis

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    No Advice Warning 

    The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
    Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
     

    Disclaimer 

    All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

    Copyright © 2022 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
    ]]>    Tue, 02 Sep 2025 17:12:17 +1000    <![CDATA[Welcome to Moon Season (We’re so back)  ]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/welcome-to-moon-season-we-re-so-backAfter all of the Fear, uncertainty and doubt since the beginning of the year, those who saw what we saw and took the necessary action to add to their ]]>
    After all of the Fear, uncertainty and doubt since the beginning of the year, those who saw what we saw and took the necessary action to add to their positions during such a prime market opportunity are being rewarded in spades as we speak! With full market-wide reversals back to the upside, we’re very glad to see that since the last article I wrote back at the beginning of April before the final sell-off and capitulation leg took place, we’ve not only hit our targeted support zones across BTC and other Major-alt coins, but we’re back on track regaining the previously lost local trend with extreme bullish momentum that is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. Ultimately, this means that the broader market crash in response to global narratives we saw is now nothing but a blip on the radar as we continue the Bullrun. Trend wasn’t lost across any of the major assets, even looking over at US Indices; the S&P500 (yes – we keep a very close eye on this too) didn’t lose major trend support and completed a fairly textbook retest correction which is now being followed by a continuation to the upside, likely to All Time High prices again with feverous momentum – another great sign that the bottom is in. Even the Fear and Greed Index is pushing 70+ again, now in “Greed” territory, compared to when sentiment was down in the slumps in “Extreme Fear” around 15 just a mere 6 weeks ago. Make no mistake, that’s just how quickly things change in this space. Let’s take a look at where we think things are going from here, so we stay ahead of the curve once again as we melt-up into the retail euphoria phase that is to come.

    Since our last article, we’ve seen the capitulation and market sell-off reaction that we predicted in response to Trump’s Tariffs. This has taken us to the zone of support which I outlined in the previous April article for a great deal of assets that we’ve been actively trading, the most notable one being Bitcoin of course. We got the final leg of the sell-off very quickly for BTC and for the broader market as a whole within days of publishing the article which gave the heads up to our clients that this was a high likelihood. As a result, it should’ve been no surprise too that we also landed into the strong support zone I outlined in that article, which consequently saw us bottom at precisely $74,434, of which we then started to move back up hard and fast with a “V-Shape” reversal pattern. 

    A clearer view of the chart can be found here:https://www.tradingview.com/x/EPRxOLse/

    Not only did we start heading back up hard and fast, which is to be expected after a large emotional sell-off, but we also with haste started breaking through multiple local weekly resistance levels in order to solidify the notion that the bottom is well and truly in. These levels are derived from the previous trend resistance and landed us both $86,084 and $96,262, both of which price is holding well above now at a whopping $102,000 again (That didn’t take long!) All that’s left now is for BTC to keep up the momentum and crack the previous $109,356 High that we set in December, so that we can carry on melting up as we enter the later stages of this Crypto Bullrun.

    With this being said, clearly Bitcoin has performed tremendously as the leading asset for the Crypto-space this cycle. Despite being in the later stages of the Bullrun, its strength this cycle cannot be underestimated; however, as we’ve detailed in previous articles, the dominance of Bitcoin has always reached a plateau each and every cycle where despite continuing to rise nominally in price, its strength relative to its altcoin counterparts starts to diminish as retail and now institutional investors will begin to hunt down those fundamentally sound and resilient projects that are somewhat undervalued in order to close out the maximum possible gains for their portfolios as prices start to get crazy from here.

    Looking at BTC’s Dominance chart once again, we can see the channel of resistance we outlined earlier in the year to clients still holds true as the index appears to be topping precisely where we anticipated, and it couldn’t come at a more opportune time.

