Bitcoin Heads for Its Best Quarter in Nearly Two Years

Bitcoin is up 43.1% for Q3 with one day of trading left. If that holds, it will be the best quarter since Q4 2024 (+47.7%). It would also be the third-best quarter since US spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024.

It also breaks a painful streak. Bitcoin fell 23.2% in Q4 2025, 22.1% in Q1 2026 and 14.1% in Q2 2026. Three straight losing quarters, then this.

The Trigger Was the Bond Market

The turn came on 19 August. The US Treasury doubled the size of its long-dated bond buybacks, from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation.

The timing mattered. The 30-year Treasury yield had just hit 5.34%, its highest level in 19 years. The buyback announcement pulled it back towards 5.19%. Lower long-term yields make risk assets more attractive, and Bitcoin was the fastest to reprice.

Bitcoin went from around $64,100 to $69,500 in under 12 hours. It has since climbed roughly 30% from that point.

The ETF Money Came Back

Last week US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $2.4 billion, the biggest week since October 2025. BlackRock’s IBIT alone took $1.2 billion.

That flipped ETF flows for 2026 back into positive territory. In mid-July they were almost $5.8 billion in the red. They are now roughly $900 million in the green.

For our clients, this is the part that matters most. Price can be pushed around by leverage. ETF flows are real capital from advisers, funds and institutions choosing to buy.

The Cost of Waiting

Bear markets end quietly, with most people still sceptical. The last time Bitcoin came out of a bear market, in Q1 2023, it rallied 72% in a single quarter. Many investors who waited for confirmation paid far higher prices to get in.

We are seeing the same pattern now. Since 19 August, every week of waiting for more certainty has come at a higher price. In our view, the window to position at bear market levels is getting smaller the longer investors wait.

What This Means

A strong quarter does not confirm a new bull market on its own. What would make the case is sustained ETF inflows and long-term yields staying contained into November. We will track both closely in the weeks ahead.

For now, the takeaway is simple. The capital that left Bitcoin in the first half of the year is coming back. The bear market low is in, and the risk now is being too cautious rather than too early.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,186)

PAX Gold daily chart at $4,187, bouncing after losing the $4,329 must hold level, above the key zone to watch at $3,900 to $4,000 and below the broken key zone at $4,463 to $4,600

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/rrpbmMjN/

PAXG has bounced after yesterday’s red day, with buyers stepping in below $4,200. Momentum and structure remain bearish, but today’s green candle shows buyers are still active at these levels.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin hourly chart at $83,716, consolidating above the higher time frame key level at $83,000, with the 2026 yearly open at $87,648 and resistance at $88,888 above, and $80,600 below

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/TO5m89YI/

Bitcoin is holding just above the key $83,000 level. We continue to expect this level to hold while the bulls control the overall momentum and structure. For those looking to buy pullbacks, this consolidation zone may offer a better opportunity than waiting for deeper discounts, which may not come before the next leg higher.

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Disclaimer

This information is general in nature and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation, or needs. Before acting, you should consider whether this information is appropriate for your circumstances and seek independent advice if necessary.

Digital assets are volatile and carry significant risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You may lose some or all of your investment.