You Travelled Through the Fire and the Flames, and Now We're Here.

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Today’s morning note is a tad longer than usual, but it’s a must read for anyone tracking Bitcoin price and the search for the cycle low. I’d urge you to stick around and read it in full.

For readers who’ve been with us for close to 12 months, you may recall the Morning Note welcoming everyone to the bear market. That call was based on key technical analysis that has historically signalled the start of past bear markets.

We may not be far from the point where that same analysis flips to confirm the bull market. Today we’re covering similar technical signals that have historically marked the end of a bear market, and for the first time in this cycle, the weight of evidence is stacking up in the bulls’ favour. The case is building fast, and it’s looking increasingly hard to bet against.

The Bear Market Trendline

There’s genuinely bullish price-action on the charts this week. Bitcoin has begun crossing the 2026 bear market trend line we’ve been tracking with clients for months - the descending line connecting every lower high since October’s peak. For the first time since this bear market began, Monday’s daily close popped through it, and yesterday’s close held above it too - now we just launched above it. Historically, that high volume cross has meant something specific: once a Bitcoin bear market trend line breaks, the bottom is already in, and price has never gone back below the recent lows.

The daily chart backs this up structurally as well as a textbook inverse head and shoulders has formed since June. Monday’s candle broke straight through the trend line and just blew past the neckline resistance ~ $65,000. On the shorter timeframe, price had been compressing inside a symmetrical triangle for weeks, and that Monday buying candle is exactly the kind of decisive move triangles like this eventually resolve with, which you’re now seeing today.

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/htzrqjaa/

The strong move higher from support here is the exact setup flagged in last Friday’s note titled “The Return Australian Housing Would Need to Match Bitcoin’s Next Cycle” we signalled that if we saw more chop sideways, then a sharp turn up, this potentially could be the sign that continued price appreciation with rising volatility were next to come, potentially seeing a move towards $70,000 and beyond - which we identified would likely happen quickly, because that’s what a Bitcoin cycle bottom has always looked like.

This morning we’ve all just woken up to this reality, Bitcoin just zipped up to a high of exactly $70,033, a whopping near +10% move overnight when measured from low to high in just 24 hours.

The market delivered precisely our signal. Price failed to lose $62,000 over the weekend despite sellers pushing for it, then Monday’s strong buying candle closing at $64,500 confirmed the shift. That failure to break lower, followed immediately by strong conviction buying, was the market’s own signal that this cycle’s leg to the downside is done.

Any pullback or sideways price-action to allow investors the ability to further accumulate before we see a breakout of $100,000 on the print over the coming six to twelve months is a gift - not a given. If that plays out, it would be an extremely strong entry, and it’s increasingly unlikely a sub-$60,000 print happens again this cycle now that the trend line has broken with force in favour of the bulls. Investors waiting for that level to come back should treat that window as closing, not opening.

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/Nt8Pvw0G/

History backs the framework too. The 2018 bear market trend line and the 2022 bear market trend line both marked the exact same pattern, once price closed back above that descending line, the low was already locked in for good. Some chop followed both crossings in the weeks after, but neither cycle ever revisited those lows again. The 2026 trend line just did the same thing this week.

Trend line breaks with massive buying force like this don’t happen often, in-fact it’s only once every four years. Bitcoin’s own history says they mean exactly what they look like, the bottom is behind us. Between the inverse head and shoulders setup, the symmetrical triangle compression, and last weekends failed breakdown followed by Monday’s reclaim and today’s follow through, the pieces are lining up the same way they did in 2018 and 2022. If you’ve been waiting on the sidelines for a lower entry, this is the moment to talk to your Stormrake broker about it, as that window may already be closing.

The Moving Average That Dictates The Bear Market

The key moving average that has determined the end of past bear markets is the 50 exponential moving average on the daily timeframe (the green line on the chart below).

A sustained break of the 50 EMA, supported by volume, has historically marked the point where the bear market ended. The moves that failed to hold shared two things in common. Either they lacked the volume to sustain the breakout, or they came too early in the cycle, before enough pain and drawdown had actually played out. A fakeout without volume, or a fakeout that hasn’t earned its stripes through a proper flush, has never been the real thing.

We’re now ten months on from Bitcoin’s all time high. In our Q3 Outlook we estimated a bottom was likely to form within this quarter, and it’s looking like close enough is good enough. This week we’ve finally seen the decisive move above the 50 EMA, and this time volume is supporting it rather than fading away like the earlier attempts did.

The same pattern has played out in every major cycle. In 2014/15, 2018/19, and 2022, the early breakout attempts above the 50 EMA lacked the volume to hold, and price rolled back over each time. It wasn’t until the break came with real volume behind it that the bottom was actually in and the next leg higher began.

Source: Stormrake Research

Historically, this exact combination, a sustained 50EMA break with volume behind it, has marked the bottom of the last three major cycles. We’re watching now for that same pattern to confirm and hold.

Watching, Not Waiting

This is an extremely important period to be paying attention to. Between the trend line break, the inverse head and shoulders, the failed breakdown below $62,000, and now the 50 EMA reclaiming with volume behind it, the signals are stacking up in a way we haven’t seen since the last two cycle bottoms. We’re not calling it just, but the pieces are lining up quickly.

If this move holds and confirms the way it has in 2018 and 2022, the article welcoming you to the bull market looks to be right around the corner.

However, as a buyer, sitting on your hands entirely is what tends to cause the most damage. History shows the moves off these lows happen quickly, and hesitating too long is usually what costs investors the upside once the bull run is confirmed.

For those who have been dollar cost averaging while waiting for lower prices, it’s worth remembering that DCA is a strategy built for uncertain or falling markets. It works against you once the market turns and starts moving higher. We’ve seen this pattern play out time and time again. Investors waiting for a lower entry end up missing a significant part of the move, or in some cases don’t get back in at all. If you’re still waiting for lower prices or currently dollar cost averaging, get in touch with your dedicated Stormrake broker as soon as possible to talk through your options.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis and James Ryan

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