The Battle for Control of 2025

2025 has been a year of ups and downs but with 11 months in the book, price action remains largely flat. $93.5K is the decisive level that will determine whether this year ends green or not. Bitcoin continues its bullish recovery, up nearly 2.5% in the last 24 hours and now more than 10% higher from the recent higher low set three days ago.

The macro spotlight remains on Japan. Thirty-year bond yields continue to climb and the likelihood of a rate hike remains high, just days after the government announced a $135 billion stimulus package. A rate hike is contractionary, aimed at reducing liquidity, while stimulus is expansionary, injecting fresh cash into the system. Japan is effectively pushing the accelerator while slamming the brakes. It is a clear signal that something may be broken.

Japan is in a tough position and how the Bank of Japan handles it will carry consequences for global markets. Investors will be watching closely.

In the US, the Treasury has just completed the largest buyback of its own debt in history, totalling $12.5 billion. While primarily a cash-management move due to excess reserves, it acts as a liquidity injection into the system. Financial conditions remain supportive and this is helping to fuel risk-on sentiment. Bitcoin’s ongoing recovery is benefitting from this backdrop.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,220)

A flat day for PAXG as it continues to consolidate after making a higher high. This setup should still be considered bullish as it builds energy for the next leg higher.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin has reached the key level of the yearly open at $93.5K. As expected, bears are defending the level but bulls are making a second attempt to break through. Momentum and structure remain in the bulls’ favour. If they succeed, a push toward $100K before year end is on the table.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 3 Dec: $ - 57.1 million

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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