The Rake Review: June

How Washington and the Middle East Shaped June’s Bitcoin Market

As with much of the first half of 2025, June's price action was largely influenced by news and decisions from the White House, alongside ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, but it has set itself up for a potentially bullish second half of the year.

A Month Shaped by Macro Headwinds:

June was a month of notable volatility, with macro catalysts flying left and right. Every other day, a new announcement seemed to shock the markets. Despite this, Bitcoin remained relatively steady throughout, which should be viewed as a positive. Bitcoin lived up to its reputation as digital hard money in June.

The month began with the aftermath of May’s late pullback from its all-time high, opening the door for both bulls and bears to fight for control. However, neither side seized the opportunity until another macro catalyst rattled the market: a fallout between US President Donald Trump and his right-hand man, Elon Musk. Words were exchanged on social media, and the once-strong bromance seemed over. Risk-on markets panicked, giving bears the upper hand.

That said, Bitcoin and the market soon realised the absurdity of the feud. The fact that a dispute between two high-profile figures could cause such disruption highlighted the market’s vulnerability, but Bitcoin quickly bounced back into its consolidation range. After breaking out, Bitcoin continued its ascent and was knocking on the door of its all-time highs. Then, conflict in the Middle East escalated, with Israel launching a pre-emptive attack on Iran's nuclear sites and other military targets and Iran launching ballistic missiles at Israeli cities in response. The risk-off sentiment returned quickly. Gold surged to new all-time highs, while crude oil spiked by 20% in two days. Yet, despite the rally in risk-off assets, risk-on assets didn’t react in the same way as in previous geopolitical crises. Traditional indices largely shrugged off the conflict, with the S&P 500 pulling back by less than 2% and the Nasdaq by 3%. Bitcoin showed a similar response, losing 11% during the conflict—far less than its usual reactions to global tensions. In the past, Bitcoin had dropped over 10% in a single day during such events. This 11% drop, over the course of the entire conflict, demonstrated the asset’s growing maturity.

In fact, these corrections should be welcomed, as they often lead to smart money accumulating Bitcoin while altcoins underperform. Historically, these corrections have been short-lived. Bitcoin has consistently recovered and pushed higher, typically within 60 days of such events.

Let’s take a look at Bitcoin’s performance during some of the most volatile macro events over the past five years:

While each event has triggered immediate volatility, Bitcoin has repeatedly persevered and rewarded those who took advantage of these short-term dips. In many cases, Bitcoin had recovered to break-even or positive just 10 days after the event. Two months later, the asset was in positive territory every single time. This is why we remained bullish despite the correction caused by the Middle East conflict—and will continue to be bullish during future events that may rock Bitcoin.

July Market Outlook: Ready for a Bullish Turn?

June proved to be another valuable lesson in holding strong with conviction and capitalising on corrections. With Bitcoin already up 10% from its monthly low, it’s now knocking on the door of all-time highs, setting the stage for what could be a strong second half of 2025.

We enter July with bullish momentum, but the market structure remains a cause for concern, still under the control of the bears. June underperformed its average, returning only 2.42%, and confirmed the bearish structure with a series of lower lows and lower highs, driven by negative macro catalysts.

Not only are we closing June, but we’re also finishing the first half of 2025, up 14.50%. While this is an improvement, it’s far from the explosive growth many had anticipated for the year. However, July could present the perfect opportunity for Bitcoin to finally live up to those 2025 expectations. With clearer tariff policies, settled interest rate expectations, and conflicts winding down—with a ceasefire between Israel and Iran confirmed, and Trump pushing for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, possibly in July—the fundamental catalysts are looking favourable for Bitcoin. Additionally, the global money supply continues to expand, and the US debt has now surpassed $37 trillion.

Historically, July has been a bullish month for Bitcoin, with nine out of the past fourteen July's returning positive gains. Those months that saw negative returns experienced relatively small drawdowns, with four of them dropping by less than 10%, and the largest drop being 16%. On average, Bitcoin has returned 8.26% in July.

