The ETF Tap Turns Back On

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Bitcoin is back above $63K this morning, and money is finally flowing back into the ETFs after weeks of heavy selling.

What happened.

June was the worst month on record for US Bitcoin ETFs. Investors pulled around $4.5 billion out, most of it from BlackRock’s fund (IBIT), the biggest player in the space. The selling ran into July too, with more than a week of straight outflows. That’s the pressure that dragged Bitcoin down to a 21-month low near $57K.

Then it flipped. Weak US jobs numbers raised hopes the Fed will cut interest rates, and money started flowing back into the ETFs, including IBIT, over the following days. Bitcoin has climbed from $57K to $63-64K alongside that shift.

Why it matters.

ETF flows are one of the best real-time signals we have for whether big institutional money is buying or selling Bitcoin. When flows turn positive at the same time price is recovering, it’s a sign the rally has real demand behind it, not just short-term speculation.

The catch.

A few days of inflows doesn’t undo weeks of outflows, and some analysts think part of the recent selling was down to technical trading mechanics rather than a genuine loss of confidence in Bitcoin. The same could be true of this week’s buying. We want to see this trend hold for longer before reading too much into it.

What’s next.

Two dates to watch: US inflation data on 14 July, and the Fed’s next meeting on 28-29 July. A softer inflation print would support more rate cut bets and likely keep the buying going. A hotter number could reverse the mood quickly, just as we saw happen in reverse over the past month.

The bigger picture.

This doesn’t change our core view. We still see this as a bounce within a broader bear market, with $83K remaining the level that would need to break for that picture to change. ETF flows are a useful gauge of sentiment, but they follow price as much as they lead it. Good context, not a signal on its own.

For those not familiar with why $83K is the invalidation level for the bear market, we encourage you to read our newly released Q3 Outlook 2026: The Final Washout.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,098)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/rKVfTSpq/

PAXG has fallen by 1.40% as the 21 exponential moving average is proving to be a challenge once more for the bulls. If this is yet another rejection then we can expect another retest of $4,000.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/LmGyMFYw/

Bitcoin continues to battle at the key level at $63.8K. The bears are attempting to stop any move higher, whilst the bulls are using the support of the moving average to stop any bearish move back down. We are at a decision point now, with the moving averages sitting right at the key resistance level. One will have to give soon.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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