The Rake Review: January

January Sets the Stage for a Bullish 2025

An event-packed January comes to an end, and Bitcoin is set to close positive once more, up 11%. This month saw Bitcoin trade back under $90K for the first time since mid-November, new all-time highs, and price catalyst events that seemed to emerge every few days. From bearish events such as the US DOJ's clearance to sell seized assets, the lack of any mention of crypto in Trump’s inauguration speech, and DeepSeek AI posing a threat to US AI stocks, to bullish catalysts like a dovish tone from Powell and a pro-crypto executive order, the market experienced a constant push and pull.

From Doubt to Dominance

In the early days of Bitcoin, many traditional financial leaders and government officials viewed it with scepticism and even hostility. For instance, in 2019, former President Donald Trump stated, "I am not a fan of Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies, which are not money, and whose value is highly volatile and based on thin air." Meanwhile, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink had once dismissed Bitcoin as an "index of money laundering." The mainstream narrative painted Bitcoin as a tool for criminals, a speculative bubble, or, at best, a niche asset for tech enthusiasts.

Yet, Bitcoin persisted. During 80% drawdowns, it faced relentless criticism: media headlines called it a scam, governments threatened regulation, and financial institutions openly mocked its supporters. Over the last five years, Bitcoin experienced immense volatility—falling below $4,000 in 2020, then $10,000, $20,000, $30,000, and $40,000, eventually creating new highs. Each price collapse was met with critics celebrating Bitcoin's 'downfall', yet every drawdown offered a historic opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin.

The individuals who bought during these crashes—who held extreme conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term vision—understood that mainstream adoption was inevitable. They weren’t swayed by FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt); instead, they recognised Bitcoin’s value proposition and its potential to be integrated into the global financial system.

Fast forward to January 2024, and the landscape had dramatically shifted. Bitcoin was trading around $40,000, and the launch of the first Bitcoin ETFs marked a historic moment where traditional finance finally embraced digital assets. BlackRock, once sceptical, now led the charge with its Bitcoin ETF, alongside other Wall Street giants.

By January 2025, Bitcoin’s ascent continued, surpassing $100,000 and proving that those who bet against it had once again been wrong. This time, the adoption wave wasn’t limited to asset managers—the U.S. government itself had stepped in. In a groundbreaking move, President Trump signed an executive order supporting Bitcoin and pro-crypto policies, marking the first official embrace of Bitcoin at the highest level of government. The man who once dismissed Bitcoin as "thin air" was now positioning himself as "The Crypto President." Over the past year, he has repeatedly praised Bitcoin and crypto, emphasising the importance of "financial freedom" and a "pro-Bitcoin stance" for America's economic future.

This transformation—from rejection to adoption—has solidified Bitcoin's role as a legitimate global asset. The past two Januaries have validated everything Bitcoin believers had envisioned: first, institutional adoption through ETFs, and now, the governmental embrace of Bitcoin as an economic force. Those who doubted Bitcoin during the bear markets, waiting for it to "go to zero," have been proven wrong time and time again.

As we stand in January 2025, Bitcoin’s journey is far from over. If history has taught us anything, it’s that Bitcoin doesn’t just survive—it thrives. And those who understand its long-term trajectory will continue to benefit from the opportunities it presents.

A Busy Yet Consolidative January

January 2025 seemed relatively slow in terms of price action, with Bitcoin hovering around $100,000 despite its intra-month highs and lows. However, this apparent calm belied a storm of events shaping the crypto market.

From Bitcoin’s 16th birthday to U.S. government drama, inflation data, and Chinese AI developments, the month was anything but quiet. Bitcoin started January strong, with seven consecutive days of bullish price action before bearish news hit the markets.

Just over a week before President Trump’s inauguration, the U.S. Department of Justice announced plans to sell 69,000 Bitcoin it had seized. This move shocked many, particularly as Trump had previously vowed not to sell seized Bitcoin during his presidency. The timing, just days before his inauguration, felt deliberate.

This bearish revelation, combined with disappointing employment data, pushed Bitcoin lower. However, the release of bullish CPI data for risk-on assets saw Bitcoin rally back above $100,000. Days before Trump’s inauguration, Bitcoin remained steady, but the inauguration speech itself brought the anticipated volatility. After dropping briefly below $100,000 due to no mention of Bitcoin in the speech, it quickly rallied to new all-time highs near $110,000.

The post-inauguration week was packed with crypto-related government developments, including:

The resignation of Gary Gensler.
The creation of a Crypto Task Force within the SEC.
A pro-crypto executive order to establish a national digital asset stockpile.

Bitcoin consolidated between $100,000 and $109,900 until another significant event disrupted the markets: the launch of DeepSeek AI, a Chinese-developed open-source AI protocol seen as a competitor to ChatGPT. The announcement sent ripples through global markets, especially tech-heavy sectors. The NASDAQ opened 1.2% lower due to the dominance of AI-related stocks, with NVIDIA recording a $600 billion single-day market cap wipeout—the largest in history.

