The Rake Review: November 2025

New fundamental drivers that were not present in previous cycles have changed the structure entirely. Relentless buying from newly launched spot crypto ETFs, the emergence of Bitcoin treasury strategies from corporates, and most importantly sovereign accumulation of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset have all supported the bullish phase of this cycle. These factors are the reason many are starting to question whether the four year cycle is still relevant.

However, those who focus on historical signals still have reason to believe the cycle remains intact.

We are now exactly 36 months from Bitcoin's last cycle bottom, which lines up with previous timeframes. Bitcoin has retraced over 30% from its all time high, ETF inflows have slowed, and MicroStrategy has ended its six week Bitcoin buying streak.

The big question now being asked across the market is simple, how low can Bitcoin go?

Classic bear market signals have reappeared. Historically these have marked the beginning of prolonged drawdowns and crypto winters. Bitcoin's near 30% retrace from its October high has triggered a collapse in sentiment. Retail investors have begun panic selling at a loss after buying earlier in the year.

The Fear & Greed Index has remained in extreme fear territory for almost the entire month, with only a couple of short lived breaks above it. This level of sustained pessimism has only been seen a few times before, mid 2022 after Luna collapsed, mid 2021 during a 50% retrace from all time highs, and the March 2020 Covid crash when Bitcoin was at $3K.

While fear dominates the market, this is often where the greatest opportunities lie. For those who understand the fundamentals and look past short term price movements, the current environment looks less like the middle of a bear cycle and more like a major setup for the next move higher. Structural forces are now more relevant than cycle theory alone.

Bitcoin is an asset that thrives on liquidity. It performs best when money is flowing into the economy and people are spending. That happens when interest rates are low or when monetary stimulus returns. So far this year the US has only delivered one rate cut, fewer than most had anticipated. Markets are now pricing in a second cut in December which would bring the 2025 total to two.

Looking ahead to 2026, current probabilities give a 65% chance of at least three cuts next year. Lower borrowing costs would bring more liquidity to the system, which is supportive for Bitcoin.