Bitcoin bounced perfectly from the fair value gap identified last month, which corresponded with the monthly low. At present, Bitcoin is trading just at $107K, only a small percentage away from its all-time high. If Bitcoin can replicate its average July return of 8.26%, we could see new all-time highs around $116K. This aligns with the new CPR (Central Pivot Range) target of $117K and the key Fibonacci extension level of 1.414, which sits just above $118K.

However, before we talk about new all-time highs, Bitcoin must first break the current bearish structure and establish a new higher high above $110.6K. If Bitcoin creates another lower low, it will reinforce the bearish structure and likely trigger another sell-off. But if a new higher high is established, Bitcoin should continue pushing higher, potentially creating a new all-time high and venturing much further.

Stablecoin GENIUS Act Passed:

Amid the chaos in the Middle East this month, something significant passed under the radar—the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act, or the Genius Act. One of the key promises of the Trump administration was to provide clearer regulations surrounding cryptocurrency, and it’s safe to say that promise has been delivered.

The purpose of the Genius Act is to establish the first comprehensive federal framework for regulating payment stablecoins in the U.S. The act aims to provide regulatory clarity, enhance consumer protections, and promote innovation, all while ensuring financial stability. Some key features of the bill include:

A clear definition of payment stablecoins
Reserve requirements (stablecoin issuers must hold 1:1 reserves)
Licensing requirements
And more

The bill has the backing of influential figures such as Senator Cynthia Lummis, as well as USDC issuers Circle and Coinbase. On the other hand, anti-crypto Senator Elizabeth Warren was a vocal critic of the bill, though to no avail.

The stablecoin industry is a $250 billion market, making up roughly 8% of the entire crypto market cap, with USDT in the lead and USDC in second place. The new bill opens the door for potential new competitors to challenge the dominance of these two major players. For general users, it could make stablecoins a more mainstream form of payment, while also providing compliant, regulated options that offer more clarity and safety, helping to avoid future collapses like Terra's UST in 2022.

Although this bill does not directly impact Bitcoin, its passage is undoubtedly a positive step for the broader crypto space. It signals a promising shift towards more thoughtful regulation within the industry and demonstrates that lawmakers, as well as major institutions, are increasingly supportive of pro-crypto bills. We can expect more legislation in the future, whether it’s further bills around Bitcoin, decentralized finance, or broader crypto clarity within the U.S. This marks a significant step toward fulfilling Trump’s promise of making the United States the home of cryptocurrency according to his administration.

Circle IPO performance:

Circle made waves in the traditional market space this month following its initial public offering (IPO). The company debuted at $31 on June 4th, quickly rallying to over $100 within the first day of trading before closing at $83. Since then, Circle has continued its remarkable upward trajectory, benefitting significantly from the passing of the Genius Act. As the primary issuer of USDC, the stablecoin bill has propelled Circle's stock, which is now trading at $180—up from its debut price in less than a month. Just a week ago, Circle reached a high of $298.99. It’s safe to say this has been one of the most successful IPOs in recent memory.

Big Beautiful BIll passed:

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, a key legislative priority for President Donald Trump, advanced in the Senate, with a 51-50 procedural vote. Despite concerns over its fiscal impact, the Senate’s version of the bill includes permanent extensions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, new tax breaks for tips and overtime, and significant spending on border security and defence. The bill is projected to cost $4.45 trillion over a decade. Critics—including Democrats and some Republicans—argue that the steep cuts to Medicaid and SNAP, combined with a $5 trillion debt ceiling increase, disproportionately harm low-income Americans while favouring the wealthy. This has sparked significant controversy, with the Senate now debating amendments ahead of a potential passage deadline on July 4, 2025.

Texas officially has a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve:

Texas has officially become the third US state to establish its own Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR), further demonstrating the growing institutional and political integration of Bitcoin. Texas Governor Greg Abbott has expressed expectations that the state will invest tens of millions of dollars into Bitcoin through this publicly funded reserve. However, the Texas SBR differs from the federal version established by Trump in January. The Texas reserve is funded through state funds and voluntary contributions, aiming to diversify Texas's finances. In contrast, the federal Strategic Bitcoin Reserve uses seized crypto assets to strengthen national economic security—without tapping taxpayer dollars.

