As Expected: 25bps Cut Sets the Stage

The highly anticipated interest rate decision has arrived and the result came as expected: a 25 basis point cut. This is a very positive sign for risk on assets, though the impact has not been felt overnight. Markets had priced in the cut well in advance, which explains the lack of immediate movement across risk assets.

Bitcoin failed to sustain a breakout yesterday, seeing some volatility around the time of the announcement but still trading just above $116K. Despite the pullback, BTC remains in the bulls' control. Traditional risk on markets also experienced some volatility, but ultimately closed flat. The S&P 500 lost just 0.10%, and the Nasdaq finished marginally lower, down 0.21% on the session.

Gold and silver both pulled back over the past day, though both remain in strong uptrends. Gold is still hovering around its all time highs, while silver sits just below its highest level in 14 years. These are healthy corrections from strength, not signs of weakness. Interestingly, the DXY (US dollar index) looks set to close green on the day despite the rate cut. It has caught a slight bid but still remains in a broader breakdown, now sitting at its lowest levels since February 2022.

So while the cut was fully priced in and did not move markets overnight, this is the first step towards what could become a more prolonged and powerful bull run. Liquidity is starting to return and that is a bullish macro tailwind. Markets are still pricing in another 50 basis points in cuts by year end. The question is whether that comes as one 50 basis point move or two 25 basis point cuts. Either way, the catalyst is now in place. Historically, Q4 is a strong period for risk assets and with rate cuts finally underway, that seasonal trend could be amplified.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hedera (HBAR) ($0.243)

A green day for HBAR despite Bitcoin closing red. The 2% move confirms the higher low and strengthens the bullish structure. The next step is for bulls to reclaim a higher high by breaking above the recent peak at $0.2548. If that level is taken, full control shifts back to the bulls.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

BTC failed to break through $117K yesterday and dipped below $115K on volatility during the interest rate decision. Buyers quickly stepped in at the 200 day moving averages, preventing further downside. BTC is now climbing back towards key resistance at $116.9K, with bulls in control and a retest likely soon.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 18 Sep: $ - 40.1 million

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

Disclaimer

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.