The Rake Review: July 2025

From Dormant Wallets to Record Highs and the Dawn of Altseason?

July was a month of contrasts for Bitcoin, with decade-old coins suddenly moving, fresh all-time highs, and the first major crypto regulations landing. The back half of the year has started stronger than expected, but can this momentum carry into a full-fledged altseason?

Blast from Bitcoin’s Past

Everyone wishes they bought Bitcoin earlier. Back in 2011, it was under $1. But even if you had bought it then, would you have held it until today? The likely answer is no. Most would have sold at $100, $1,000, or maybe $10,000.

The first challenge would have been simply buying it. Stormrake didn’t exist, so you couldn’t just call your broker for an allocation. Storing Bitcoin was also a headache. Hardware wallets like Ledger and Trezor didn’t exist, and the main exchange at the time, Mt. Gox, was hacked in 2013, with 7% of the total Bitcoin supply stolen.

So the likelihood of you still having your Bitcoin, even if you bought it in 2011, is extremely slim. You most likely would have been like the X user above, who actually did buy Bitcoin in 2011 but sold at $0.30. For those curious, his 1,700 BTC is now worth roughly $196 million USD or $298 million AUD.

This month, several wallets from that early era suddenly came to life. Eight ‘Satoshi-Era’ wallets moved over 80,000 BTC, worth more than $8.4 billion USD at the time. Speculation immediately swirled around the crypto community. Was it Silk Road creator Ross Ulbricht, freed by Trump earlier this year? Early Bitcoin evangelist Roger Ver, recently released from prison? Or even Satoshi Nakamoto himself?

The initial movements triggered a brief wave of selling as investors feared a massive dump. But it turned out to be simple wallet upgrades, moving coins from old, inefficient addresses to newer ones with lower fees. The owners remain a mystery.

Then, late this month, Galaxy Digital confirmed one of the largest Bitcoin sales in history: more than 80,000 BTC sold for over $9 billion USD. It caused another quick sell-off, but demand quickly absorbed it. The market barely flinched. The only losers were the panic sellers. Everyone else, including the mystery whale who turned a $54,000 investment into $9 billion in under 15 years, won.

If it really was Ulbricht or Ver, perhaps prison was a blessing in disguise. A decade without access to their Bitcoin meant they couldn’t sell, and that enforced patience paid off. Or maybe it was simply someone with true diamond hands. Either way, the lesson is clear. Holding Bitcoin through its volatile cycles, as we tell our Stormrake clients time and time again, has historically been the ultimate reward.

Has altseason finally arrived? The bull run that many have been waiting for may now be upon us. Historically, altseasons have been extremely rewarding for holders of altcoins, but this cycle has tested patience. Over the last 12 to 18 months, we have seen several false starts. Traders tried to front-run altseason, rotated heavily into alts, and ended up holding deep drawdowns. Could this finally be the real one?

When it comes to altseason, there are a few reliable signals. This time, multiple signals are aligning more clearly than ever. Those who have been in the crypto space for several cycles will be familiar with the traditional phases of altseason:

The path to altseason historically follows four overlapping phases. This current bull run has been dominated by Bitcoin and has effectively remained in Phase 1 for years. Bitcoin rose from $15.5K to well over $100K. While some sectors briefly outperformed—ISO tokens, real-world asset tokens—Bitcoin consistently led.

Phase 2 begins when Ethereum dominates, consistently outperforming Bitcoin and other altcoins. The key word here is consistency. Over the past few years, Ethereum occasionally outperformed Bitcoin for short bursts, but never for more than a couple of weeks. Many traders rotated too early, only to watch Bitcoin hit new all-time highs while Ethereum lagged.

The last few months have been different. Ethereum has now been consistently outperforming Bitcoin, supported by major institutional demand. Spot Ethereum ETF inflows have dwarfed Bitcoin ETF inflows on a market cap-adjusted basis. Since 2 July, Ethereum ETFs have not seen a single day of net outflows, while Bitcoin ETF flows have been mixed.