Top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in June 2025:

Bitcoin rose just 2.42% in June.
Ethereum fell 1.62% in June.
Cardano fell out of the top 10, replaced by Lido Staked Ethereum.
Bitcoin dominance is at a multi-year high at 66%.
The total crypto market cap grew by just 1.15% in June.

Video of the month

Jack Mallers Speech at BTCPrague

Bitcoin & SMSFs 101 Webinar: Insights with EasySuper

DATE: 30 July 2025 at 6:00 pm AEST

If you missed the original, this is your chance — don’t waste it.

Education - How to use Bitcoin:

There are many who have heard of Bitcoin, and some choose to ignore or discount it. Among those who invest in it, even fewer truly understand its purpose and utility.

Most Bitcoin investors see it as just a speculative asset—one that has outperformed nearly every other investment over the years—and they're right. But Bitcoin is much more than just a speculative investment; its use case extends far beyond that.

Bitcoin was initially created as a means of exchange, designed to operate away from centralised third parties. It was intended to be exchanged peer-to-peer and to be inflation-proof, thanks to its fixed supply of 21 million tokens, making it immune to manipulation by any central authority.

Means of Exchange:

Bitcoin’s primary use was as a means of exchange, and even though its price has exploded over time, this hasn’t changed. Bitcoin remains a key peer-to-peer method of exchange. Regardless of its dollar value, Bitcoin can always be used as a means of exchange, and its divisibility ensures that it can serve even for smaller transactions.

Bitcoin is divisible to eight decimal places, with one Bitcoin consisting of 100 million satoshis. At current prices, one satoshi is worth approximately $0.00107 USD. This shows the incredible flexibility of Bitcoin as a medium of exchange. Whether you’re buying a coffee or paying for a service, all you need is a Bitcoin wallet, and you’ll always have access to a decentralised means of exchange—without the need for any third parties.

Store of Value:

Bitcoin as a store of value has been criticised by many skeptics who point to its volatility and bear markets as evidence that it cannot fulfil this role. While it’s true that Bitcoin is volatile and has experienced severe drawdowns, it’s incorrect to claim that it can’t function as a store of value.

Those who understand Bitcoin have been using it as a savings vehicle. With fiat currencies constantly devaluing, Bitcoin’s price appreciation against these currencies has proven its potential as a store of value. Long-term holders (Hodlers) have welcomed market corrections, viewing them as opportunities to accumulate more Bitcoin at lower prices.

A classic example of Bitcoin’s store of value can be seen in its purchasing power over time. Take a look at the chart below:

Australian Median House Price in Bitcoin (2014-2024)

In 2014, over 3,000 Bitcoin was required to buy the median Australian home. Today, less than 10 Bitcoin is needed to purchase the same home. Meanwhile, house prices in AUD have steadily increased over the past decade. This clearly demonstrates Bitcoin’s purchasing power growth compared to the declining purchasing power of fiat currency. This trend isn’t limited to real estate—everyday goods and services exhibit the same pattern, showing that Bitcoin has not only protected purchasing power but enhanced it.

Collateral & Borrowing:

For those who understand Bitcoin’s potential but are unsure how to spend it while retaining its value, the solution lies in using Bitcoin as collateral. Similar to using property as collateral, you can leverage your Bitcoin holdings to acquire fiat currency without having to sell or dispose of your Bitcoin.

As the crypto ecosystem has expanded, Bitcoin-backed loans have become widely available. This allows you to borrow fiat currency based on the value of your Bitcoin holdings, meaning you can continue to spend without parting with your Bitcoin. An added bonus is that borrowing against Bitcoin is not considered a taxable event.

The True Power of Bitcoin:

In its relatively short lifespan, Bitcoin has proven that it is much more than just a speculative investment. The ability to use Bitcoin as a means of exchange has been fundamental from the start—and will remain so. Bitcoin continues to defy critics who claim it isn’t a reliable store of value, and it has solved the key issue that many Bitcoin holders faced: how to extract value from Bitcoin without selling or disposing of it. By using Bitcoin as collateral, it is now possible to unlock the liquidity of your Bitcoin while preserving it as a store of value.

Yes, Bitcoin has proven to be an excellent investment asset, but it is also so much more.

Written by Alexandar Artis

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