From Global War Tensions to Green in just 12 Days

What a wild couple of months we’ve had since our last article. There’s been no shortage of excitement in the market – to say the least! We’ve witnessed Bitcoin not only just break All Time High’s once again since the retail panic of April (well done Tarriff scalpers!) but we’ve now just speedrun a potentially devastating and prolonged conflict in the Middle-east. From Israel’s initial attack into Iranian territory, all coming to a conclusive yet miraculous ceasefire in a mere 12 days, now being coined the “12-Day-War” by the White House. Trump truly has quickly become one of the most influential and strongly mandated POTUS’ of our time. Not only is he leading America’s economic boom as we’re seeing asset prices resurge back to All Time High’s across the board despite some initial policy trepidation surrounding trade policy, but now we’ve got Donald “Daddy” Trump actually making serious inroads for the ever elusive notion for peace in the Middle-east, even if it comes at the price of “Kinetic Diplomacy” in the form of highly sophisticated Bunker Buster missiles and advanced stealth bomber capability on a strategically planned Sunday evening at midnight. Since then, we’ve seen nothing but green on the charts for Risk-on assets, signaling that despite the macro-uncertainty of the first half of 2025, we’re good to move forward now and finish off H2 with conviction and strength. Let’s take a look at how Bitcoin has not only survived but thrived throughout the last few months.

Bitcoin has kept maintaining momentum to the upside for the most part over the last few weeks since bouncing off our predicted major support zone around the mid-$70K range. Actually, as mentioned earlier, we saw Bitcoin briefly push to new All Time High’s once again for a few days, reaching a peak of exactly $112K before coming into the current sideways price action we’re currently in. Another stark reminder that it wasn’t even a month prior to the new highs that people were panicked about Trump’s Tarriff policies and many retail traders were in a perplexed state of “deep fear” as seen on the Fear & Greed Index. Not us however; we remained steadfast in our long positions and doubled down on telling our clients how this was a prime-time for loading up the truck and adding to position sizes. Those that took action have done exceptionally well in a short amount of time, as we knew back then that those exceptional market opportunities come seldom and remain few and far between. So why the sideways price action for the last two months then since the huge rally in May? To that, all I have to say is one word you’ve heard me repeat time and time again this cycle; Accumulation. This is nothing to fear, rather – again providing excellent opportunity for market participants to add to their positions, especially those that missed out on when we called bottoms back in April. Looking at the Price Action on the charts, we can in fact see we’re currently in the midst of another Bull Flag pattern and have been since late-May when we pushed the $112K high.

A clearer view of the chart can be found here: https://www.tradingview.com/x/CGhOb49p/

Not only is this a Bull Flag, but keen eyes and avid readers of my previous articles will notice a similar pattern of price progression; that being the ever-subtle yet exciting Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. Two of these bullish patterns together provides excellent confluence and further signals the notion that the market lows are well and truly in, now with much more upside to come sooner rather than later. To further solidify the Inverse Head and Shoulders, we can see that it’s following a textbook “smaller right-shoulder” and has held steadfast when testing the strong support found at $98K.

A clearer view of the chart can be found here:https://www.tradingview.com/x/FRC6U6UI/

The strong bounce off this level happened exactly in the midst of Operation Hammer and the near-immediate ceasefire that followed shortly after. Just like I’ve outlined many times before, don’t follow the news narratives, rather look at the charts – they’ll tell you all you need to know. As a result we’ve seen a nice modest gain since then across risk-on markets, although we’re still within the broader accumulation range, therefore the opportunity for those still on the sidelines currently waiting to allocate further capital is still clear and present, however I doubt it will remain this lucrative for much longer now as the cascade of bullish price action and strong fundamentals narratives are ramping up to create the beginnings of a euphoric cacophony. Whilst Bitcoin remains on its historic tear despite all the macro headwinds, let’s take a look over and see how the altcoin market is doing.

