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The Fed's Problem, Not Bitcoin's

· Breaking News · Stormrake

  • BTC
  • ZEC

An oil painting in the style of Thomas Cole’s The Course of Empire: Destruction, where a glowing Bitcoin shines through a lightning storm above a burning harbour, ships flying sails marked CPI Hotter Than Expected, Hike, Nvidia, and Fed burn on the water, banners reading Inflation and Leverage trail through the wreckage, and a giant warrior statue raises its shield beside a cracked Federal Reserve building

US inflation came in hotter than expected overnight. Headline CPI rose 0.4% for the month against 0.3% expected, and core rose 0.3% against 0.2%.

There was no annual figure this time. Last year’s government shutdown left the Bureau of Labor Statistics without an October 2025 base to compare against, so the monthly readings are the only signal markets have to work with. They were enough. A 25 basis point hike at the Fed’s 8 to 9 December meeting is now priced as the most likely outcome.

Leverage Takes the Hit

Risk assets sold off on the print, and Bitcoin extended its slide into the low $70,000s, dipping below $73,000 before buyers stepped back in.

The volatility cleared out roughly $700 million in leveraged positions, with longs taking most of the losses. ETF demand hasn't helped either. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw another $201 million in net outflows on Monday, and BlackRock's IBIT has now recorded seven straight sessions of outflows.

Nvidia’s Problem is Nvidia’s

Nvidia has shed nearly 10% in two sessions, falling 4.3% on Monday and 5.5% on Tuesday. It would be easy to read that as the AI trade cracking again, but the rest of the sector says otherwise. Chip stocks rallied nearly 7% on Monday while Nvidia fell, and AMD and Broadcom rose again on Tuesday.

This one is company specific. The board has opened an independent investigation into CEO Jensen Huang, and a shareholder class action has already been filed. All eyes now turn to Q3 earnings on 17 November.

Zoom Out

At around $74,000, Bitcoin sits about 41% below its record high of $126,272. It is around 11% lower than a month ago and roughly 15% below its early October peak above $87,000.

It’s worth being clear about where that selling has come from: a hotter print, rate hikes being priced back in, ETF outflows and leverage being flushed. All of it is macro and positioning. None of it has come from anything breaking in Bitcoin itself.

There is an irony here too. The very thing knocking Bitcoin today is the case for owning it. Inflation that refuses to settle, and a central bank forced to keep chasing it, is a reminder of how quickly cash loses its purchasing power. In the short term, Bitcoin trades like a risk asset and feels the squeeze when rates rise. Over the long term, it is the fixed supply alternative to a currency that keeps losing value. Today's headwind is tomorrow's argument.

What We Are Watching

Nvidia earnings, 17 November. A clean result would take pressure off tech and, with it, risk assets more broadly.

The Fed, 8 to 9 December. One hike is now the base case. What matters for Bitcoin is whether the Fed signals it is one and done.

Rates will set the tone into December. The bigger picture hasn’t budged.

Stormrake Spotlight: Zcash (ZEC) ($1,060)

Zcash daily chart near $1,060 after breaking down out of its bear flag channel, below the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at $1,145 and just under range support at $1,065, with the flag’s projected move pointing below the 0.5 retracement at $974 toward a demand zone around the 0.618 retracement at $803

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/A2cvM5kx/

The bear flag we mentioned yesterday has confirmed and is now playing out, with ZEC breaking below the bottom of the channel after losing around 9% over the last 24 hours. If the bear flag reaches its full projection, we should see ZEC below $1,000, especially if Bitcoin continues to sell off.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin chart back above the 2025 low at $74,508 after an overnight wick to around $72,700 below the early 2024 high at $73,777, with the shorter moving averages now sitting on that support zone, a longer moving average sloping down overhead, and the $80,600 key level, the higher time frame key level at $83,000, and the 2026 yearly open above

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/RufKZxfA/

Bitcoin continues its slide after falling to $72.7k overnight. It is looking to find support at the levels identified on the chart above, the early 2024 high and the 2025 low between $73.8k and $74.5k. However, the moving averages have now made their way down to these levels and will continue to put bearish pressure on BTC.

The bulls need to get back above $76.2k, the consolidation high before the breakdown, to regain momentum and structure.

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Disclaimer

This information is general in nature and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation, or needs. Before acting, you should consider whether this information is appropriate for your circumstances and seek independent advice if necessary.

Digital assets are volatile and carry significant risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You may lose some or all of your investment.