No Drain This Time? The Anthropic IPO and Bitcoin

Earlier this year we saw the largest IPO in history. SpaceX listed on the Nasdaq on 12 June, raising $75 billion at a valuation of roughly $1.75 trillion. It had everyone’s eyeballs on it, and more importantly, their portfolios. Investors sold other assets to free up cash for an allocation, and Bitcoin was one of the casualties.

Now the next mega IPO has arrived. Anthropic, the AI lab behind Claude, filed its public prospectus on Monday and plans to list on the Nasdaq under the ticker “ANT”. Reports suggest it could raise around $100 billion at a valuation of up to $2 trillion, with trading as soon as mid-November.

So far, we are not seeing the same drain on Bitcoin. Here is why, and what could still change that.

The SpaceX Playbook

The SpaceX listing was a liquidity event for the whole market. In the 23 days between SpaceX’s registration statement and its debut, Bitcoin fell from around $77,000 to $63,000, a drop of roughly 18%. US spot Bitcoin ETFs bled around $2.4 billion in May and a further $4.5 billion in June.

The pattern was simple. Retail traders sold what they held to build a war chest for the IPO. Bitcoin, already under pressure, was an easy source of cash.

This Time Looks Different

Two days after Anthropic’s filing, Bitcoin is holding around $80,000. ETF flows have been choppy but net positive. Spot Bitcoin ETFs took in about $301 million for the week ending 23 October, then another $110 million on Monday, the same day the prospectus dropped. Not explosive. But not a drain either.

We see three reasons for the difference.

1. A Different Market

SpaceX arrived in the middle of a bear market. There was little demand for Bitcoin and selling pressure was dominant. The IPO simply gave holders another reason to sell an asset that was already falling.

Today the backdrop has changed. Bitcoin has broken out of its bear market, bulls are back in control and institutional demand has returned. Last week is a good example. When Bitcoin pulled back towards $80,000, BlackRock’s IBIT kept buying. Dips are being absorbed rather than chased lower.

That said, the bid is not broad yet. October ETF flows are still slightly negative month to date, and Monday’s inflow came entirely from a single fund. The demand is real, but it is concentrated.

2. A Different Barrier to Entry

SpaceX made it unusually easy for everyday investors to take part. It reserved up to 30% of the offering for retail, against a typical 5% to 10%. Fidelity cut its IPO account minimum from $500,000 to just $2,000, while Robinhood, SoFi and E*Trade required no minimum at all.

That opened the door to the investors most prone to chasing a narrative. Many sold other assets to get in, and Bitcoin felt it.

Anthropic has not announced any retail allocation. Without one, most everyday investors can only buy once shares hit the open market. There is no need to raise cash ahead of time, so there is no pre-IPO rotation out of other assets. If that holds, it goes a long way to explaining why Bitcoin has not been drained this time.

3. The Risk Has Shifted

The bigger risk for Bitcoin may not be rotation at all. It may be the AI trade itself. Research firm K33 has noted that Bitcoin is increasingly tied to technology stocks through household wealth, leverage and institutional flows.

Anthropic’s prospectus shows extraordinary growth, with $16.3 billion in revenue in the first half of 2026, up from around $1.1 billion a year earlier. It also shows an $80.7 billion loss over the same period. If the listing is priced too richly and disappoints, a sell-off in AI names could spill into crypto. A strong debut, on the other hand, would signal healthy risk appetite.

Not Out of the Woods

It is early. We are two days into Anthropic’s filing. The SpaceX drain played out over more than three weeks. K33 has already flagged the SpaceX precedent as a risk for Bitcoin.

The key moment is the roadshow, which could begin as soon as the week of 9 November. If Anthropic announces a large retail tranche with low account minimums, the dynamic could shift quickly. Add this week’s Fed decision to the mix, and the next few weeks carry more event risk than the calm price action suggests.

What This Means for Bitcoin

The SpaceX episode showed that a mega IPO can pull liquidity out of Bitcoin when demand is weak and access is easy. Neither condition looks as strong today. Institutional buyers are stepping in on dips, and the retail floodgates have not been opened.

The signals that matter from here are clear. Does Anthropic open the doors to retail? Do ETF flows hold up into the listing? And does the AI trade stay healthy once ANT starts trading?

Short-term flows will come and go. The bigger question is whether demand for Bitcoin can stand on its own while the market’s biggest story plays out elsewhere. So far, it is passing that test.

Overnight, the Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4.00% in a 10-2 vote, with two members pushing for another hike. Chair Warsh offered no forward guidance, leaving a December hike on the table, but Bitcoin took the decision in its stride and is holding above $81,000.

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Stormrake Spotlight: Zcash (ZEC) ($1,304)

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/jfNwXyHs/

ZEC has taken a breather after rallying 6% the previous day, with yesterday a flat session. The bulls remain in control and are favoured to push towards the upper target at $1,385, which would go a long way to confirming the trend reversal.

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BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/EKAxtUEb/

Bitcoin saw some volatility heading into the FOMC decision, printing five consecutive red candles. Once the Fed held, BTC reversed the move and matched it to the upside within a few hours. Bitcoin now consolidates above all the moving averages, trading around $81,500.

With the FOMC decision behind us, one potential bearish catalyst is off the table. Attention now turns to tomorrow night’s monthly options expiry, with roughly $12.2 billion in Bitcoin options set to expire on Deribit at 7pm AEDT. Max pain sits around $79,000, just below the current price, so a dip into settlement cannot be ruled out. Holding above the moving averages through the expiry would keep the bulls firmly in control.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

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Written by Alexandar Artis