    A clearer view of the chart can be found here:https://www.tradingview.com/x/BZ2q2inw/

    At the start of May, once the recovery in nominal prices across the board started to pick up speed, we consequently saw BTC’s Dominance top-out around 65% which was the top of our predicted resistance zone. Since then, we’ve started to pullback and given that major altcoins individually remain bullish from here, this correction in BTC’s Dominance is likely to continue; therefore, meaning that Altcoins are gaining quicker in gains relative to Bitcoin. Again, this doesn’t mean that Bitcoin is going down in nominal prices, rather that altcoins are going up quicker and faster in % gains relative to BTC’s continued upwards growth. I suspect BTC Dominance will likely continue to fall from here for the remainder of this Crypto Bull run cycle, at least until shortly after the major altcoins top-out in their respective nominal dollar prices; of which then when the bear market eventually starts to set in, BTC will renormalize and re-absorb the majority of Cryptocurrency liquidity once again despite being in a bear market, just as it’s done historically in previous cycles. Let’s take a look at two of the Major altcoins now that we’ve been keeping a close eye on which we believe are likely to perform well from here on out over the coming months.

    Ethereum took a beating with the rest of the market during the Trump Tariff scare which makes a lot of sense as FUD (Fear, Uncertainty & Doubt) doesn’t discriminate when it takes hold and isn’t rooted in much logical reasoning. As a result, we saw ETH lose its previous support and double-bottoming structure, falling into another major trend support level at $1554 where it has since held firmly. 

    A clearer view of the chart can be found here:https://www.tradingview.com/x/BiQ2pPUB/

    The good news is that despite what might appear as ugly price action at first, this has positioned ETH to be extremely undervalued whilst still retaining the #2 place in the Crypto pecking-order in terms of Market Cap this entire time. These types of “good deals” amongst major tokens are EXTREMELY rare and should not be ignored. This is why since the bottom has come in across the entire market, we’ve seen ETH not only reverse back up too, but we’ve seen it in fact outperform significantly compared to not only other major altcoins, but the entire market as a whole, pumping near a whopping 100% in just the last 5 weeks. This because “The harder they fall, the harder they pump” and the ETH/BTC chart echoes this sentiment as well, showing that it’s currently holding the long-term Macro Bottom from pre-covid, therefore meaning we likely will bottom out here again creating a very strong “Double-Bottom” support, further giving credence to the notion that ETH will continue to outperform BTC from here despite falling out of favor in the eyes of retail earlier this cycle. 

    A clearer view of the chart can be found here:https://www.tradingview.com/x/BWQmuWqW/

    The fundamental narrative that’s shifting for ETH now which is helping support this shift in Price Action is that the Pectra Upgrade has gone live; simply meaning that ETH is finally starting to correct its scalability issues that created high gas fees and network congestion which has been plaguing users of the network for a number of years.

    While it’s nice to see ETH finally catching a break, there’s another major Altcoin asset that had once previously fallen out of favor too, but this cycle has seen it truly come back with a vengeance, and we don’t have to look far down the market capitalization list to find it…
    XRP, the token of Ripple I remember wasn’t even on people’s radar last cycle due to the now determined unsubstantial lawsuit filed by the SEC and the delistings that followed the suit. Since then, Ripple have reclaimed their deserved place in the top 3 pecking order of assets (not including Tether), their token; XRP has truly held up well this cycle, undoing any of the previous cycles poor performance and is well poised to take advantage of this cycle’s continued growth. From a Price Action standpoint, XRP is holding up much better than ETH as it didn’t lose structural trend despite falling a sizeable 52% from peak to trough from when we were predicting an imminent market pullback in December of last year. 

    A clearer view of the chart can be found here:https://www.tradingview.com/x/1Umm4GiG/

    XRP held its uptrend on the weekly timeframe, unlike ETH; therefore, despite XRP falling to a low of $1.61 where we correctly targeted our support zone months prior, it shouldn’t prove too difficult to keep creeping up higher from here as there’s far less headwind in ways of resistance to stop continued price appreciation. Conversely, XRP has also been setting up two different yet very bullish patterns over the last few months, both a Bull flag and an Inverse Head and Shoulders. Similar to what we predicted BTC would do around $50K pre-US Elections, I wouldn’t be surprised to see XRP do something similar from here. Given its strong narrative and ETF-hype as a well-positioned American-based Cryptocurrency project with close ties to the Trump Administration, this one is looking finally ready for incoming All Time Highs for the first time since January of 2018.

