Ceasefire Progress Builds as Panic Sellers Continue to Get Shaken Out

19.08.25 03:30 AM By Stormrake

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/
Yesterday was another day where panic sellers suffered while smart money benefitted. It was a volatile session that ended in liquidations for over-leveraged positions. Bitcoin broke below the support level that had held through the weekend and quickly moved lower, shifting sentiment as it dropped under $115K (falling nearly 2.5% at its lowest point during the day). Altcoins followed suit, suffering even more. Over $500 million in leveraged positions were wiped out, with more than 80% being longs.

The X timeline fell apart. Sentiment flipped from calls for $150K–$200K to bear market predictions in just a few days. Yesterday, every second person was calling the top, saying the bear market had begun, or comparing the move to 2021. For those unfamiliar, that cycle saw Bitcoin set a marginal new all-time high just weeks after the previous one, before rolling over into a long bear market. Less than a week ago, the fear and greed index was at 75, in extreme greed. Following the pullback, the latest reading has dropped to 56. It's still in greed territory but is quickly approaching neutral.

Sentiment and social media can shift very quickly. This is why staying grounded in your conviction and tuning out the noise is so important when investing.

Waking up this morning, Bitcoin is back above $116.5K and up nearly 2% from the intraday low. Ethereum has bounced nearly 3% from its low. The standout performer remains Chainlink (LINK), which is still green on the day and continues its outperformance since the start of the month.

In macro, Zelensky and other European leaders concluded their meeting with Trump at the White House this morning, with more signs of progress emerging around ceasefire negotiations in Eastern Europe. Ukraine has reportedly proposed a $100 billion US weapons purchase in a bid to secure security guarantees from Trump. Putin, meanwhile, has continued to demand recognition of the Donbas region in exchange for a ceasefire. Zelensky has held his ground, saying “it would be impossible” to give up territory to Russia.

However, after the White House meeting and a 40-minute phone call between Trump and Putin, it has been reported that Putin has agreed to a trilateral meeting with Trump and Zelensky within the next two weeks.

These developments are encouraging. We can likely expect headlines on this front to pause until that meeting takes place, allowing markets to refocus on broader momentum, at least until Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, scheduled for midnight on Friday.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hedera (HBAR) ($0.246)

HBAR followed the broader market with a red daily candle but has shown some overnight strength. After falling nearly 5.5% intraday, it has recovered more than 3% and continues to consolidate.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

As noted above, Bitcoin broke below key support, dropping to an intraday low of $114.6K. It has since bounced back above the 21EMA and is now retesting resistance at $116.8K, which was previously support. Bears are still in control, but if bulls can reclaim this level, momentum may shift back in their favour.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 18 Aug: + 12.7 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved

Stormrake