To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/
We’ve discussed timing of bear markets before, and we remain just a couple of months out from what we estimate to be the end of this one. But what about price? The current cycle low sits at $57,800, a 54% drawdown from the October all-time high near $126,000. We’re sure many of you who were around for the previous bear have felt it’s been eerily similar.
The saying goes: history doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes. That’s exactly what we’re seeing again.
Line this cycle up against 2021-22 and the resemblance is hard to ignore. Same shape, same rough proportions of euphoria and grind, but each time round the mirror is a little less brutal. 2021-22 saw Bitcoin fall from just under $69,000 to $15,500, a 77% peak to trough drawdown. This cycle’s 54% drawdown is shallower again, and shallower still than 2018’s 84% collapse. Each bear market has done less damage than the one before it.