    Finally, there’s a combination of Bullish narratives hitting the market all at once since the market’s price recovery; between the beginnings of a deal for the China & USA trade war negotiations, a potential ceasefire for the Ukraine and Russia war, US CPI Inflation data coming in lower than forecast once again last week and of course Trump’s 90 Day pause on Tariffs, there’s no wonder prices are reflecting the bullish sentiment that we’re going higher from here. Even the S&P500 has done a textbook V-shape reversal off its major support at 4825, now back at near 6000 again; a very similar recovery to how the index pumped coming out of the March 2020 covid crash. It’s clear that the market’s perception of all these cascading narratives has shifted radically from “It’s over” to “We’re so back.” All of this is great for Cryptocurrency, and with the first glimpses of a late-stage alt season truly beginning, make sure you’re ahead of the curve with us at Stormrake and ready to seize the opportunity like many of our clients did in the last 6 weeks – because believe it or not, you’re still early.

    Written by James Ryan

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    No Advice Warning 

    The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
    Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
     

    Disclaimer 

    All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

    Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
    ]]>    Tue, 20 May 2025 15:43:43 +1000    <![CDATA[Bitcoin Slides as Trump Talks Tough – All Eyes on the Fed]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/Bitcoin-Slides-as-Trump-Talks-Tough-–All-Eyes-on-the-Fed
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    The weekend delivered a slow bleed for Bitcoin, which retraced 3.4% from its $97.5K high posted early Saturday. Now trading at $94.5K and back within its established range, we’re heading into a week where volatility is expected to surge.

    JUST IN: Trump has declared he has no intention of speaking with President Xi about tariffs, accusing China of “ripping us off” and claiming that US and Chinese officials are “talking about different things.” As a result, Bitcoin dropped over 1.5% in the past two hours, while S&P500 futures also fell—reinforcing that markets remain highly reactive to Trump headlines.

    Macro Focus: FOMC & Tariff Tension

    The third interest rate decision of the year is on deck. Ahead of Trump’s second term, many expected May to mark the beginning of a rate-cutting cycle. However, the chaotic start to 2025 has put those expectations on pause.

    Tariff developments have created economic uncertainty and stoked inflation fears, pushing rate cut odds lower. Trump continues to demand lower rates, but Powell has stayed resolute—guided solely by economic data. Markets are now pricing a 96.8% probability of no cut this week. Attention shifts to mid-June (still skewed toward no cut), while July is currently seen as the first realistic window for easing.

    With that in mind, this week’s decision may already be priced in. What matters more will be Powell’s press conference. He will undoubtedly face questions on the tariff pause and its implications for inflation and policy. A dovish tone (hopeful/optimistic) could trigger a relief rally. Conversely, if Powell remains hawkish (cautious/bearish), risk assets are likely to continue lower.

    The presser could be the catalyst that breaks us out of the recent consolidation.

    Stormrake Spotlight: Bittensor (TAO) ($345)

    As requested, Bittensor takes the spotlight. TAO has surged over 100% from its lows in the past month, flipping long-term momentum back in favor of the bulls. Price has decisively broken previous highs and entered a new uptrend by forming a higher high.

    For structural confirmation, TAO needs to establish a higher low. This will be validated once it sets a low above the recent $222 mark. A pullback to form this higher low is expected and would be healthy. There are three key support levels to watch:

    • Level 1: 21EMA and CPR support
    • Level 2: 0.5 Fibonacci & 55EMA support
    • Level 3: 0.618 Fib & CPR confluence

    A bounce from any of these would confirm continuation of the bullish structure.

    BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

    Bitcoin has lost the key support zone and slipped below all major moving averages. Short-term momentum now favors the bears, though the broader structure still leans bullish—as long as $92.9K holds.

    A break below $92.9K would flip the structure and likely send BTC to retest $90K.

