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As anticipated, there was no rate hike overnight. Powell delivered his presser, yet markets remained steady and largely neutral. It may as well have been a non-event. Slightly hawkish, Powell remained conservative in his tone, with the core message centred around patience and a ‘wait and see’ approach.
The main takeaways from today’s decision and Powell’s presser are as follows:
Powell’s messaging offered little new, instead reinforcing a cautious stance that underscores the Fed’s current predicament. While the US economy remains healthy on the surface, he highlighted rising risks of both higher unemployment and inflation, even though these have yet to materialise in the data. The looming threat of tariffs—particularly tied to Trump’s trade manoeuvres—was a consistent theme, with Powell making it clear that external policy shocks could sharply alter the Fed’s path. Uncertainty dominates the outlook, and ‘wait and see’ has emerged as the defining narrative. Flexibility will be key, especially with stagflation risks beginning to simmer.
The next rate decision lands on 18 June, and markets are currently pricing in an 80% probability of no rate cut once again. Attention is shifting to the 30 July meeting, where expectations for a rate cut are growing. As of now, there’s only a 30.4% chance that the Fed holds steady again.
Bitcoin Update:
Bitcoin remained resilient overnight, holding its bullish structure and momentum, now sitting above $98K and closing in on the $100K milestone. Yet sentiment remains surprisingly cautious, with most retail still on the sidelines. It’s a stark contrast to the last time Bitcoin was here—euphoria dominated, retail was flooding in. But this time, Trump’s tariff drama has dampened broader investor sentiment. Bitcoin, however, doesn’t seem fazed. Just over 10% away from its all-time high, it’s only a matter of time before retail wakes up to Bitcoin’s strength—by then, it may already be printing new highs. Don’t sit on your hands. Get allocated.
Stormrake Spotlight: Bittensor (TAO) ($377)
Stormrake Spotlight: Bittensor (TAO) ($377)
TAO is holding steady, trading around the same levels noted in yesterday’s morning note. In the past 24 hours, it retested the top of its consolidation range at $390 but failed to break above it, reinforcing that zone as a strong resistance. Still, TAO remains bullish and continues to coil beneath resistance. With strong bullish momentum across the crypto space, it should only be a matter of time before TAO breaks out and moves higher.
BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:
BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:
Bitcoin sits right at $98K, continuing its steady march toward $100K. The 21EMA has acted as reliable support on pullbacks, confirming that bulls remain in control. BTC is currently testing a resistance band between $98K–$99K, an area with considerable sell pressure. However, given the strength of momentum, bulls are likely to push through and send price into six figures.
BTC Total ETF Flows for 7 May: $ + 105.1 million
(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*
Written by Alexandar Artis
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