Bitcoin Finds Support at $92.5k Amid Bearish Pressure

We’ve seen further bearish price action across the crypto market overnight, with Bitcoin leading the decline and dragging the majority of altcoins down with it. Bitcoin hit a low of $92.5k—a key support level that has held firm over the past month. It has since bounced 2.75%, now trading at $95k. Despite the clear break in bullish structure, the $92.5k level remains crucial. If this support holds, we could see Bitcoin make another attempt at $100k. However, if another leg down breaches this level, Bitcoin could drop below $90k for the first time since 18 November.

The anticipated FOMC minutes, released this morning, align closely with market dynamics observed yesterday after stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data. November's JOLTS report showed job openings rising to 8.1 million, underscoring a resilient labour market, while the ISM Services Index climbed to 54.1, signalling robust economic growth. This reinforced the narrative of a stronger-than-expected U.S. economy, driving risk-off sentiment and speculation about a slower pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025.

Yesterday’s data set the stage for today’s FOMC minutes, which confirm the Fed’s cautious stance. Participants emphasised the importance of balancing inflation risks against economic momentum. A resilient labour market, low unemployment at 4.2%, and inflation at 2.8% support the case for gradual policy easing, while maintaining flexibility. This backdrop has bolstered U.S. bonds, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.69%, and strengthened the U.S. dollar to a six-month high, creating additional pressure on risk assets like equities and Bitcoin.

The FOMC minutes’ acknowledgment of persistent inflation and the need for vigilance mirrors Jerome Powell’s hawkish tone at the last press conference. Markets hoping for rapid monetary easing may need to adjust expectations, though any signals of dovish flexibility in future meetings could provide relief for risk assets later this year, particularly if inflation moderates or labour market conditions soften.

Looking ahead, we are just 11 days away from Donald Trump taking the oath as the 47th President of the United States. This event is widely anticipated to bring bullish momentum to crypto, and we could see positive price action in the run-up. If Bitcoin holds the key $92.5k support level, a potential “Trump rally” could push prices back above $100k, possibly retesting all-time highs.

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