Fakeouts on Breakouts and Letdowns with Breakdowns

Two days ago Bitcoin pushed to $84,900, just shy of $85,000. This morning it is pressing back towards $81,000.

That is the market we are in right now. Breakouts are not holding, and breakdowns are not following through either. Every move gets faded. It is frustrating for anyone trading the range, and that is precisely the point.

Risk Off Across the Board

Overnight was not a crypto story. It was a macro story, and Bitcoin was caught in it.

The Nasdaq 100 closed down 2.9%, its biggest daily drop since 5 June, erasing nearly $1.2 trillion in market cap. The trigger was earnings. Investors digested results from Meta and Tesla, with concerns about the enormous costs of AI infrastructure once again weighing on tech. Meta fell close to 7% despite beating estimates.

Oil is back higher. Crude jumped on reports of new planned US-Israel strikes on Iran, with Brent reaching its highest level since May.

Commodities are continuing their bear market. Gold fell 2%, and silver led the decline across all markets, down nearly 6%.

The one asset that caught a bid was bonds. The US 10-year yield dropped more than 17 basis points to close at 4.97%, its lowest level in nearly a month. When stocks, metals and crypto all fall together and money runs to Treasuries, that is a market reaching for safety, not rotating.

What This Means for Bitcoin

Context matters here. Silver fell 6%. The Nasdaq fell 2.9%. Bitcoin is roughly 4.5% off its high from two days ago. In a broad risk-off session, Bitcoin is not the weakest link.

That does not make it immune. The level it is now testing carries weight. The average purchase price of US spot ETF holders sits near $81,500. That is the line between the average ETF buyer sitting in profit or under water. Holding above it keeps that cohort comfortable. Losing it is where patience gets tested.

Expect volatility to pick up from here. The weekend brings the risk of further escalation in the Middle East, and crypto is the only major market open to price it in real time. Thin weekend liquidity means headlines can move price further than they otherwise would.

Then comes the Fed. The FOMC meets 27 to 28 October, with the decision on 28 October. CME Group’s FedWatch currently puts the odds of no change at 93%. A hold is largely priced in, so the bigger question is the tone. With oil climbing again, any hint that inflation is back on the Fed’s radar will be felt across risk assets.

The real danger is the 7% scenario. A shock rate rise is not what the market is positioned for. If it comes, the bears would likely have the momentum to break through the bottom of the range, putting $80,000 under serious pressure.

So, will this be the catalyst that finally breaks the range? A weekend of geopolitical headlines followed by a Fed decision is about as strong a setup for a decisive move as this market has had in weeks. Which way it breaks is still an open question.

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Stormrake Spotlight: Zcash (ZEC) ($1,209)

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/C7TRObD2/

ZEC has retraced with the rest of the broader investment space, falling 8% over the last 24 hours. The day prior, it fell just shy of the bullish reclaim level at $1,385. It now sits back on the moving averages, which should act as support. Ideally ZEC holds above the recent low. If it doesn’t, that would confirm a bearish structure, the first occurrence of this in a long time…

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BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/q7Wz31EM/

As mentioned above, Bitcoin is back at the spot ETF average entry price after falling over 3% in 24 hours. The bears have reclaimed short-term momentum, but until the broader range of the last month between $80k and $87k is broken, it remains in higher time frame consolidation…

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

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Written by Alexandar Artis