Are You Bored Yet?

Yesterday we noted that it has now been one month since Bitcoin sustained its break above $80k and went on to print a nine-month high just above $87k. Since then, price has done very little. We have seen fake breakouts to the upside, attempts to push back below $80k, and plenty of noise in between. Nothing has stuck.

For many, this is the frustrating part. For those who have been around a while, it is the familiar part.

The Volatility Myth

Bitcoin carries a reputation as one of the most volatile assets in the world. That reputation is earned, but it is also misunderstood. Bitcoin’s volatility does not arrive evenly. It comes in short, sharp bursts, both up and down, separated by long stretches of nothing much at all.

In reality, Bitcoin spends most of its life trading sideways. These consolidation periods are dull by design. They wear down the impatient, shake out those chasing quick gains, and lull everyone else to sleep. Then, usually when interest has faded, the next move comes.

We have seen this play out many times. Through much of 2024, Bitcoin chopped between roughly $56k and $73k for around seven months, aside from a brief flush lower in August. Headlines dried up, sentiment soured and many declared the move over. When the range finally broke, Bitcoin cleared six figures within a month.

Boredom Is the Opportunity

If you are checking the charts every day expecting something new, consolidation is painful. Each day looks like the last. But experienced participants tend to see these periods differently. A range is time. And time is what allows those with conviction to build a position without having to chase.

There is also a widely observed tendency in markets: the longer a consolidation runs, the more forceful the move tends to be once it resolves. Energy builds while price goes nowhere. It is a tendency rather than a rule, and a range can break in either direction, but it is one reason we view this period as constructive rather than concerning. In our view, the bear market is behind us, and this looks more like a pause than a top.

Why Mindset Matters

Many people feel caught out right now. They watched Bitcoin rally as much as 50% from its June low and feel they missed the boat. They could have bought lower, and now it feels too late.

Yet there is another group worth remembering. Plenty of investors bought Bitcoin at six figures. For them, today’s price is not a rally. It is still a loss.

Both views are true at the same time. It simply depends on the window you choose. Look at the last four months and Bitcoin is the asset up 43% from its low. Look at the last 12 months and it is the asset still sitting 34% below its all-time high. One frame says you missed the low. The other says you are early, and buying at a meaningful discount.

Neither frame is wrong. But only one of them tends to lead to rushed, emotional decisions.

The Takeaway

Quiet markets test patience more than any crash or rally. The urge to do something, anything, is strongest when nothing is happening. Those who understand that sideways is Bitcoin’s natural state are far better placed than those waiting for every day to bring fireworks.

At the end of the day, everyone gets Bitcoin at the price they deserve.

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Stormrake Spotlight: Zcash (ZEC) ($1,271)

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/wMWeKWyo/

ZEC is up more than 10% in the last 24 hours as the bulls look to build on their momentum. Price has reclaimed both moving averages and is now pushing towards the trend reversal level we identified at $1,385. A sustained reclaim of that level would open the door to a run at new highs.

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BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/7azmPA8D/

The consolidation range remains firm. Yesterday it looked as though the bears would retest the bottom of the range, until the US session opened and triggered a strong intraday reversal back to the top. BTC is once again sitting at $83k, right at resistance. Time will tell whether the bulls have the strength to break through this time.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

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Written by Alexandar Artis