Post-Conflict Price Behaviour
Day 0:
2022: Oil ~$92 | BTC ~$38.3K | Drawdown from ATH -44.5%
2026: Oil ~$73 | BTC ~$60.2K | Drawdown from ATH -52%
30 Days
2022: Oil ~$114 | BTC ~$44K | Drawdown from ATH -36%
2026: Oil ~$109 | BTC ~$66.7K | Drawdown from ATH -47%
~40 Days
2022: Oil ~$101.9 | BTC ~$45.5K | Drawdown from ATH -34%
2026: Oil ~$115.2 | BTC ~$71.3K | Drawdown from ATH -43%
60 Days
2022: Oil ~$102 | BTC ~$39.5K | Drawdown from ATH -42%
2026: Not yet reached
90 Days
2022: Oil ~$110 | BTC ~$29K | Drawdown from ATH -58%
2026: Not yet reached
*current as of today
The key divergence sits in both oil dynamics and Bitcoin’s response.
At the same point in the cycle, the contrast is clear.
In 2022, Bitcoin was trading near local highs with sentiment already in greed, despite macro conditions deteriorating. That strength was short-lived and ultimately rolled over into further downside.
In 2026, the opposite is happening. Oil has moved more aggressively, Bitcoin remains in a deeper drawdown, and sentiment is at extreme fear, yet price is recovering.
Despite worse sentiment and a more severe energy shock, Bitcoin is not breaking down.
Instead, it is holding structure and beginning to move higher, suggesting that supply is being absorbed rather than forced out. The Fear & Greed Index remaining near historic lows while price rises only reinforces that dynamic.
This creates a clear contrast.
In 2022, fear and relief cycles led to distribution and eventual breakdown.
In 2026, fear is being absorbed while price stabilises and trends higher.
That shift suggests accumulation rather than capitulation.
The takeaway is not that history will repeat exactly, but that the structure around opportunity looks very familiar.
If you were accumulating during 2022, particularly as the conflict escalated and sentiment deteriorated, you were positioning into one of the most asymmetric periods in the cycle. The following year rewarded that heavily.
The same conditions are beginning to form again.
Periods of deep drawdown, extreme fear, and macro uncertainty have consistently been where the strongest long term positions are built. They are uncomfortable, sentiment is weak, and conviction is tested, but that is exactly where the opportunity tends to sit.
This time, there is an added signal. Bitcoin is not just cheap relative to its highs, it is showing resilience during one of the most stressed macro environments in recent years.
It is not waiting for conditions to improve. It is starting to move despite them.
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