CPI Falls Below Expectations – Is Inflation Dropping?

Last night, we saw the monthly CPI data release, with Core CPI MoM forecasted at 0.3%, headline CPI MoM at 0.3%, and YoY at 2.9%. All were expected to decline from February’s readings—and decline they did, even further than anticipated. Core CPI MoM came in at 0.2%, headline CPI MoM at 0.2%, and YoY at 2.8%, all below expectations, signalling that inflation has cooled over the past month.

Will this trend continue, or will anticipated tariffs drive inflation back up?

Implications for Rate Cuts

What does this mean for potential rate cuts? With the upcoming FOMC meeting just a week away, the probability of no change was already at 97% before last night’s data. Now, it's up to 99%, with markets still anticipating the first rate cut in June.

Bitcoin’s Reaction to CPI Data

Bitcoin’s immediate reaction to the data was extremely volatile, spiking to $84.5K within the first hour of the release. However, as the market digested the figures, BTC retraced back to around $83K—where it had been trading for most of the previous day.

This event wasn’t inherently bullish or bearish for Bitcoin, but as expected, it brought volatility. BTC remains in a consolidation range between $81K and $85K, and a sustained break in either direction will dictate the trend.

This Trump-driven volatility isn’t going anywhere, and sharp corrections should be expected throughout the year. As I’ve said countless times, these dips are golden buying opportunities. Time and time again, I’ve been proven right—and those who have done so have reaped massive gains.

Stormrake Spotlight: Sonic (S) ($0.43)

Despite a negative-looking chart, there are some positive signs for Sonic (S). The token is finding bids at the bullish order block, having fallen into it over the past three days but closing above it each time—a promising sign for what is a must-hold level.

If Bitcoin reclaims $85K, bidding S at these levels could be a golden opportunity—especially if the market turns bullish and S re-emerges as a leading project.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

On the hourly chart, Bitcoin is starting to show more signs of life, with a bullish cross of the 21EMA and 55EMA, as well as a higher high following last night’s CPI-driven volatility. A clear range has been established between the key support of $81.6K and key resistance of $85.2K.

Both levels are critical for bulls and bears—whichever side breaks first will determine the higher timeframe trend.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 12 Mar: $ (data not available at the time of writing)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Ethereum remains stuck in its range between $1,797 and $2,019, with bears still in control. The 55EMA has been a persistent challenge, rejecting ETH for the third time in two days. Structure and momentum remain on the bearish side for now.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 12 Mar: $ (data not available at the time of writing)

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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