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We’ve just wrapped up March and, to many people’s surprise, it looks to have snapped the consecutive bearish streak that had been building and was close to tying the record for Bitcoin’s longest run of red months. That holds as long as Bitcoin remains above $67k by 11am today.
Five red months were still brutal, with Bitcoin retracing around 50% during that period, but we may now be seeing early signs that the bears’ time in control is coming to an end.
Now we enter April, which is historically Bitcoin’s second best performing month, delivering an average return of 33.4%. The timing could not be more interesting. While there is no denying Bitcoin has been in a bear market, March was actually a strong month from a fundamental perspective, even if price only moved up around 1% to 2%.
Smart money quietly returned throughout March. We saw positive spot Bitcoin ETF inflows for the first time in months, alongside an increase in long term holder supply and a continued decline in exchange reserves. These are classic signals of accumulation and suggest stronger hands are stepping back in.
Looking at previous cycles, this is typically when smart money begins to position itself, either towards the end of a bear market or at the early stages of a new cycle, when prices are heavily discounted and sentiment is weak. This is not a call that the bottom is definitively in or that a bull run is about to begin, but it does highlight an important shift.
If larger players are accumulating at these levels and price has not yet reacted significantly, it raises the question of whether this is the kind of environment everyday investors often miss.
Time and time again, retail participants wait for lower prices while smart money accumulates. More often than not, they end up getting caught offside, buying at higher levels and looking back wishing they had acted when sentiment was at its worst.
It is also worth noting that historically, once Bitcoin’s extended bearish monthly streaks of five or more months have come to an end, the market has already formed its bottom. Of course, past performance is not a guarantee of future results, but it is a data point that should not be ignored.
Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,658)
Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,658)
