A Familiar Pattern Emerging

This feels like déjà vu. We have almost mirrored Wednesday night’s rally. Bitcoin dipped below $100K yesterday, but this morning we are retesting $104K. As expected, the bulls held $100K, preventing the bears from making any sustained move lower. The range is well defined. Bulls are defending $100K like the bull run depends on it, while bears are using momentum to keep price capped just below $104K.

Altcoins have followed a similar pattern, with many posting over 10% gains and trading higher than they were a few days ago. That may be a sign that risk appetite is returning to the market.

In the broader market, we saw a strong risk-on bounce. The S&P 500 looked set for another 1% pullback, but an intraday reversal off the 55 EMA saw it close green. Gold finally pushed back above $4,000 but remains in a consolidation phase for now.

Bitcoin Consolidation Range: $100K to $104K

The $100K level has strong technical support. Zooming out, we are now testing the weekly 55 EMA, which has historically been a key trend-defining level for Bitcoin.

You may have seen this chart across socials. This is the Bitcoin weekly chart, where the green line represents the 55 exponential moving average. When price trades above this level, and the 21 EMA sits above the 55 EMA, we are typically in a bull market. When we see sustained closes below the 55 EMA and the moving averages flip, that has marked the start of previous bear markets.

We are now nearly three years from Bitcoin’s last cycle low. That is a long stretch for a bull run. The current correction is retesting the 55 EMA, which has already provided two strong bounces over the past 16 months. If this level breaks on a sustained close, it could signal deeper downside. If it holds, there is a strong chance we see renewed strength and a move to fresh all-time highs before the year ends. We will be tracking this chart weekly to keep you updated.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hyperliquid (HYPE) ($42.36)

A strong 10% day for HYPE, fully engulfing the previous bearish candle and now retesting the moving averages. This area may act as resistance short term, but a clean break above would likely signal a return to bullish momentum and open up further upside.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

We are seeing a familiar pattern. A few weeks ago we flagged a double bottom or W pattern on HYPE that played out and sent it from $36 to $50. That same pattern is now forming on Bitcoin. The base is locked in at $100K, and the neckline is at $104K. A confirmed break above that level could trigger a bullish breakout and give the bulls short term control.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 7 Oct: $ - 15.4 million

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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