The Rake Review: October 2024

October Did Not Disappoint

October lived up to its ‘Uptober’ reputation, with Bitcoin making gains and setting the stage for potential new highs.

Another successful 'Uptober'

After some early doubt and fear, October has officially been another successful month for BTC and continues to live up to its name of ‘Uptober’. In previous Octobers, Bitcoin saw an average return of 23%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is up +14.6% since October 1 and is looking to continue higher in November.

October has been a rollercoaster to say the least, with the month opening at $63,400 before spending the first week or two struggling to make any progress to the upside and even falling below $60k briefly. Whilst things were looking bearish for the short term, our long term faith was not wavered as the long term structure we identified had remained in play. Will Uptober be the month to send Bitcoin to new all time highs or be the ignitor for November to be the month we see a new all time high.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis:

Bitcoin vs USD

In last month's Rake Review, we discussed Bitcoin’s bull flag formation, a bullish pattern that has now broken to the upside, showing promising momentum. After testing the top of the channel, Bitcoin has continued higher, reinforcing our target of $88k. The strong structure of higher highs and higher lows keeps this target within reach.

Bitcoin currently faces resistance at its previous all-time high from March. This level might prompt a pullback, but as long as BTC remains above its recent higher low at $65,250, the bullish trend persists. Minor pullbacks on shorter timeframes may offer good entry points to further allocate toward your Bitcoin positions.

Bitcoin Dominance

The chart above compares Bitcoin dominance (yellow line), Bitcoin price (purple line), and Total 2 (the total crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin - cyan line). Bitcoin dominance represents the percentage of the overall cryptocurrency market cap made up by Bitcoin, highlighting its relative strength and influence in the market.

The chart above shows Bitcoin dominance (yellow line), Bitcoin price (purple line), and Total2 (the entire crypto market cap excluding BTC - cyan line). Currently, Bitcoin dominance is at levels not seen since April 2021 and is likely to continue rising. When dominance increases, more capital flows into BTC, leading to price appreciation. Now at 60%, Bitcoin dominance has historically reached around 67.39% in previous bull runs. Typically, dominance peaks within 12 months of BTC’s cycle high, marking the blow-off phase where both Bitcoin and altcoins rally to new all-time highs. Indications suggest that late 2025 could be the peak of the bull run.

While a drop in BTC dominance doesn’t mean a price decline, it does indicate that capital flows out of other coins while new funds enter the crypto space, lifting both BTC and altcoins. We expect Bitcoin dominance to rally to around 67% over the coming months before it peaks. When this peak occurs, the entire crypto market could reach even higher levels in 2025. In bear markets, both prices and dominance decline as capital exits the crypto space or moves into stablecoins like USDT or USDC. Prepare for the bull run by continuing to accumulate Bitcoin—contact your personal Stormrake Broker to seize this golden opportunity.

What’s Next for Bitcoin in November?

If you thought October was volatile, brace yourself for November. Bitcoin is testing its previous all-time high, with the US election just days away. Regardless of the election outcome, Bitcoin’s long-term position remains strong. Expect significant volatility in the first couple of weeks (similar to October) before Bitcoin regains stability and likely continues its climb toward our bull flag target of $88k.

Top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in October 2024:

Bitcoin ends October up 14% after recovering from an initial 7% dip.
TON fell out of the top 10, replaced by TRON.
Solana outperformed Ethereum with a 15% gain compared to Ethereum’s 2.4% rise.
SPX6900 entered the top 100, soaring 432% this month.
Memecoins were the hottest category, with some gaining over 50%, 100%, and even 200%.

Video of the month

How the US election may affect Bitcoin?

In the news

United States Presidential Election:

With the US election less than a week away, it’s shaping up to be one of the most pivotal in recent memory. Since Harris replaced Biden, the race has tightened, with betting odds currently leaning in Trump’s favour. Polymarket gives Trump a 66% chance of victory, while Sportsbet offers odds of $1.55. Despite these odds, polling suggests the race is still close, and many consider it a virtual toss-up.

For the crypto sector, a Trump victory is seen as favourable, with Trump proposing a US Bitcoin Strategic Reserve and even incorporating Elon Musk into his campaign—a strong crypto advocate. Harris, on the other hand, has made minimal statements about cryptocurrency, and Democrats have historically been more critical of digital assets. The prospect of a Trump win has already fueled Bitcoin’s rally as investors potentially price in his victory. If Harris wins, a market dip might follow, creating a “buy the dip” opportunity for Bitcoin before the bull run continues. Regardless of the election’s outcome, market sentiment points to a bullish trend into 2025, as fundamental support for crypto remains strong.

BRICS Members Begin Bitcoin Mining

At a recent BRICS meeting, new members UAE, Argentina, and Ethiopia revealed they have begun government-backed Bitcoin mining operations. This shift reflects BRICS countries' growing interest in digital assets to bolster economic resilience and potentially move away from Western financial systems. As the coalition grows in economic power, Bitcoin may emerge as a preferred currency for these nations, prompting further global interest in adopting Bitcoin.

Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF Performance:

October was a record month for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, with the Spot Bitcoin ETF seeing $870 million in net inflows on October 29 alone—the third highest day since inception. U.S. ETFs now hold almost 1 million Bitcoin, just behind Satoshi Nakamoto's holdings. If this trend continues, ETFs could become the largest Bitcoin holders by November. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have had nearly continuous inflows since October 14, totaling $4.5 billion, while the Spot Ethereum ETF saw net inflows of $65.1 million in the same period.

Education

Stormrake's Morning Note:

For those who want to stay engaged with the crypto market, Stormrake has relaunched the Morning Note, a daily 3-4 minute read covering the previous day's trading, key events, and upcoming highlights. It also includes the “Stormrake Spotlight” to feature coins we believe have strong performance potential.

In recent spotlights, coins like Sui (35% gain), Solana (30%), Goat (80%), and Fantom (55%) have achieved significant gains. These aren’t just short-term plays; we have long-term conviction in these picks. Stay ahead by subscribing and let us handle the research, so you’re prepared for the bull run.

Stormrake is heading to the Australian Crypto Convention

We’re thrilled to be sponsoring the Australian Crypto Convention in Sydney on November 23-24! As a sponsor, we’ll have a dedicated booth at the event, and we invite you all to come by, meet our team, and enjoy exclusive perks. Our directors and key members from both the trading and brokerage desks will be there, ready to connect and discuss the latest in crypto.

Our booth will feature a popcorn machine for a quick snack, and potentially a Stormrake DJ booth and an exclusive party for our clients. We’re offering discounted tickets—contact your Stormrake Broker for details or follow the link below to secure yours. We look forward to seeing you there!

Written by Alexandar Artis

Memes of the month

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