US Session Didn’t Bring the Risk Flows Bitcoin Needed

Crypto markets will have to wait a bit longer for risk-on flows as traditional indices show no signs of slowing down. We said the US session would confirm whether risk appetite had truly returned to crypto, and the session has made it clear: patience is still required. The S&P 500 pushed above 6,200 for the first time in its history after climbing another 0.52% overnight. The Nasdaq mirrored this strength, adding 0.64% and pushing further into price discovery. Even gold caught a bid, up 0.88%, while the DXY, the USD index measured against a basket of major currencies, continued its slide to multi-year lows, now sitting at its lowest level since February 2022.

Despite all this, Bitcoin closed red on the day, along with most altcoins. Bitcoin slipped 1.5% from yesterday’s high just shy of $109k. Interestingly, the altcoin market cap only fell by 0.3% even though most altcoins dropped more than 3%. The standouts were mainly within the top 10: Ethereum dipped just 0.4% while Solana, Ripple and BNB all closed green. Hyperliquid also outperformed Bitcoin and much of the altcoin space. Solana led the market following news that the first Solana Staking ETF in the US will begin trading this week.

Jerome Powell is set to speak tonight and we should expect more of the same: wait and see, with no rush to make policy moves. The White House confirmed that Trump directly called Powell, pressuring him to lower rates as he continues to push for 1% interest rates. Powell has not been fazed by Trump’s demands or rhetoric this year and is unlikely to shift now, with two rate cuts still expected for the second half of the year. If Powell surprises with a dovish tone (bullish) or a hawkish tilt (bearish), markets could react sharply. For example, if he signals more than the expected two cuts, risk-on markets should rally, but if he suggests just one cut, they could pull back.

Looking ahead to Trump’s ‘liberation day’ tariffs deadline on 9 July, Trump commented, “I don’t think I need to extend it, but could.” We have already seen a confirmed deal with China, a potential agreement with India, negotiations with Canada have been terminated, and the EU is ready to discuss terms. ECB President Lagarde will also speak tonight which should add clarity around Europe’s stance. It is shaping up to be more of a macro-heavy session but there is potential for spillover into crypto, although Powell’s recent speeches have been neutral enough to dampen immediate impact.

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