Bitcoin's Big Week with Big Moves Ahead

15.09.25 03:25 AM By Jiuyu

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

Bitcoin is holding steady here in anticipation for the FED meeting later this week, sitting comfortably at $115K within it’s new-found support range. Gold also remains resilient despite the minor sell-off this morning currently sitting at $3,633 at time of writing. Silver, whilst currently sitting at $42.16 also remains steady after last week’s push higher into this price range. Markets are taking some profits here at the start of the week considering last weeks substantial push higher which is to be expected. Healthy ranging of price in the lead up to the FED’s policy meeting later this week is likely to continue.


U.S. Indices have started consolidating sideways in a similar fashion. The S&P 500 after pushing higher early this morning to 6,601 has now eased off slightly, slipping back to 6,584. The sideways move is being viewed as constructive ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting later this week, with short-term profit-taking offset by steady buying interest. The Nasdaq doing the same thing, pushing somewhat higher to 24,141to mark another all-time high and then back down to 24,091 currently. In Crypto; Bitcoin and Ethereum also traded sideways, with consolidation seen as a healthy setup after recent gains, as traders await clarity from the Fed’s policy meeting come early Thursday morning our time.


Markets are now pricing in a > 96% probability of a Fed rate cut at this week’s meeting, with expectations still centering on a 25-basis-point reduction. Such a shift would mark a clear policy pivot, lowering borrowing costs and injecting fresh liquidity into the financial system. For equities, this would likely reinforce the risk-on rotation already underway, while in crypto, looser financial conditions historically provide a tailwind for Bitcoin and altcoins. Precious metals like gold and silver may also benefit as investors hedge against the longer-term inflationary effects of easier policy.


Bitcoin now comfortably sitting in a range that’s higher than the range of previous weeks gives further credence that it’s setting up for a big move on the Fed news, along with the rest of Risk-on assets. The broader altcoin market has shown increasing strength over the past several sessions, with capital rotating out of Bitcoin into higher-beta tokens. While BTC has largely consolidated, major altcoins such as Ethereum, Solana, and XRP have posted steady gains, alongside notable rallies in mid-cap names. This shift highlights a pick-up in risk appetite, as traders look beyond Bitcoin for higher returns, a pattern often seen in the early phases of broader crypto uptrends. The outperformance of altcoins relative to BTC suggests investors are becoming more willing to rotate into higher-volatility assets; is a dynamic typically seen in the later stages of a bull market.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hedera (HBAR) ($0.239)

HBAR has now sold-off at our local trend resistance of $0.245. Despite the temporary wick and trading above this level, it’s clear a smaller pullback into what’ll likely be a Higher Low is the play for the coming days ahead. If HBAR can healthily come into our support zone ~ $0.23 and then rally along with the rest of the market, that would be an excellent setup for a sustained move in the coming weeks ahead.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin continues to hold trend within a new-found range of support between $112.6K and $116.1K. Despite a temporary push through this level three days ago, the healthy profit-taking on the way up meant this move couldn’t be sustained in the very short-term. Trend is still up, however a pullback to the daily level at $112.6K also wouldn’t entirely be out of the question if we lost the temporary support we’re currently sitting on at $114.7K. Lets see what setup the market volatility gives us in the days ahead. In brief periods such this, waiting and seeing how the markets ebbs and flows around a significant macro-event becomes an extremely viable strategy once again.





BTC Total ETF Flows for 12 Sep: $ 642.4 million


(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by James Ryan

Create a brokerage account today

No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved

Jiuyu