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May has kicked off with strength, finally breaking out of the eight-day consolidation range. Bitcoin is up 2.5%, trading above $97K for the first time since late February, and now closing in on the key psychological level of $100K.
There are plenty of investing adages, and one from traditional finance that often resurfaces in crypto is: “Sell in May and go away.” But does it really hold weight for Bitcoin?
Since 2011, we’ve seen 14 Mays. Six were red; eight were green — that’s 57% of Mays closing positive. The average return? +20%. The median? +6.21%. However, three of the past four Mays have been negative, with an average return of –11.83%.
Looking closer — when April is positive, May tends to follow. Only three Mays have been red following a green April since 2011, giving us a 79% probability of May being positive under those conditions.
Not only did April close in the green, but it also flipped Bitcoin’s structure back to bullish. From January through March, the trend was bearish — marked by lower highs and lower lows. April briefly set a new lower low at $74.5K, but Bitcoin has since rallied to $97K, posting a higher high and establishing a clear higher low.
With historical data and current structure aligned, May appears poised for further upside. The old adage “sell in May and go away” may not apply this time — perhaps it’s actually time to accumulate more Bitcoin and altcoins instead. Bitcoin is on the verge of reclaiming $100K, and once that level breaks, momentum could carry it much higher. Altcoins will likely follow. We’ve already seen some of our favourite names rally in recent weeks. This isn’t the time to be on the sidelines — it’s a time to consider further allocation and stay positioned for the move.
Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.22)
Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.22)
XRP bounced cleanly from the 21EMA, forming another higher low at $2.12. With Bitcoin showing strong momentum, XRP is likely to continue its move upward, targeting the green CPR level at $2.49 in the coming weeks. The structure remains bullish, and momentum is gradually swinging further in favour of the bulls.
BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:
BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:
Bitcoin has broken above the top of its consolidation range at $95.7K. With the 21EMA and 55EMA providing strong support, that previous resistance now acts as support. Price action suggests a likely retest of the $100K mark over the next week or so.
BTC Total ETF Flows for 1 May: $ +71.1 million
(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*
Written by Alexandar Artis
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