US GDP Shrinks in Q1: Recession Bets Rise

Bitcoin remains rangebound, despite pockets of overnight volatility, making it eight consecutive days trading within the same range.

The first GDP reading under Trump’s second term was released overnight—and it wasn't pretty. The economy shrank by 0.3%, missing the forecasted 0.2% growth. This marks the first negative Q1 GDP print since 2022. As a result, recession odds on Polymarket have surged once again, now sitting at 63% for a recession this year. Just four months ago, expectations were for Q1 growth of over 3%—a stark contrast to the reality.

Trump was quick to deflect blame, pointing the finger at the previous administration. He labelled it “Biden’s stock market,” claiming that his own tariffs had no role in the weak data and arguing they’ll take time to show results—adding that when they do, they’ll “boom.” Somewhat ironic, considering Trump previously called it the “Trump Stock Market” on January 29th when equities were making all-time highs.

Markets reacted swiftly to the GDP release. Both Bitcoin and the S&P 500 dropped 2.2% on the announcement. However, the S&P managed to claw back gains throughout the trading session.

All attention now shifts to Jerome Powell and next week’s interest rate decision. With a 94% probability of no rate cut, the press conference will be pivotal. Powell faces a no-win scenario: either tackle inflation or support employment. Holding rates risks further economic contraction and rising unemployment. On the other hand, cutting rates too soon could re-ignite inflationary pressures. His tone and guidance will be critical in signalling the Fed’s path forward.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.20)

XRP slipped another 2% yesterday, closing below the 55 EMA—a bearish signal for bulls. However, it did manage to hold above the 21 EMA, offering a glimmer of hope. Monthly CPR levels have now shifted with the start of May, and they've moved lower—indicating a broader downtrend. That said, what was previously immediate resistance has now flipped to support at $2.12. The new resistance sits at $2.50.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Following the GDP miss, Bitcoin dipped to test the bottom of its range, bouncing neatly off CPR support at $92.8K. It reversed quickly, reclaiming all key moving averages and returning to the middle of the range. While we remain in a sideways structure, May’s CPR levels have risen—unlike XRP’s—suggesting that the broader trend for Bitcoin remains bullish.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 30 April: $ -323.3 million

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

Disclaimer

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.