You Waited for October. Now What?

October is here. For a lot of Bitcoin investors, this is the month they have been waiting all year for.

It matters for two reasons. One is seasonal and one is cyclical, and this year they land at the same time.

Why October Matters Twice

October has earned its reputation as “Uptober”. From 2013 to 2025, Bitcoin closed October higher in 10 of 13 years. The average October gain is close to 20%. The median is lower, around 14%, because a few huge years pull the average up. Either way, it is one of the strongest months on the calendar.

This October also has a second meaning. Twelve months ago, Bitcoin set its all-time high of roughly $126,000. Four days later, on 10 October 2025, the market had the worst day in its history. Close to $20 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out in 24 hours. Bitcoin finished that month down about 4%. It was the first red October since 2018.

The 12-Month Rule

History gives a second reason to watch this month. In past cycles, the bear market low has arrived around 12 months after the previous all-time high:

• The December 2017 peak was followed by the December 2018 low.
• The November 2021 peak was followed by the November 2022 low.

Count 365 days from last October’s high and you land in early October 2026. The theory is simple and easy to repeat, so it spread quickly. Many people decided October would be the time to buy.

In late August we argued in If Everyone Knows the Date, the Market Already Moved It that a date this widely known was more likely to be front-run than fulfilled. Bitcoin had already absorbed four major shocks. Strategy was selling. The Coldcard exploit shook confidence in self-custody. The Iran conflict hit risk assets. Fear and Greed fell to single digits. Through all of that, Bitcoin never closed below $57,735.

The Market Didn’t Wait

Bitcoin now trades around $83,500. That is roughly 45% above that low. Q3 was its best quarter since late 2024.

Yet Bitcoin is still about a third below its all-time high.

So October arrived, but the October prices many people were waiting for did not.

The Question for Anyone Who Waited

If your plan was to buy in October because that was when the low was due, the premise of that plan has changed. You now have three options.

1. Deploy now. You accept that you missed the bottom and buy about 34% below the high.
2. Wait for a pullback. Bitcoin is sitting on major support. The longer you wait for lower prices, the greater the risk you wait for a price that never comes back.
3. Wait for confirmation higher. This is the most common choice. It usually means buying at a price you would have called expensive a month ago.

The hardest trade in markets is buying above a price you already passed on. Many people who didn’t buy at $60,000 will find $83,000 harder to accept, and $90,000 harder again. Be honest with yourself about which one you were waiting for: the date or the price.

The Lesson From Last October

The people hurt most last October were not the holders. They were the leveraged traders. Uptober has historically favoured spot holders, and it punished leverage badly a year ago.

That risk hasn’t gone away for leveraged traders. Volatility is still very real, and macro shocks can trigger short, sharp moves that wipe out leveraged positions in hours. Spot holders can’t be liquidated. They still feel the drawdown, but they aren’t forced out of the market. And when longs get flushed, it often creates the kind of dip spot buyers are waiting for.

October is here. The discount mostly wasn’t. The question now is what you do about it.

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Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,162)

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/Whc4F3UN/

The bears have stepped back in after a brief breather. PAXG lost nearly 1% yesterday and continued its move lower. It wasn’t a good session for most assets. The DXY and US10Y both pushed higher, with long-dated US Treasury yields reaching their highest level since 2002. Precious metals, traditional indices and Bitcoin all closed red.

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BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/V1ZGmmtX/

Bitcoin tried to break out of its consolidation at the key level, rallying over 3% in less than four hours late last night after a softer-than-expected US inflation print. The move was quickly reversed during the US session. Bitcoin is now back consolidating above the key $83k level.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

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Written by Alexandar Artis