Bitcoin Holds Firm Against Two-Decade High Yields

The RBA is expected to lift rates this afternoon. That would take the cash rate to 4.60%, the highest since 2011. The bigger story is offshore, where the world’s most important interest rate has broken out.

The US 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.23% overnight, a level not seen since 2007. The 30-year is at 5.55%, its highest since 2004. Before the Iran conflict began in February, the 10-year sat just under 4%.

In past cycles, a move like that would have crushed crypto. This time, Bitcoin is standing its ground.

A Healthy Reset

Bitcoin traded at $87,270 last Tuesday. Over the same week, the 10-year yield posted its biggest daily jump since the Liberation Day tariff shock of April 2025.

Bitcoin pulled back straight to $83,000, the level we have been flagging for months. The bears had their chance to break it and failed. Price bounced, and $83,000 is now acting as support.

The pullback was driven by leverage, not by a loss of conviction. Since last Tuesday’s high, more than US$1.5 billion in long positions have been liquidated, compared with about US$750 million in shorts. Late longs who chased the breakout were flushed out.

That is a healthy reset. The excess leverage is gone and the key level held. As long as $83,000 holds, the breakout structure stays intact.

The Buyers Haven’t Left

Spot demand tells the real story. US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in about US$2.4 billion last week, in the middle of a bond market sell-off. Strategy added another 1,665 BTC over the same period.

Leveraged traders were forced out. Long-term buyers stepped in. That is the kind of rotation you want to see.

Good Yields, Bad Yields

Not all yield rises are equal. If yields climb on inflation or debt fears, that tends to hurt risk assets. If they climb because the economy is running hot, the picture is very different.

Deutsche Bank’s analysis suggests the current move is mostly about growth, with inflation expectations explaining only a sliver of the rise. That is a far better backdrop for risk assets than the headlines suggest, and Bitcoin’s price action reflects it.

Closer to Home

For Australians, this rate cycle is landing somewhere personal: the family home.

National home values fell 0.9% in August, the fifth straight monthly decline. Prices are now 3.6% below their March peak, and 93% of capital city suburbs have fallen over the past three months. Higher-end homes in Sydney and Melbourne are down more than 10%.

Today’s expected hike adds to the pressure. Owners are paying more to hold an asset that is worth less.

Property has been Australia’s default investment for decades, and it has worked. But it is also a large, leveraged and concentrated bet. When rates rise and prices fall at the same time, that concentration shows. No asset only goes up, and diversification matters, in property and crypto alike.

The Bottom Line

Rates are rising everywhere, including here at home this afternoon. Bitcoin is holding above $83,000 with yields near two-decade highs. The leverage has been flushed, the key level has held and spot buyers keep showing up. That resilience is worth paying attention to, though it is never guaranteed.

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Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,133)

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/h2dbUg6W/

This is the cleanest bearish move in PAXG in a while. It lost nearly 3% yesterday, almost reversing the entire rally from the start of August.

It has also confirmed the flip to red for 2026, and silver even more so. That shows how fast things can change. At the start of the year, people were queuing for hours and paying remarkable spreads to buy precious metals.

The bears have reclaimed momentum and structure. Our attention now turns to the lower support zone around $4,000, the low of the year.

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BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/4hIFcPTs/

Bitcoin has bounced from the key level we have discussed many times. This is the second retest since last week’s high. BTC is down nearly 5% from that high, and the late longs have been liquidated.

Pullbacks in bullish phases tend to be quick and shallow. So far, this one fits the pattern.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

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Written by Alexandar Artis