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The weekend delivered a slow bleed for Bitcoin, which retraced 3.4% from its $97.5K high posted early Saturday. Now trading at $94.5K and back within its established range, we’re heading into a week where volatility is expected to surge.
JUST IN: Trump has declared he has no intention of speaking with President Xi about tariffs, accusing China of “ripping us off” and claiming that US and Chinese officials are “talking about different things.” As a result, Bitcoin dropped over 1.5% in the past two hours, while S&P500 futures also fell—reinforcing that markets remain highly reactive to Trump headlines.
Macro Focus: FOMC & Tariff Tension
The third interest rate decision of the year is on deck. Ahead of Trump’s second term, many expected May to mark the beginning of a rate-cutting cycle. However, the chaotic start to 2025 has put those expectations on pause.
Tariff developments have created economic uncertainty and stoked inflation fears, pushing rate cut odds lower. Trump continues to demand lower rates, but Powell has stayed resolute—guided solely by economic data. Markets are now pricing a 96.8% probability of no cut this week. Attention shifts to mid-June (still skewed toward no cut), while July is currently seen as the first realistic window for easing.
With that in mind, this week’s decision may already be priced in. What matters more will be Powell’s press conference. He will undoubtedly face questions on the tariff pause and its implications for inflation and policy. A dovish tone (hopeful/optimistic) could trigger a relief rally. Conversely, if Powell remains hawkish (cautious/bearish), risk assets are likely to continue lower.
The presser could be the catalyst that breaks us out of the recent consolidation.
Stormrake Spotlight: Bittensor (TAO) ($345)
Stormrake Spotlight: Bittensor (TAO) ($345)
As requested, Bittensor takes the spotlight. TAO has surged over 100% from its lows in the past month, flipping long-term momentum back in favor of the bulls. Price has decisively broken previous highs and entered a new uptrend by forming a higher high.
For structural confirmation, TAO needs to establish a higher low. This will be validated once it sets a low above the recent $222 mark. A pullback to form this higher low is expected and would be healthy. There are three key support levels to watch:
- Level 1: 21EMA and CPR support
- Level 2: 0.5 Fibonacci & 55EMA support
- Level 3: 0.618 Fib & CPR confluence
A bounce from any of these would confirm continuation of the bullish structure.
BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:
BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:
Bitcoin has lost the key support zone and slipped below all major moving averages. Short-term momentum now favors the bears, though the broader structure still leans bullish—as long as $92.9K holds.
A break below $92.9K would flip the structure and likely send BTC to retest $90K.
BTC Total ETF Flows for 4 May: $ (data not available at the time of writing)
(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*
Written by Alexandar Artis
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