We’ve Seen This Before… But This Time Is Different

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A Bitcoin all time high in Q4, followed by a major geopolitical escalation in February that impacts both Bitcoin and Oil, is not new. We have seen this exact structure before.

In fact, the current environment is tracking closely with the 2022 Russia-Ukraine cycle.

Back then, Bitcoin topped in November 2021 before the conflict began in late February. Price was already in a significant drawdown, sentiment was weak, and oil quickly became the dominant macro driver. The result was a continuation lower, with Bitcoin eventually putting in a -58% drawdown within 90 days of the breakout.

Today, the setup is almost identical on the surface. Bitcoin topped in October 2025, entered a deep drawdown, and then saw a major geopolitical escalation at the end of February 2026. Oil has once again surged, but this time the reaction from Bitcoin is notably different.

Post-Conflict Price Behaviour

Day 0:
2022: Oil ~$92 | BTC ~$38.3K | Drawdown from ATH -44.5%
2026: Oil ~$73 | BTC ~$60.2K | Drawdown from ATH -52%

30 Days
2022: Oil ~$114 | BTC ~$44K | Drawdown from ATH -36%
2026: Oil ~$109 | BTC ~$66.7K | Drawdown from ATH -47%

~40 Days
2022: Oil ~$101.9 | BTC ~$45.5K | Drawdown from ATH -34%
2026: Oil ~$115.2 | BTC ~$71.3K | Drawdown from ATH -43%

60 Days
2022: Oil ~$102 | BTC ~$39.5K | Drawdown from ATH -42%
2026: Not yet reached

90 Days
2022: Oil ~$110 | BTC ~$29K | Drawdown from ATH -58%
2026: Not yet reached

*current as of today

The key divergence sits in both oil dynamics and Bitcoin’s response.

At the same point in the cycle, the contrast is clear.

In 2022, Bitcoin was trading near local highs with sentiment already in greed, despite macro conditions deteriorating. That strength was short-lived and ultimately rolled over into further downside.

In 2026, the opposite is happening. Oil has moved more aggressively, Bitcoin remains in a deeper drawdown, and sentiment is at extreme fear, yet price is recovering.

Despite worse sentiment and a more severe energy shock, Bitcoin is not breaking down.

Instead, it is holding structure and beginning to move higher, suggesting that supply is being absorbed rather than forced out. The Fear & Greed Index remaining near historic lows while price rises only reinforces that dynamic.

This creates a clear contrast.

In 2022, fear and relief cycles led to distribution and eventual breakdown.
In 2026, fear is being absorbed while price stabilises and trends higher.

That shift suggests accumulation rather than capitulation.

The takeaway is not that history will repeat exactly, but that the structure around opportunity looks very familiar.

If you were accumulating during 2022, particularly as the conflict escalated and sentiment deteriorated, you were positioning into one of the most asymmetric periods in the cycle. The following year rewarded that heavily.

The same conditions are beginning to form again.

Periods of deep drawdown, extreme fear, and macro uncertainty have consistently been where the strongest long term positions are built. They are uncomfortable, sentiment is weak, and conviction is tested, but that is exactly where the opportunity tends to sit.

This time, there is an added signal. Bitcoin is not just cheap relative to its highs, it is showing resilience during one of the most stressed macro environments in recent years.

It is not waiting for conditions to improve. It is starting to move despite them.

Yes, it may be Wednesday in Melbourne, but it is still Tuesday in Washington, where once again the US President has driven volatility through late-night social media posts.

Markets were sent into uncertainty after renewed threats targeting Iran, with timelines around potential strikes narrowing and participants counting down to a 10am local deadline. However, in typical fashion, a last-minute reversal has seen Trump announce a two-week delay on any military action, contingent on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has accepted the 2-week ceasefire proposal.

Markets have reacted accordingly. Risk assets have pushed higher on the de-escalation narrative, while oil has seen a sharp unwind, dropping over 17% in a matter of hours as immediate supply fears ease.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,701)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/PaPmyx1h/

PAXG has pulled back over 2% after failing to break above the 55 exponential moving average yesterday. This rejection signals continued bearish momentum, with sellers still maintaining control.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/5OAx9ip7/

Bitcoin is red over the last 24 hours, down just over 1%, after once again failing to hold a move above the key resistance at $71.7K. Bullish momentum was building, but is now beginning to fade, and risks being invalidated if price continues to reject from this level.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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