Has the Bear Market Begun?

18.11.25 03:24 AM By Stormrake

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It was a tall order for the bulls over the weekend, but they could not stop the bears from confirming a classic bear market signal.

We have mentioned it a few times before. The weekly Bitcoin exponential moving averages, particularly the 55EMA, continue to play a major role in shaping market structure. Last week, we pointed out a bounce from this level and highlighted its importance. In Saturday’s morning note, we said Bitcoin had fallen below it and needed to reclaim $99,000. It was a major test that the bulls ultimately failed.

Bitcoin has now closed below the 55EMA on the weekly chart for the first time since September 2023, when the market was beginning to recover from the previous bear cycle. The last time this happened while still in a bullish posture, meaning the 21EMA remained above the 55EMA, was in April 2022. That breakdown preceded a larger decline that eventually took Bitcoin to $15,000 later that year.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/JxJwcsI3/

We now anticipate a longer corrective period. Historically, a weekly close below the 55EMA during a bull market posture has signalled the beginning of a deeper bear phase. Previous cycles have seen further drawdowns of around 60% from that point, lasting five to eight months. If a similar move occurred from current levels, Bitcoin would fall below $40,000. But remember, past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bitcoin has also returned to its yearly open, which adds to the uncertainty. For 2025, the path ahead could now go in either direction. Few would have expected such a sharp retest. We anticipate a move below $90,000, with the possibility of revisiting April’s lows in the low $70,000 region. These types of corrections have historically been opportunities to accumulate Bitcoin at discounted prices. The long term outlook remains unchanged, and the bullish narrative for Bitcoin is still intact.

However, as mentioned on Saturday, there is also a contrary signal that suggests the bottom could arrive sooner than expected. A death cross has just formed, which we will break down in tomorrow’s morning note. The name sounds ominous, but not all death crosses lead to extended downside. Some have actually marked reversal points. Stay tuned.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hyperliquid (HYPE) ($34.49)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/ux6RjDyg/

HYPE produced a flat session yesterday. Both bulls and bears attempted to take control, but the market closed right at the opening price. Bulls were once again capped by the 21EMA resistance, a recurring ceiling throughout the month. However, bears are still failing to generate strong downside momentum, which is a subtle positive for the bullish case.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/iPCNLUid/

It was a weekend of resistance for the bulls, who struggled with the 21EMA and could not push higher. The bears have stepped back in with renewed strength and dragged Bitcoin back to the yearly open at $93,500. This level is not expected to hold. We now anticipate a revisit of the next key support level at $88,888.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 16 Oct: (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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Has the Bear Market Begun?

Stormrake Spotlight: Hyperliquid (HYPE) ($34.49)

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

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