The rest of the crypto market remains undervalued for the most part, yet all the top 10 majors appear to be in their own versions of an accumulation structure. Ultimately, market lows seem to be in across the board since the Trump Tarriff dip which was absolutely necessary and needs to be the case for the stronger Alt-assets to remain bullish for the remainder of the cycle, although we haven’t seen them break out of their aforementioned accumulation zones either quite yet. This means even for the major alts, the opportunity to buy low before moving higher also remains clear and present just like Bitcoin. Ethereum as the number #2 asset is still undervalued, yet holding its accumulation zone of support that we’ve outlined in previous articles. This is slowly but surely stacking the odds in its favor that there’s a lot more upside than downside risk from here on out. Holders almost always have their patience rewarded for holding in periods of “boring” accumulation periods such as this - just remember it’s not about timeframes; it’s about levels and trend. Trend is holding for ETH, so being bearish on it here in nominal terms is a massive counter-trade and usually these kinds of market participants that spread fear and “pile-on” an underperforming asset right at its market lows. Just like the Fear and Greed Index that we outlined in previous articles, if you counter-trade the sentiment of the masses, the odds are already in your favor. ETH/BTC is still above our projected must hold level, likely to keep increasing in the coming months. I believe this will align with when Bitcoin surges past the $112K high with momentous rise and slingshots to the next $150K target.

A clearer view of the chart can be found here:https://www.tradingview.com/x/cXFjh6Ni/

Historically, these big moves later in the cycle become the perfect catalyst for retail trades who missed the earlier cycle gains in Bitcoin, who’re looking for the “next-best-thing”, and just has its done the previous two cycles, I believe ETH will still retain the #2 podium place for a while longer and will fit that criteria as a moderately safe play for many newer investors looking for an excellent deal. In contrast, let’s take a look and see how XRP is performing relative to its counterparts as despite the macro-headwinds of late, it’s maintained the top 3 podium position (excluding Tether) and appears to be well poised for an exceptional late-cycle rally.

XRP pulled back with the rest of the market exactly where we predicted, in-line with BTC’s pullback at $109K back in December. Just as XRP pumped with Bitcoin in December, and has pulled back in price during bitcoin accumulation correction since then. I suspect it’s waiting for Bitcoin’s moment to resurge with conviction well past those December highs in order to keep up the pace once again. XRP during this accumulation period has held our previously predicted major support level perfectly at the lows of $1.60 since April and has bounced off with conviction and momentum since. Despite the recent 12-Day-War turbulence of late, we can see XRP is still making Higher Lows, again - retesting the top end of our support channel at $1.90 and continuing to push to higher local prices. Although we haven’t made a confirmed local Higher-High just yet, we can see that XRP over the last few months has solidified its price support and appears to be forming one of our favorite patterns this cycle; the Bull Flag.

A clearer view of the chart can be found here:https://www.tradingview.com/x/COZi7pG3/

So long as XRP holds the green zone of support above the 2021 highs, then I see XRP only gaining momentum from here once Bitcoin has given the green light to the Altcoin market that the final “melt-up” phase of the Bull run is ready for liftoff.

As for the discussion on Interest Rates and the narratives surrounding monetary policy coming out of the FED, as of July 1st, Chairman of the Federal Reserve – Jerome Powell was clear that Interest Rates remain in a sort of proverbial “holding-pattern” shifting the reasoning for this towards Trump’s ever evolving Tariff policies. It appears the FED want more certainty surrounding economic data before pulling their one-and-only lever to maintain fiscal stability; the lowering of interest rates. Trump being the everenigma tic and comedic leader of the free world, naturally sends a handwritten letter to Powell stating “You are as usual ‘too late’. You have cost the USA a FORTUNE and continue to do so – you should lower the rate by a lot!” making sure there are no misconceptions on his stance towards relatively hawkish monetary policy under his Presidency. The FED being a self-governed body however don’t answer to the whichever POTUS is currently in power, therefore we’ll need to see if there’s any further headbu􀆫ng from here between the two as Trump’s economic roadmap for America’s golden-age does actually hinge on easily accessible capital and free-flowing debt to keep the Fiat-driven equity markets propped up and drunk on cheap money for consistent long-term growth in post-GFC world.

What we’ve witnessed over the last few months is nothing short of a masterclass in how markets respond not just to macro events, but to the sentiment and positioning that follows them. From the chaos of global conflict to the calming green of market recovery, we’ve seen how quickly narratives can shift, however the charts always tell the truth. Bitcoin continues to lead with strength, supported by classic bullish patterns, while Ethereum and the altcoin majors remain quietly coiling in powerful accumulation zones. The 12-Day-War, Trump's kinetic diplomacy, and the ongoing tension between fiscal and monetary powers have only fueled the urgency for smart capital allocation in this cycle. As we move deeper into H2 2025, the window of opportunity narrows. The charts are aligned, sentiment is cautious, and the setups are clear; those who remain focused and positioned now may well be the ones leading the charge when the next leg of the bull run ignites. The message remains the same - stay informed, stay patient, and stay in position.

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