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This Morning’s Liquidity Sweep Below $75,000, Explained

· Technical Analysis · Stormrake

  • BTC
  • ZEC

A winking Bitcoin coin sweeps a pile of banknotes and coins across the floor with a broom, with a startled mouse peeking out of the pile

A record AI sell-off pulled Bitcoin under its September low. Now, the recovery is following a pattern we discussed in October.

Last Thursday, Wall Street had one of its most violent days in years. By Friday, Bitcoin had briefly broken below $75,000 for the first time since August, and buyers were already stepping back in.

In late October, our “Hasta La Vista, Bears” note looked at how early 2023 handled a moment like this. Here is what happened last week, why it hit Bitcoin, and how it compares.

A Record Day, for the Wrong Reasons

On Thursday 5 November, the Nasdaq Composite fell 5.5%, a record drop of 1,421 points. The Nasdaq 100 lost about $2.3 trillion in market value, and S&P 500 companies about $2.9 trillion according to Dow Jones Market Data, both the largest one-day losses ever recorded in dollar terms. Chip stocks were hit hardest: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 12%, its worst day since March 2020.

In percentage terms, it was the Nasdaq’s worst day since April 2025. In dollar terms, it was the biggest one-day wipeout on record.

Why AI Stocks Cracked

The trigger was the midterms. With Democrats taking both chambers of Congress, investors moved to price the risk of tighter rules on the AI buildout. That would slow growth for the chipmakers and data-centre suppliers that have powered much of this year’s market rally.

Selling by trend-following systematic funds then amplified the move, turning a sharp repricing into a record rout.

Why It Hit Bitcoin

When large investors cut risk, they sell what moves the most, and Bitcoin trades around the clock. Leverage did the rest. Wednesday’s jump above $80,000 was partly short covering, with about $378 million of bets against Bitcoin liquidated in one hour. On Thursday the same machinery ran in reverse: about $428 million of leveraged longs were wiped out within an hour, and US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $430 million of outflows.

Miners took a double hit. MARA and Riot, which have been repositioning their power infrastructure for AI data centres, fell around 14%.

None of this came from Bitcoin’s own fundamentals.

A Familiar Pattern

On Friday, after the US open, Bitcoin dipped to $74,762, its lowest since 21 August, taking out both the $75,000 round number and the September low near $75,600. Buyers stepped in quickly, and within hours price was back near $75,800.

In “Hasta La Vista, Bears”, we looked at early 2023, when a quick dip below the previous local low in March shook out late buyers shortly before a 26% week.

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/98iLeaX1/

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/98iLeaX1/

We raised the possibility of a similar sweep below the September low this time, while noting that this cycle’s pullbacks have tended to run shallower. Last week fitted that picture. Bitcoin dipped about 1% below the September low, and the full pullback from $87,400 came to about 14.5%, against more than 20% in 2023. Below we demonstrate and discuss how the technical structure stacks up with today’s price cascade.

What Friday’s Jobs Report Told Us

The US added 165,000 jobs in October, more than double the roughly 65,000 expected, and unemployment slipped to 4.1%. Wages rose 0.4% for the month. Odds of a December Fed hike, which had dropped to 67% during Thursday’s sell-off, bounced back to around 80%.

A strong labour market keeps December’s hike in play, but that is one hike, and markets have priced it for weeks. With oil doing the cooling on the inflation side, the case for any hike after December gets weaker by the week.

Oil Is Still Doing the Heavy Lifting

Brent crude fell from near $118 a barrel on 30 October to about $94 by Thursday, as markets bet on an end to the Iran war. A common rule of thumb says every $10 move in oil shifts headline inflation by about 0.2 percentage points. A $24 fall, if it holds, would take roughly half a point off over the coming months. That is the slow-burning tailwind beneath last week’s noise.

What We Are Watching

The weekly close, 11:00 am AEDT today. A relatively strong close with a large bottom wick as buyers hurry in to buy the dip would point to last weeks and this mornings quick liquidation slide being a shakeout before pushing prices higher.

US inflation, 12:30 am AEDT Wednesday. October’s CPI still reflects October’s high oil prices. The relief shows up in November’s figures, due on 10 December, the day after the Fed decides.

AI stocks. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 rebounded on Friday. A steadier tech market would take pressure off every risk asset, Bitcoin included.

In 2023, a dip like this came shortly before the rally resumed. This time it was shallower, and buyers are already showing up within the hour to seize the opportunity.

Stormrake Spotlight: Zcash (ZEC) ($1,218)

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/UzIp2DpK/

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/UzIp2DpK/

Zcash (ZEC) made another push higher into the top end of our channeled resistance, with a high of $1,388 over the weekend, with an -11% pullback from the level, now sitting comfortably at $1,218 in the middle of the consolidation zone after this morning’s liquidation slide. If Bitcoin keeps mirroring the 2023 recovery-post initial sell-off, this’ll likely see alts follow suit and creep higher over the coming weeks ahead.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/rf1UxERB/

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/rf1UxERB/

Bitcoin has now mirrored our above mentioned Q1 2023 early breakout structure to a tee. Considering the recent bear market followed the 2022 bearish structure so similarly too, if we get a post liquidation immediate V-shape recovery in a similar fashion - this will have setup BTC for a monster rally in the coming months. Whilst we aren’t entirely out of the woods yet - we suspect that those who don’t deploy with maximum conviction today will likely have post-pump regret if we keep mirroring the previous cycle. There was no fundamental flaw and narrative headwind for today’s selling - just pure mechanical price-action, designed to take out leveraged positions sitting below the Sept. $75K low. Markets like to ensure the least amount of people are profitable before the inevitable occurs, and Bitcoin is no exception. Once the recovery is obvious to everyone and you’re reading about new all time highs on the front page once again - it’s already too late. Today - the gift to buy discounted prices in the mid-70’s once again is here and now, and just like any Black Friday deal, it doesn’t stick around forever.

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by James Ryan