It's Just a Pullback...

Just 24 hours after printing a new all-time high at $126K, Bitcoin has seen its first meaningful pullback since the rally began at $109K. It dropped nearly 5% from the high, but has since bounced and is now trading around $122K. BTC is down 2% on the day, recovering from a low of $120.5K. So, is the pullback done?

This is the pullback we have been expecting and what Bitcoin needed. The run from $109K to $126K came with virtually no correction, and this pause acts as a healthy reset for the market. Over $500 million in leveraged positions have been wiped out, clearing excess risk before it builds into something more dangerous. The fact it is happening now, rather than later in a more extended move, reduces the risk of a sharper correction down the line.

While there is a chance the pullback continues, there is a strong argument that the low is in. Bulls may now look to regain control and make another attempt at the highs. That said, a dip to $118K would still sit comfortably within the bullish structure we highlighted earlier this week.

This was not just a crypto-specific move either. The S&P 500 snapped its seven-day winning streak, Nasdaq closed lower, and even Silver pulled back, which was surprising given Gold pushed higher in a clear risk-off move. Markets are starting to price in growing uncertainty surrounding the US government shutdown and broader macro concerns. While the shutdown itself did not move markets when it occurred, investors are increasingly unsure about the potential fallout and what lies ahead in terms of policy and economic data.

We now enter the macro-heavy part of the week. Jerome Powell is set to speak tomorrow night and we will finish the week with two sets of unemployment data. Volatility may continue, but for now this is still just a pullback.

Stormrake Spotlight: Aster (ASTER) ($2.07)

ASTER was one of the few coins to remain green over the last 24 hours, largely thanks to strength in BNB which is up nearly 7%. ASTER continues to challenge the key resistance zone of the horizontal box, but has failed to sustain a breakout above it for the third time.

Momentum still leans towards the bulls, with moving averages approaching the resistance zone. A decision is likely in the next day or two, and only one side will win.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin has pulled back from its all-time high and short-term momentum has flipped to the bears. As mentioned above, this is a healthy move. BTC has found support at the 200 moving averages, which are historically strong levels and I expect them to hold. If they fail, the next key support sits at $118K which still keeps us within a bullish structure. Once this reset plays out, the October target remains $131K.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 7 Oct: $ - 28.6 million

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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