You Waited for $75k. It’s Here. Now What?

For weeks, the loudest call in crypto was the same: wait for $75k. Two weeks ago, in “Everyone Is Waiting for $75k. That Is Exactly the Problem.”, we asked whether that cheaper entry would ever come. This morning, Bitcoin is trading just under $75,000. The price the crowd asked for is here.

So the question is simple. Is this the moment you finally buy, or will you do what so many do and move the target lower again?

The Goalposts Always Move

Most people waiting for a dip don’t really want a lower price. They want certainty, and certainty never arrives at the bottom. When price reaches their level the headlines are grim, the charts look heavy and fear takes over. $75k becomes $70k, then $65k, and the waiting goes on until price is back above where they started. Many end up buying higher than the level they were waiting for, if they buy at all.

We have covered why markets pulled back in recent notes, so we won’t repeat it here. One update is worth noting: oil has taken another leg lower. Brent crude fell around 5% on Monday to roughly $93 a barrel, as President Trump signalled restraint on Iran and hopes of a peace deal grew. That leaves Brent more than $20 below its late October high, and the inflation tailwind we flagged yesterday keeps building.

Five Red Weeks

The bigger story came at yesterday’s weekly close. Bitcoin has now closed five red weeks in a row, sliding from $86,500 at the start of October to $74,754.

In our Q4 Outlook and in “After Three Red Weeks, Bitcoin Has a Habit”, we studied streaks of red weeks across the last three bull market cycles, from 2015 to 2025. After three red weeks, the next week closed green 70.6% of the time. After four, it closed green in all five cases. This time, the fifth week closed red as well.

That isn’t the data failing. Those figures came from bull markets, and this isn’t one yet. It isn’t a bear market either. As we set out in the Outlook, Bitcoin sits in the early phase of expansion between the two, the stretch where the recovery is still widely doubted.

Only Four Times Before

Five red weeks in a row is rare. It has happened only four times before in Bitcoin’s history, and every one came in a bear market:

• March to April 2014: 5 weeks, down 34.8%

• August to October 2014: 6 weeks, down 36.3%

• March to May 2022: 9 weeks, down 37.1%

• January to March 2026: 6 weeks, down 29.8%

Those streaks cost Bitcoin around 35% on average. This one has cost 13.6%, less than half the damage of any before it, and by our read of the cycle, it is the first to happen outside a bear market.

Every one of those streaks came to an end, the longest after nine weeks. Even in bear market conditions, three of the four had Bitcoin higher eight weeks after the final red close, by 58.1%, 16.5% and 19.6%. The exception was 2022, when the fallout from Terra, Celsius and Three Arrows Capital dragged the whole market lower.

The Recipe Is Set

Put it together. Bitcoin is sitting at the price the crowd spent weeks asking for. It has just completed a losing streak that has only ever appeared in bear markets, with less than half the usual damage. And oil keeps falling, easing the inflation pressure that has weighed on risk assets.

Streaks like this don’t last forever, and the turn rarely announces itself. It doesn’t arrive with good news or a clear signal. It arrives while sentiment is at its worst, which is exactly why so many miss it. When the green week comes, and history says it is closer than it feels, $75k could quickly be in the rear view mirror.

The Question Worth Asking

You told yourself you would buy at $75k. Bitcoin is there. Is the plan still the plan, or has the target quietly moved to $70k?

Waiting for the perfect bottom has a long record of leaving people on the sidelines. The ones who do well tend to be those who set their level in advance and act when it arrives.

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Stormrake Spotlight: Zcash (ZEC) ($1,174)

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/KWntdV1b/

ZEC has fallen just over 3% in the last 24 hours, despite the rest of the market holding firm or trading green. It remains in consolidation and looks to be forming a bear flag. If Bitcoin can bounce, we can expect ZEC to follow, but if BTC continues lower, the bear flag will likely play out.

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BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/SrVBpEMs/

Bitcoin has had a volatile day, sliding back below $74k before reversing intraday to turn green and reclaim $75k. There is large demand below current price, with previous key levels now acting as support. It would take a lot for BTC to break through this zone, but for now the bears remain in control of momentum.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

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Written by Alexandar Artis