    BTC Total ETF Flows for 4 May: $ (data not available at the time of writing)

    (ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
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    *All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

    Written by Alexandar Artis

    Create a brokerage account today

    Get Started

    No Advice Warning 

    The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
    Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
     

    Disclaimer 

    All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

    Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
    ]]>    Mon, 05 May 2025 12:26:48 +1000    <![CDATA[Lummis Doubles Down: Bitcoin as America's Escape from Debt?]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/lummis-doubles-down-bitcoin-as-america-s-escape-from-debt
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    Cynthia Lummis is still fighting hard for Bitcoin. For those unfamiliar, Senator Lummis is the force behind the so-called “Lummis Bill,” more formally known as the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The original bill, introduced last July, proposed that the US government accumulate one million Bitcoin over five years.

    However, when President Trump signed the executive order in March to establish the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, there was no formal plan to actually buy those one million coins. That omission left many investors disappointed.

    But overnight, Senator Lummis reassured markets that Trump remains supportive of her original vision. She reaffirmed that the only viable solution to America’s $36 trillion debt burden is to pass the Bitcoin Act and begin systematic BTC accumulation. With Lummis continuing to push this agenda, it feels like a matter of when, not if, Trump greenlights the plan to start buying Bitcoin using government funds.

    If and when that announcement comes, expect buying pressure and FOMO unlike anything the market has ever seen. This isn’t the kind of move you want to chase. Get allocated now—before the herd comes running.

    Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.19)

    XRP slipped a marginal 0.11% yesterday, currently trading between the 21EMA and 55EMA. The market structure remains bullish, and momentum is gradually shifting toward bullish control. If XRP breaks above the 55EMA, the next upside target sits at $2.49. Immediate support lies at $2.12.

    BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

    Bitcoin just missed the $98K mark overnight, topping out at $97.9K. Since then, price action has pulled back toward the 55EMA. If that support fails, we’re watching $95.7K as the next key level. No alarm bells for bulls here—another higher high confirms the uptrend, and this retracement likely sets up a stronger higher low to further reinforce the bullish structure.

    BTC Total ETF Flows for 2 May: $ (data not available at the time of writing)

    (ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
    To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

    *All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

    Written by Alexandar Artis

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    No Advice Warning 

    The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
    Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
     

    Disclaimer 

    All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

    Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
    ]]>    Sat, 03 May 2025 15:36:09 +1000    <![CDATA[Bitcoin Breaks 8-Day Range, Edges Closer to $100K]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/Bitcoin-Breaks-8-Day-Range-Edges-Closer-to-100K
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    May has kicked off with strength, finally breaking out of the eight-day consolidation range. Bitcoin is up 2.5%, trading above $97K for the first time since late February, and now closing in on the key psychological level of $100K.

    There are plenty of investing adages, and one from traditional finance that often resurfaces in crypto is: “Sell in May and go away.” But does it really hold weight for Bitcoin?

    Since 2011, we’ve seen 14 Mays. Six were red; eight were green — that’s 57% of Mays closing positive. The average return? +20%. The median? +6.21%. However, three of the past four Mays have been negative, with an average return of –11.83%.

    Looking closer — when April is positive, May tends to follow. Only three Mays have been red following a green April since 2011, giving us a 79% probability of May being positive under those conditions.

    Not only did April close in the green, but it also flipped Bitcoin’s structure back to bullish. From January through March, the trend was bearish — marked by lower highs and lower lows. April briefly set a new lower low at $74.5K, but Bitcoin has since rallied to $97K, posting a higher high and establishing a clear higher low.

    With historical data and current structure aligned, May appears poised for further upside. The old adage “sell in May and go away” may not apply this time — perhaps it’s actually time to accumulate more Bitcoin and altcoins instead. Bitcoin is on the verge of reclaiming $100K, and once that level breaks, momentum could carry it much higher. Altcoins will likely follow. We’ve already seen some of our favourite names rally in recent weeks. This isn’t the time to be on the sidelines — it’s a time to consider further allocation and stay positioned for the move.

    Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.22)

    XRP bounced cleanly from the 21EMA, forming another higher low at $2.12. With Bitcoin showing strong momentum, XRP is likely to continue its move upward, targeting the green CPR level at $2.49 in the coming weeks. The structure remains bullish, and momentum is gradually swinging further in favour of the bulls.

    BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

    Bitcoin has broken above the top of its consolidation range at $95.7K. With the 21EMA and 55EMA providing strong support, that previous resistance now acts as support. Price action suggests a likely retest of the $100K mark over the next week or so.

    BTC Total ETF Flows for 1 May: $ +71.1 million

    (ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
    To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

    *All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

    Written by Alexandar Artis

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    No Advice Warning 

    The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
    Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
     

    Disclaimer 

    All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

    Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
    ]]>    Fri, 02 May 2025 12:33:04 +1000    <![CDATA[US GDP Shrinks in Q1: Recession Bets Rise]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/us-gdp-shrinks-in-q1-recession-bets-riseBitcoin Stuck in Range as GDP Miss Raises Recession Bets]]>
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    Bitcoin remains rangebound, despite pockets of overnight volatility, making it eight consecutive days trading within the same range.

    The first GDP reading under Trump’s second term was released overnight—and it wasn't pretty. The economy shrank by 0.3%, missing the forecasted 0.2% growth. This marks the first negative Q1 GDP print since 2022. As a result, recession odds on Polymarket have surged once again, now sitting at 63% for a recession this year. Just four months ago, expectations were for Q1 growth of over 3%—a stark contrast to the reality.

    Trump was quick to deflect blame, pointing the finger at the previous administration. He labelled it “Biden’s stock market,” claiming that his own tariffs had no role in the weak data and arguing they’ll take time to show results—adding that when they do, they’ll “boom.” Somewhat ironic, considering Trump previously called it the “Trump Stock Market” on January 29th when equities were making all-time highs.

    Markets reacted swiftly to the GDP release. Both Bitcoin and the S&P 500 dropped 2.2% on the announcement. However, the S&P managed to claw back gains throughout the trading session.

    All attention now shifts to Jerome Powell and next week’s interest rate decision. With a 94% probability of no rate cut, the press conference will be pivotal. Powell faces a no-win scenario: either tackle inflation or support employment. Holding rates risks further economic contraction and rising unemployment. On the other hand, cutting rates too soon could re-ignite inflationary pressures. His tone and guidance will be critical in signalling the Fed’s path forward.

    Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.20)

    XRP slipped another 2% yesterday, closing below the 55 EMA—a bearish signal for bulls. However, it did manage to hold above the 21 EMA, offering a glimmer of hope. Monthly CPR levels have now shifted with the start of May, and they've moved lower—indicating a broader downtrend. That said, what was previously immediate resistance has now flipped to support at $2.12. The new resistance sits at $2.50.

    BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

    Following the GDP miss, Bitcoin dipped to test the bottom of its range, bouncing neatly off CPR support at $92.8K. It reversed quickly, reclaiming all key moving averages and returning to the middle of the range. While we remain in a sideways structure, May’s CPR levels have risen—unlike XRP’s—suggesting that the broader trend for Bitcoin remains bullish.

    BTC Total ETF Flows for 30 April: $ -323.3 million

    (ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
    To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

    *All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

    Written by Alexandar Artis

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    No Advice Warning 

    The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
    Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
     

    Disclaimer 

    All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

    Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
    ]]>    Thu, 01 May 2025 12:08:34 +1000    <![CDATA[Bitcoin Eyes $100K Amid Tight Consolidation]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/Bitcoin-Eyes-100K-Amid-Tight-Consolidation
    To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/
    The data released overnight had little effect on markets. Bitcoin remains range-bound, gold ticked up just 0.05%, and the S&P 500 posted a modest 0.58% gain. Both key data prints came in below expectations.

    JOLTS job openings were forecast at 7.49 million but came in lower at 7.19 million—reinforcing the trend of softening labour demand. Lower-than-expected numbers are generally positive for risk-on assets and negative for the USD, as they hint at a more dovish Fed. But the broader lack of momentum across markets has kept price action subdued.

    US consumer confidence also declined for the sixth straight month, reflecting rising caution among households amid sticky inflation and policy uncertainty. While this was largely expected, it adds to the broader theme of hesitancy. Political noise—like Trump and the White House flip-flopping on tariffs—only deepened market indecision throughout April.

