The Book Has Cleared. Now It's Spot's Turn

Last week we looked at the $16 billion Bitcoin options expiry. The big question was whether it would drag price lower before settlement.

It didn’t. Bitcoin has spent the past week sitting between $83,000 and $85,000. Instead of a sell-off, we got silence. Trading has slowed, borrowed money has left the market, and Bitcoin is waiting for its next real buyer.

That quiet is the story.

Where the Leverage Went

Leverage is borrowed money used to make bigger bets. When price moves the wrong way, those bets get forcibly closed, which is what traders call a liquidation.

That clean-out started just before expiry. On 23 September alone, $581 million in leveraged positions were wiped out, most of them bets on higher prices. Since then, traders have kept closing positions. Total open bets in Bitcoin futures are now at their lowest since March, roughly 20% below August levels.

In simple terms, the excess has been flushed out. The market is no longer leaning heavily one way or the other.

The New Book Looks Familiar

With the old contracts gone, traders have started placing new bets for October and beyond. They look a lot like the ones that just expired.

Bets on higher prices still outnumber bets on lower ones. The most popular October bets sit at $90,000 and $95,000, while traders are also buying protection around $75,000 and $60,000 into year-end.

That’s a sensible mix. Traders expect higher prices but are insuring against a drop. It’s not euphoria. It’s measured conviction.

Why Quiet Can Be Constructive

A market with little leverage has fewer forced sellers. That means less risk of a small dip snowballing into a large one.

History offers some support. Bitfinex notes that similar resets since 2022 have been followed by a median 30-day gain of 8.9% in Bitcoin.

But there’s a catch, and Bitfinex makes it clearly. Less leverage limits how fast price can fall, but it does not create a buyer. That buyer has to come from people actually buying Bitcoin, not betting on it.

The Missing Piece Is Real Buying

This is where it gets less straightforward. In the week of the expiry, Bitcoin ETFs took in $2.25 billion, the most in a single week since October 2025. Since then, that demand has cooled. Wednesday saw $148.69 million flow out, ending a nine-day run of inflows.

There’s also a wall of sellers overhead. Around 760,000 BTC was bought between $84,000 and $85,000. Many of those buyers will be happy just to get their money back. That goes a long way to explaining why $85,000 keeps turning price away.

The Bottom Line

Last week we said that once the options book reset, price would be freer to move on genuine demand. That’s exactly where we are. The excess leverage is gone and traders are still leaning higher.

What happens next comes down to real buying. If ETF demand returns with conviction, a market this light on leverage can move quickly, and the path toward $90,000 we outlined last week stays very much intact. If it doesn’t, expect more sideways trading until it does.

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Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,190)

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/4sVQyPIa/

PAXG is consolidating after Monday’s breakdown. Since then, price has traded green, red, then green again, with no clear direction either way. That pause shouldn’t be mistaken for a recovery. Bears remain in control, and this looks more like a breather than a turnaround. Unless buyers can reclaim the level lost on Monday, the path of least resistance remains lower.

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BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/nQAxMbnA/

Bitcoin is up nearly 1.5% over the last 24 hours and is making another run at $85,000, a level that turned price away on each of the last two nights. With momentum building behind this move, it could be third time lucky. A clean close above $85,000 would open the door to a retest of the September high near $87,400. Another rejection, though, would keep Bitcoin boxed in its current range, with $82,500 as the support to hold.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

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Written by Alexandar Artis