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The Forecast, the Bid and the Wrapper.

· Bitcoin Deep Dive · Stormrake

  • BTC
  • ZEC

Western showdown in the desert with a Bitcoin coin in a cowboy hat and green poncho at the centre, flanked by a startled bull and a scowling bear, both holding revolvers

Three gunslingers rode into town this week, and none of them are leaving.

Three developments reached the Bitcoin market within 48 hours, and they point the same way. The largest US bank put a number on Bitcoin’s next decade, the largest Bitcoin ETF took in its biggest day in a year while price slipped, and the world’s largest asset manager filed for a new product aimed at the next wave of buyers. Institutions are building for a bigger Bitcoin.

The Forecast: JPMorgan’s 10%

On 20 October, J.P. Morgan Asset Management released its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions. For the first time, Bitcoin is seriously on the table. The base case is a 10% compound annual return over the next 10 to 15 years, with a bull case of 17%.

That 10% tops a table of more than 200 asset classes, ahead of private equity at 9.8%, US large-cap equities at 7.5% and gold at 5.5%. It comes from a bank whose chief executive has long been one of Bitcoin’s best-known sceptics.

For context, 10% compounded conservatively for ten years takes a Bitcoin price of around $81,500 to roughly $210,000. Our targeted zone of $180,000 to $200,000 by September 2029 reaches the same region in under three years.

The Bid: IBIT’s $665 Million Day

On Monday 19 October, US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $526.6 million, their biggest day since 22 September. BlackRock’s IBIT supplied all of it, drawing $665.2 million, its largest single day since October 2025. Fidelity’s FBTC and Grayscale’s GBTC each saw outflows, and the remaining funds recorded no net flow.

The timing matters. The buying arrived as Bitcoin slid towards $81,500, and after two weeks in which the funds had shed about $910 million, including $484.9 million on 7 October. One session trimmed October’s net deficit to around $90 million. Bitcoin closed last week down 2% while the Nasdaq fell 5%, and the largest buyer chose a weak tape to add.

The funds now hold $105.5 billion in assets, with $57.4 billion of cumulative net inflows since launch in January 2024. IBIT alone holds more than $66 billion. Glassnode puts the average ETF entry price at about $81,500, and says a daily close above $88,000 alongside renewed inflows would signal buyers absorbing that supply.

The Wrapper: BlackRock’s PBIT

On the same day, BlackRock filed for the iShares Bitcoin Managed Protection ETF, ticker PBIT. It is the manager’s third Bitcoin ETF filing, after IBIT and the iShares Bitcoin Premium Income ETF. The fund seeks upside exposure to IBIT up to an approximate limit, paired with a level of downside protection, using options and fixed income. If it proceeds, the filing points to an effective date around early January 2027.

The product tells us who BlackRock is targeting. Cautious capital that has watched Bitcoin from the sidelines now has a route that limits the drawdown, and the buyer accepts a cap on gains to get it. That is a new door for investors who passed on raw spot exposure, and it opens at a price near $81,500.

For long-term holders the maths is straightforward. A protected wrapper gives up the upper part of the move, and the upper part is where our target sits. Spot keeps the full upside.

What It Adds Up To

A forecast from the largest bank, a record IBIT day from the largest fund, and a new product from the largest manager all arrived in the same 48 hours, with price going sideways the last few weeks, followed by strong rally today. That is what early expansion looks like. The infrastructure and the institutional appetite come first, and the price follows once the buyers who need a product arrive.

Stormrake Spotlight: Zcash (ZEC) ($1,354)

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/PDgJ9W28/

Zcash (ZEC) has come back up quickly, following in tandem with Bitcoin’s rally today, seeing ZEC get close to the trend reversal level of $1,385, currently up 7.54% for the day. If Bulls can maintain momentum, then further continuation above the reversal level may come if BTC dominance also remains strong here. A continuation lower, below the current support of $1,062 would be if this rally makes a lower high, and momentum were to fade quickly again in the coming days / weeks ahead. For now we look to confirmation of either direction.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/HoFf56kL/

Over the last week, Bitcoin has held our aforementioned neckline support at ~$81K with strong conviction. Bulls have come in this morning and brought a 2.20% rally with excellent buying volume too. As we mentioned this week in prior Morning Notes “Over analysis = paralysis”. This type of price-action today is an embodiment of the idea, in all it’s glory. Trend is up, bears are failing to get breakdowns. The answer has been clear for two months already and is only is getting clearer. Bitcoin is bullish, and it’s about to take no prisoners.

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by James Ryan