Crypto wasn’t immune to this shock, with Bitcoin briefly falling 5% to dip below $100,000. However, Bitcoin and altcoins rebounded strongly. Bitcoin reclaimed $104,000, while projects like Sui, Ripple, and Ondo recovered their losses and rallied to new highs.

The final event of the month was the heavily anticipated FOMC interest rate decision. Although a rate cut was deemed highly unlikely, the market still reacted negatively to the announcement of no cut. However, a dovish tone from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell provided relief, sending Bitcoin from $101,000 to $105,000.

Looking ahead, February has historically been one of Bitcoin’s most bullish months, with an average return of 16.6%. If this trend continues, Bitcoin could end February at approximately $122,500. Of course, past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stormrake Client Portal:

We are thrilled to announce the Stormrake Client Portal. Here’s what’s waiting for you:

A secure, intuitive way to view your crypto assets.
Real-time insights into your portfolio.
A foundation for even greater features coming soon.

In the coming days, Stormrake clients will receive an email inviting them to the new Stormrake Client Portal.

Czech Republic BTC Accumulation:

Czech National Bank Governor Aleš Michl has proposed allocating 5% of the 140 million euros within the central bank’s reserves to Bitcoin, which could make the CNB the first Western central bank to officially buy and hold Bitcoin.

Ross Ulbricht Pardoned:

During his campaign, President Trump pledged to pardon Silk Road creator Ross Ulbricht, a move widely supported by the crypto community. On his first day in office, he delivered on that promise, securing Ulbricht’s release.

Top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in January 2025:

Bitcoin ends January up 11%.
XRP becomes the third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap.
Solana drops to 5th place.
DOGE flips USDC to take 7th place.
TRUMP token storms into the top 35 within 48 hours of launch.

Video of the month

The Pro-Crypto Executive Order Explained

Education: Bitcoin’s Rising Dominance: The Great Coin Dilution Effect

Over the past few years, the cryptocurrency market has witnessed an explosion of new tokens. Thousands of projects launch daily, and millions of new coins enter circulation. Despite this relentless expansion, Bitcoin’s price has not only increased but dominance has strengthened.

The Numbers Tell the Story

Bitcoin dominance (BTC’s share of the total crypto market value) has risen from 40% to 59% in three years.
Ethereum (ETH), once holding 18% of total market capitalisation, has slipped to 10%.
All other coins combined have fallen from 42% to 30%.

The Rise of Disposable Coins

98% of memecoins fail to survive longer than three months.
10,417 tokens are launched daily, yet 9,912 become defunct.
The average lifespan of a memecoin is just 12 days.
15% of memecoins die within one day of launch.

This rapid churn dilutes the altcoin market, siphons investor capital into speculative plays, and undermines long-term confidence in the sector.

Altcoin Dilution: The Flood vs. the Foundation

While Bitcoin operates on a strict fixed supply of 21 million, the altcoin market is inundated with tokens, many of which are inflationary or poorly structured. This has two major effects:

Capital Dilution – With every new token, available liquidity fragments further, reducing the ability of altcoins to sustain long-term value.
Market Confidence Erosion – As most altcoins fail, capital rotates into Bitcoin, reinforcing its position as a safe haven.

Decoupling of Bitcoin and Altcoin Market Caps

Historically, Bitcoin and the broader altcoin market have moved in tandem. During bull markets, altcoins often outperformed Bitcoin, acting as leverage on BTC’s price action. Conversely, during bear markets, altcoins experienced sharper declines, with their lack of liquidity amplifying losses

Source: River Financial

However, the chart above points to a clear decoupling trend.

Bitcoin is increasingly diverging from the broader crypto market. Historically, speculative "alt seasons" drove temporary outperformance by altcoins, but this dynamic appears to be fading. As the latest market trends indicate, Bitcoin is beginning to leave the rest of the crypto market behind.

Key Observations:

Bitcoin’s Rising Market Cap

Since 2022, Bitcoin’s market cap has consistently trended upwards, reflecting growing demand from institutional investors, sovereign wealth funds, and individuals seeking a secure, scarce digital asset.
Altcoin Market Cap Stagnation
In contrast, altcoins have struggled with choppy price action, as continuous dilution from speculative token launches undermines growth and fragments liquidity.
The End of "Alt Seasons"
The previous trend of altcoins outperforming Bitcoin during speculative phases is fading, reinforcing Bitcoin’s dominance and decoupling from the broader market.

What This Means

This decoupling reflects a broader shift in investor sentiment. Bitcoin’s scarcity, unrivalled security, and growing institutional adoption make it increasingly differentiated. Meanwhile, the altcoin market struggles with rampant speculation, daily dilution, and high failure rates.

The Takeaway: Buy and Hold Bitcoin

Despite millions of new tokens flooding the market, Bitcoin’s dominance is rising—a testament to its resilience and appeal. In a world awash with disposable tokens, Bitcoin’s stability and scarcity make it the clear standout

Written by Alexandar Artis

Memes of the month

ECB Chair Lagarde continues to reject the idea of a Bitcoin reserve whilst other European central banks are exploring the idea of it.

Start Your Brokerage Account

If you enjoyed this Rake Review, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

Disclaimer

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.