Phase 3 is when funds begin to rotate from Ethereum into the next set of large-cap altcoins: Binance Coin (BNB), Solana (SOL), Ripple (XRP), Hyperliquid (HYPE), and Sui (SUI). These coins start to lead the market and outperform both Bitcoin and Ethereum. We have already seen brief signs of this, with BNB and HYPE hitting new all-time highs while Ethereum remains below its peak. However, the outperformance must be sustained to confirm Phase 3. Until then, the market remains in Phase 2.

Price action is not the only way to identify altseason. Another key signal is Bitcoin dominance versus total altcoin market cap. Bitcoin dominance measures how much of the total crypto market cap is made up of Bitcoin. In a Bitcoin-led market, dominance rises above 60% while the altcoin market cap trends down. In contrast, during altseason, Bitcoin dominance breaks down while the total altcoin market cap rallies and breaks out. This does not necessarily mean Bitcoin falls—its price can still rise—but altcoins rise faster.

The charts above show Bitcoin dominance breaking down and the total altcoin market cap breaking out. Dominance now has a confirmed bearish structure with lower highs and lower lows, while the altcoin market cap has reversed into a bullish structure of higher highs and higher lows. Together, this is the strongest confirmation of altseason we have seen in this cycle.

It finally seems like altseason is here. The signals are clear, the false starts are behind us, and institutions are now showing a preference for Ethereum over Bitcoin. But altseason does not mean you should rotate your entire position from Bitcoin into altcoins. Experienced cycle traders know that the real strategy is to let altcoins grow your Bitcoin stack. Accumulate altcoins, take profits during the outperformance, and use those gains to buy more Bitcoin.

July Delivered. What’s Next for August?

Last month, we set a July target for Bitcoin to create a new all-time high around $117K–$118K. July more than delivered, with a new all-time high at $123K, and it ultimately closed the month right at our target zone, up 8% for July. The bullish structure has been fully confirmed, setting up the back half of the year in a strong position.

Now we turn to August. Historically, August has been a bearish month for Bitcoin, with an average return of -0.23%. Nine of the last 14 Augusts have closed red, including the last three in a row. On the surface, history doesn’t favour a green month.

But this cycle is different. Bitcoin’s strength lies in its extremely bullish market structure and in a factor it has never had in past cycles: institutional demand. Institutions have been the primary driver of this bull run, alongside the rising global money supply. These factors could still override August’s historical weakness, even as the market’s confidence in a September rate cut has wavered. With over a month until the next FOMC meeting, sentiment has room to shift. Two key CPI prints and the rollout of new tariffs will land before the decision, offering clarity on the Fed’s next move. Historically, markets have been quick to front-run anticipated policy shifts, which makes a bullish August entirely plausible despite current uncertainty.

The current chart continues to show clear bullish momentum. Bitcoin has entered a consolidation phase, moving sideways and building energy for its next leg up.

Price action is now testing the lower edge of this consolidation range, and with August being historically a bearish month, there is a chance we see a pullback towards the previous all-time high around $112K. This area aligns with the 55-day exponential moving average, which should act as a key bounce level if a sustained move lower occurs.

However, if August bucks its historical trend—as we expect it will—the breakout target from this consolidation range sits between $131.5K and $136K. These levels are supported by the 1.414 and 1.618 Fibonacci extension levels, as well as the central pivot range target at $132K.

Liberation Day Tariffs Set to Resume on August 1:

A dominant theme this year has been tariffs, with the event that shocked markets occurring in April—dubbed “Liberation Day” by Trump himself. A broad blanket of tariffs was placed on multiple countries, then delayed by 90 days to allow trade deal negotiations with the US. That deadline was later pushed to 1 August.

During the pause, several deals have been reached, most notably between the United States and the European Union. Countries that have not secured agreements by 1 August are expected to face the return of the Liberation Day tariffs.