    Despite the noise, Bitcoin is set to close April nearly 15% higher—a sharp turnaround from just weeks ago when it dipped under $75K, losing 15% in four days post-Liberation Day. Since then, BTC has rallied over 26%, and is once again knocking on the door of $100K.

    This consolidation period will break—it’s not a matter of if, but when. Bitcoin’s structure and the expanding M2 money supply point to upside, likely sooner rather than later. Allocating during times of consolidation is often when the best moves are made—don’t sleep on it.

    Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.24)

    XRP posted a mild 2.49% pullback yesterday, retesting the 55 EMA but closing above it—a strong technical signal. The $2.33 CPR level remains key resistance. For XRP to extend its bullish structure, it must clear that while holding above the 55 EMA. A drop below the 55—or even the 21 EMA—could flip the structure bearish.

    BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

    Another 24 hours of sideways action. BTC continues to range between $95.7K and $92.5K. A break above the range likely sets up a $100K retest, while a downside break could push BTC back below $90K.

    BTC Total ETF Flows for 29 April: $ -43.9 million

    (ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
    To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

    *All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

    Written by Alexandar Artis

    Create a brokerage account today

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    No Advice Warning 

    The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
    Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
     

    Disclaimer 

    All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

    Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
    ]]>    Wed, 30 Apr 2025 11:31:41 +1000    <![CDATA[Bitcoin Trapped Between Key Levels — Breakout Imminent?]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/Bitcoin-Trapped-Between-Key-Levels-Breakout-ImminentBitcoin remains locked between $92.5K and $96K as consolidation drags on, with markets awaiting tonight’s key data for the next move.]]>
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    Bitcoin has finally broken its streak of sub-1% days, currently up 1.3% on the day — though nothing particularly impressive. Consolidation remains the theme, with BTC stuck between $92.5K and $96K. Since last Tuesday’s 7% breakout, price action has been locked in this range — a week-long standstill so far.

    Elsewhere, Temu has joined the trade war, introducing import charges of up to 150% to counter US tariffs. Meanwhile, Mastercard has added stablecoin settlement support for merchants, further bridging crypto adoption into traditional finance.

    Finally, the PELOSI Act has been reintroduced. The bill seeks to ban members of Congress from trading stocks — a highly controversial topic given how often lawmakers seem to buy or sell just ahead of major deals or announcements. Quite the stunning coincidence…

    At midnight, we’ll receive the first major data of the week: JOLTS job openings and US consumer confidence figures. Both are expected to soften from previous readings and will heavily influence Powell and the Fed’s upcoming decisions on interest rates.

    Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.29)

    Ripple continues to show encouraging strength, rising nearly 2% over the last 24 hours — slightly outperforming Bitcoin and continuing its minor breakout. A particularly bullish sign is XRP’s ability to stay above all major moving averages after clearing the 55EMA two days ago.

    The next key confirmation will be the 21EMA crossing the 55EMA — a technical trigger that would signal the momentum has truly swung back to the bulls.

    BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

    Bitcoin remains trapped between two critical levels: $92.5K and $95.7K. Bulls and bears are fiercely defending their ground, and a break of either side will likely set the next major move.

    A bullish breakout could propel BTC towards $100K, while a failure at support risks a slide back under $90K. These levels are crucial battlegrounds as the next phase unfolds.

    BTC Total ETF Flows for 28 April: $ -292.8 million

    (ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
    To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

    *All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

    Written by Alexandar Artis

    Create a brokerage account today

    Get Started

    No Advice Warning 

    The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
    Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
     

    Disclaimer 

    All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

    Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
    ]]>    Tue, 29 Apr 2025 15:17:33 +1000    <![CDATA[Bitcoin Marks Fifth Day of Sub-1% Moves]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/bitcoin-marks-fifth-day-of-sub-1-moves
    To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/
    A slow weekend of consolidation across Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Saturday closed just 0.1% lower, and Sunday is set to close red for the second day running—down 0.66%. That marks five straight days of sub-1% moves following last week’s breakout candle.

    We saw a similar stretch mid-April, when Bitcoin consolidated for nine days after rebounding from the $74K low. Could this be déjà vu? A quiet spell before the next leg higher—to $100K?

