Bitcoin and the Hidden Forces Behind Its Manipulation

15 Jan 2026 02:05 PM By Stormrake

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Yesterday, we covered how silver was manipulated for over a decade following JP Morgan’s acquisition of Bear Stearns’ books and short positions during the Global Financial Crisis.

Now, attention turns to Bitcoin.

Since the October 10 capitulation, Bitcoin has been a major underperformer, diverging sharply from other risk assets. While equities and commodities push to all-time highs, Bitcoin remains down over 20% from its all time high. This underperformance has triggered questions about whether price suppression is in play, and whether we’re seeing echoes of what happened in the silver market.

We know that several market makers were hit hard in October, left with significant holes in their balance sheets. To stabilise, those that survived shifted their priorities from providing liquidity to preserving capital.

In the aftermath of the crash, we saw clear structural shifts in market behaviour. Quote sizes shrank, spreads widened, and risk appetite dropped. More notably, assets were offloaded not in a panic but through deliberate and systematic selling. The goal was to reduce exposure, rebuild capital buffers, and stay within internal risk limits.

There’s also been consistent chatter that not all market makers survived the event. Some are rumoured to have been absorbed or backstopped by larger players or exchanges. While specific deals are rarely public, the pattern fits with previous periods of stress.

A useful comparison is the Bear Stearns collapse. When JP Morgan took over, they didn’t just acquire the company, they inherited its positions. Those didn’t disappear; they had to be managed and gradually unwound, which led to over a decade of silver price manipulation.

If failed market makers were absorbed by exchanges or larger funds in October, the same logic applies. The distressed inventory doesn’t vanish. It eventually has to be redistributed into the market. When that happens in a low-liquidity, low-risk appetite environment, it can lead to sustained, flow-driven selling that suppresses prices even without any formal coordination.

That’s exactly what we’ve seen in recent months.

Bitcoin and altcoins struggled to sustain any rallies. Each attempt was met with aggressive selling, driving prices lower, classic signs of a seller-dominated market. It’s visible in the charts: rallies faded quickly, and momentum consistently failed to follow through.

Alongside the systematic selling, there have also been persistent rumours of coordinated sell pressure at the start of the US trading sessions. The chart above highlights this clearly. Each white vertical line marks the US market open, where this activity is believed to have occurred. Since October 10, there have been 20 trading days where Bitcoin sold off an average of 1.58% within the first four hours of the session. This pattern was especially pronounced in late October and throughout November.

While no fund or exchange has publicly confirmed their involvement, the consistency and scale of the pattern lend credibility to the theory. A 1.58% average drawdown at the open is significant, especially in a market that was consolidating in a narrow range between $88k - $94k.

However, this period of pressure may now be over.

Bitcoin is up over 20% from the November lows and has been grinding higher for nearly two months. It’s worth noting that Bitcoin took a similar two-month period to stabilise after the FTX collapse before staging a full recovery.

We’re now in the midst of the strongest breakout since September, with bulls back in control and eyeing a move above $100K. While this doesn’t confirm the return of the broader bull run, it’s a strong signal that the October-driven price suppression has faded.

If history rhymes, as it often does in crypto, Bitcoin may have already emerged from a phase of price suppression, just as silver did, and is now entering the early stages of its next major leg higher.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,588)

As expected, PAXG pushed higher after yesterday’s pullback, fully engulfing it and now looks set to close at another record high. Its all-time high wick sits at $4,790, just 3.25% away, with this strength, that level could be broken next week.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin is looking strong, with bulls back in control on the short-term. Momentum and structure are firmly bullish, signalling a sustained breakout. All signs point to a potential retest of the key $100K level. Breaking through it won’t be easy, and even if it does, it won’t necessarily mean the higher time-frame structure is fully bullish yet. Cautious optimism is the right approach in the current BTC setup.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 14 Jan: (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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