Three Major Bills Passed During Crypto Week:

This month saw the inaugural Crypto Week, expected to be a milestone for crypto regulation, with three major bills targeted for passage: the GENIUS Act, CLARITY Act, and Anti-CBDC Act.

While the week started with a surprise setback as the initial vote to pass all three bills failed, a second vote days later saw all three approved. The GENIUS Act was signed into law on 18 July, marking a landmark moment for US crypto regulation and a strong step forward for the industry.

Geopolitical Escalations:

The conflict Trump claimed he could end within a day of taking office has once again moved to the forefront of investors’ minds. Frustrated by Russia’s continued refusal to engage in ceasefire or peace talks, Trump shortened his ceasefire deadline from 50 days to roughly 10.

If Russia does not comply, the US has threatened expanded sanctions and additional tariffs impacting all countries trading with Russia. This new deadline, expected in early August, is a critical factor to watch as it could influence market price action in the first weeks of the month.

Top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in July 2025:

Bitcoin rose by 8% in July.
Ethereum dominated, rising by 49% in July.
Tron slipped to 10th, being jumped by Lido Staked Ethereum and Dogecoin.
HBAR continues to climb the ranks, up 67% and into the top 20 projects by market cap.
The total crypto market cap grew by 14.18% in July.

Video of the month

Winning the AI Race Part 5: President Trump on the AI Action Plan and US Crypto plans for the next 5 years...

Education: What to Avoid This Altseason

If this month has taught us anything, it is that holding spot Bitcoin remains the most rewarding investment strategy. As shown in our opening section, the Satoshi-era wallets turned modest investments into generational wealth simply by holding. They didn’t trade in and out, they didn’t chase the hype, and they certainly didn’t use leverage.

Now that we’re in altseason, the allure of chasing fast gains is everywhere. Narratives will explode overnight, and social media will be flooded with people bragging about their 100x winners. The biggest challenge is sticking to your plan. For most investors, that means holding your Bitcoin, using altcoins only as a tool to accumulate more Bitcoin, and most importantly, avoiding leverage.

The path to wealth in Bitcoin is simple and has been proven cycle after cycle:

Step 1: Buy spot Bitcoin

Step 2: Do not use leverage

Step 3: Be patient and wait

It sounds almost too simple, but this is the formula that works. Most people fail to follow it because they crave action, chase short-term returns, or convince themselves that leverage is a shortcut to wealth.

Leverage offers the illusion of easy profits, but in reality it is a ticking time bomb. You pay daily fees to keep positions open, and your exposure to the market is amplified. Even the smallest fluctuation can wipe out 100% of your funds. This month was a perfect example. Bitcoin spent over two weeks consolidating between $116K and $120K, a move of less than 3%, yet billions in leveraged positions were liquidated. Traders lost everything in a market that barely moved.

History tells the same story. Every Bitcoin bear market has seen brutal drawdowns of 80% or more. These periods are designed to shake out the impatient and punish those overexposed with leverage. If the Satoshi-era whale had ever used leverage, they would never have survived the 80%+ drawdowns that defined prior bear markets. Their eventual multi-billion-dollar fortune was only possible because they did the simplest thing: held spot Bitcoin with patience.

The Rule of 90 is another grim reminder of why most traders fail. According to this rule, 90% of novice traders will lose 90% of their capital within their first 90 days. Meanwhile, 100% of Bitcoin holders who have held spot for longer than 4 years have always been in profit. The contrast between trading and simply holding could not be clearer.

Leverage is not for investors. Investors are the ones with long-term conviction who survive the cycles and never become forced sellers. Leverage amplifies mistakes, turns normal volatility into existential risk, and destroys the one thing you need most to succeed in Bitcoin: time in the market.

The lesson is simple but profound: buy spot Bitcoin, avoid leverage, and be patient. It may feel boring, but boring is what builds lasting wealth in Bitcoin. Excitement and leverage are what get traders liquidated.

Written by Alexandar Artis

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