Can April Reverse Bitcoin’s Worst Q1 in Years?

March left investors underwhelmed, with Bitcoin closing the month down 2.23%—despite one of the biggest milestones in its short history: becoming a strategic reserve asset for the US government. We saw BTC reach as high as $95K before dropping sharply to $77K, carving out a near 20% range from peak to trough. Not only did March end in the red, but it also marked Bitcoin’s second-worst Q1 since 2016, down 11.70%. Ethereum fared even worse, falling 45% and nearly matching its worst-ever Q1 performance. Here’s hoping April offers a rebound…

Historically, April has been kind to Bitcoin. Nine of the last fourteen Aprils have delivered positive returns, with an average monthly gain of 34.7%. Statistically, that favours another green April—especially with March still holding the higher timeframe bullish structure and keeping the broader uptrend intact. But this time, macro risk is the wildcard.

As I’ve reiterated time and time again, the reciprocal tariffs go live in a few days. It may sound repetitive, but these tariffs have been the dominant driver of price action over the past two months—and more often than not, they’ve been bearish. If the trend continues and additional tariff announcements are viewed negatively by the market, April could bring more downside. However, if these measures are perceived as less damaging than feared, we may see a relief rally and renewed strength in risk-on assets.

The current level of uncertainty is being felt across all markets—not only through price action in risk-on assets, but in hard data. The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index has now reached an all-time high—surpassing even the pandemic peak and nearly doubling the levels recorded during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.

As March winds down, Bitcoin is once again retesting $80K, a stark reversal from its highs above $95K earlier this month. It’s a clear reaction to the rising geopolitical tensions and a reminder that Bitcoin is still widely perceived as a risk-on asset. Meanwhile, gold continues its bullish march higher, trading just shy of $3,100 per ounce as capital rotates into traditional safe havens.

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