PPI Shock: Inflation Gauge Crashes Below Forecasts

Bitcoin is showing it’s strength again in the aftermath of much lower than expected PPI data, reaching a peak last night of $114,300. Gold had a green day given the news, closing at $3,640. Silver also closing in the green at $41.16 - again, holding steady and accumulating sideways likely waiting for a FED rate cut next week to solidify a continuation of bullishness.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) data came in for August and rocked the markets; U.S. wholesale inflation cooled far more than analysts expected with the PPI falling -0.1% month-over-month, after a revised +0.7% rise in July. Year-over-year, PPI came in at **+**2.6%, well below the ~3.3% forecast. The drop in service prices, especially the margins for wholesale and retailers was a major contributor. Energy prices also eased slightly, whilst goods were up a modest amount.

Markets now widely expect the Federal Reserve to deliver a rate cut at its upcoming meeting, with 25 basis points seen as the base case and growing speculation around a potential 50 basis point move as we pointed out to readers in our Morning Note yesterday. While the quarter of a percent cut seems most probable, it’s hard to ignore the increasingly dovish possibility of a larger cut - and what that would deliver to the market in terms of sentiment-shift from the FED and their firm stance on monetary policy. Inflation was their number one concern, and with excellent data coming in thwarting this narrative, it’ll be extremely advantageous for Risk-on markets like Cryptocurrency if we see a larger than expected cut in the short-term.

Bitcoin Bulls held the line yesterday and came in swinging to defend the $110K zone, actually getting us trading above the elusive $112K resistance for the first time in weeks. Clearly the softer-than-expected inflation data helped tremendously with this - and we hope so see the CPI data that comes in tonight sing a similar tune. If so, and we see Bulls keep up the buying strength overnight, we might finally have enough momentum to put the last month of trend chop behind us as we enter clearer skies ahead.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hedera (HBAR) ($0.234)

HBAR is trying to buck-the-trend and reverse back up, however it’s not out of the woods quite yet. A nice sustained push above the MA 20 is the first step, however it’ll need to gain local trend resistance at $0.245 in order to actually reverse back into a bullish stance. Keep a close eye on this in the wake of the looming CPI data tonight.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin finally made a sustained push above the $112K-$113K zone and sees us currently sitting healthily around $114K. While small timeframes such as the 1hr chart are starting to look better, we need to see this follow through to bullish reversal structures on the Daily and Weekly timeframes in order to ultimately confirm the upside reversal in the short-term. Hopefully, if CPI data comes in lower than forecast tonight, that’ll give the market the extra nudge it needs to keep moving higher so we can get a broader confirmation and have twitter proclaiming “we’re so back” once again.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 10 Sep: $ 530.3 million

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Create a brokerage account today

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

Disclaimer

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.