    No major headlines over the weekend, but the week ahead brings key events for traditional markets. We’ll get US consumer confidence data—expected to dip further—along with critical job figures, a metric Powell heavily weighs when guiding rate decisions. Meanwhile, around 25% of S&P 500 companies are due to report earnings.

    While crypto might shrug most of this off, traditional assets like the S&P 500 and gold are likely to react. This week could reveal whether Bitcoin continues behaving like a risk-on asset, mirroring equities, or pivots to act more like gold. April has seen it do a bit of both.

    Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.24)

    Despite Bitcoin’s pause, XRP is showing signs of strength—currently up 2.65%. It’s finally broken through the 55EMA and the first CPR resistance, levels that had capped it since Tuesday.

    This kind of resilience during a BTC pullback is a positive sign. The structure remains bullish, and momentum is beginning to tilt in the bulls’ favour. The next hurdles lie at $2.33 and $2.45—key CPR levels to watch.

    BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

    After failing to push through the critical $95.7K resistance on Friday, BTC has printed a series of lower highs, threatening the bullish structure. Price has slipped below both the 21 and 55EMAs, with a potential bearish cross looming.

    That said, the bullish bias holds as long as we don’t break below $91.6K. There’s immediate support in the $92.5K–$92.8K zone, which could offer a bounce if tested.

    BTC Total ETF Flows for 27 April: (data not available at the time of writing)

    (ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
    To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

    *All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

    Written by Alexandar Artis

    Create a brokerage account today

    Get Started

    No Advice Warning 

    The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
    Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
     

    Disclaimer 

    All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

    Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
    ]]>    Mon, 28 Apr 2025 12:57:21 +1000    <![CDATA[The Slow Crawl to $100K]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/the-slow-crawl-to-100kBitcoin’s slow climb toward $100K continues amid tariff-driven consolidation—Sui up 71% since Monday.]]>
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    Bitcoin has now marked its third consecutive day of positive candles, each moving less than 1% from its open. Since the 7% rally earlier this week, Bitcoin has only moved a combined 1.28% over the last three sessions — a sharp contrast and a clear sign of consolidation. As we noted yesterday, this kind of sideways action following a strong upward move is far more constructive than a pullback. We're seeing Bitcoin consolidate while gradually climbing, a bullish sign in itself.

    Markets overall mirrored this subdued tone. Both Gold and the S&P 500 also moved less than 1% from their opens. No major headlines broke, though there were notable developments in the ongoing tariff saga. Trump remains firm on China, maintaining that no concessions will be made unless China acts first. Reports suggest China may exempt certain US imports from the sweeping 125% tariffs. Still, Trump reiterated that another tariff pause is unlikely and claimed it would be a “win” if the US were imposing 50% tariffs a year from now.

    This leaves markets in a state of uncertainty — but this is where Bitcoin thrives. Whether in response to bullish “risk-on” pauses or bearish “risk-off” tariff headlines, Bitcoin has continued to perform. Uncertainty, as it stands, remains an ideal time to accumulate Bitcoin and select high-conviction altcoins.

    Sui continues its impressive run, climbing another 5% yesterday, taking its return since Monday to a staggering 71%. These are the kinds of opportunities that reward early positioning in strong projects during quieter market periods.

    Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.18)

    XRP saw a modest 1.1% pullback and has slipped back below the 55EMA. The ongoing battle with this moving average continues, with neither bulls nor bears able to claim dominance. This range-bound action is forming a clear consolidation structure — one to watch closely.

    BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

    Bitcoin has reclaimed $95K and is now inching towards the key $100K level. Before it can get there, however, it needs to break through the critical resistance at $95.7K — a level it tested and rejected yesterday. Price bounced off the 21EMA, suggesting another attempt may be imminent. Should BTC clear this hurdle, the path to $100K opens up.

    BTC Total ETF Flows for 25 April: $ + 139.9 million

    (ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
    To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

    *All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

    Written by Alexandar Artis

    Create a brokerage account today

    Get Started

    No Advice Warning 

    The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
    Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
     

    Disclaimer 

    All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

    Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
    ]]>    Sat, 26 Apr 2025 12:27:29 +1000