BTC The Calm Before the Storm!

In the last month since our February analysis, Bitcoin’s Price Action has been choppy to say the least. Whilst we’ve watched Bitcoin technically make a new All-Time-High in $USD, we’ve also been subject to much needed consolidation during this time period after reaching a temporary peak of $73,794, which landed us and sustained price well above $100,000 now in AUD for a single Bitcoin.

What was once such a distant hope for many back when I started trading cryptocurrency back in 2017 has since become a reality, etching out a remarkable feat in Bitcoin’s history. While it might be fitting to celebrate, we also need to be prudent in watching how this consolidation pattern we’re currently in plays out. Whilst we’re currently sitting nicely above the April and November 2021 highs, we’re also losing momentum from the monstrous rally we’ve been a part of since the start of 2023 which can be seen across all timeframes now. If for some reason we were to break down out of this current chop and solidify it as Distribution, we would likely see a sharp retracement below the previous cycles high’s, in-turn looking for the nearest support on the current move we’ve made over the last year. On the higher time-frames such as the Weekly and Monthly (usually best used for larger macro moves) we would see that sitting right where we reversed trend at $45,620 where we defied the previous cycles immensely strong resistance and slammed through with sheer tenacity, leading us to where we are now in price.

This level is of key importance as it remains untested, meaning that there will be significant buying liquidity from the Bears waiting for a retracement now as it’s the next key support underneath where we are now on higher time frames, assuming we lose momentum here and look below the 2021 High’s over the coming months.

On the other hand, assuming the US FED keep seeding the narrative of a “Soft-landing” when it comes to Inflation and we don’t see any unforeseen macro-economic shifts in sentiment pertaining to the notion of a recovery coming out of the Inflation crisis in the eyes of the masses, it’s not unfathomable to consider whilst subject to continued Bitcoin ETF bidding reaching new high’s in terms of Volume that we could see us continuing to hold the previous cycles highs as support for a while longer before making the next leg up. In this scenario, we would need to instead of using Fibonacci as a retracement tool (as discussed in last month’s analysis) we would be using Fibonacci’s extensions to inversely predict the upside potential. In such a scenario, we could see us soaring to the next psychological level above; The first Fib extension at the 1.618 level, with a whopping $102,072 price to go along with it.

Seeing as this would land us in uncharted territory, free of price resistance shackles, it would be a very enthusiastic run above as commemorating the true beginnings of the new cycles as we have seen when previous cycles before having rallied with immense fever out of their All-Time Highs and into the clear skies above. See below for the Previous Cycles;

While you can see the earlier cycles slammed through the first Fibonacci extension with ease, with subsequent Bitcoin expansions it has met resistance shortly thereafter due to mathematical laws that as it grows in Market cap exponentially from the millions, into billions, into trillions it will become increasingly more difficult for it to grow at the same rate, due to the immense amount of capital needed to sustain that very same rate of increase becoming increasingly more difficult. In turn, this is why each new Bull market nets a lower and lower rate of return compared to the previous cycles that have come before. Charting these cycles logarithmically in contrast with each other is also something we will look at here at Stormrake in further Analyses as this Bull Market progresses.

With a bright future ahead, use this moment of respite in the market to reach out to us here at Stormrake and take advantage of our Special Halving Offer in which we have a whopping 50% Off on all BTC Orders between now and when the halving is due to take place in approximately a week’s time.

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