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After a weekend of strikes and escalating tension, the US is now directly involved in the Israel-Iran conflict. But this morning, we wake up to US President Trump announcing a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, dubbing the standoff the ‘12 Day War’. The ceasefire is expected to take effect within the next 24 hours.
While Iran did launch missiles at a US base in Qatar prior to the announcement, no injuries were reported and only one of the nineteen missiles actually hit the base.
Despite initial claims that the ceasefire was fake, a senior Iranian official has confirmed the agreement, mediated by Qatar, is legitimate and in place.
In hindsight, the market’s hesitation last week was spot on. This brief period of conflict didn’t lead to a broader breakdown, and while gold and oil rallied, they didn’t break out far enough to suggest a prolonged war was on the cards. Meanwhile, Bitcoin, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq all saw relatively shallow pullbacks considering the geopolitical weight.
Risk-on sentiment is back in full force. Traditional indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have essentially regained all ground lost over the past couple of weeks, and the crypto market is even greener.
