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We’re calling it, the bear market is over.
Now this doesn’t mean you’ve missed the opportunity to buy Bitcoin. We urged readers to unload the clips when Bitcoin was sub $60k, heck even below $70k. Even if you haven’t bought yet, it isn’t the end, nor have you missed the boat. But it’s worth being honest about where we are in the cycle: the longer you wait from here, the more of the move you give up.
Estimates have Bitcoin’s next bull market target around $200k, a level many had pencilled in for the last cycle but which fell well short. With Bitcoin currently sitting sub $80k, there’s still substantial room left on the table. A reclaim of the prior all-time high near $126k represents a return of roughly 64% from here. Push through to our $200k bull target and you’re looking at a return closer to 160% from current levels. Two different milestones, two very different numbers, and both still ahead of us, for now.
Bear Market Invalidation
If you read our Q3 Outlook, you’ll know we flagged a close above $83k as our formal bear market invalidation trigger. We’re calling it ahead of that print, and here’s why we’re comfortable doing so.
Last week we laid out the technical case in “You Travelled Through the Fire and the Flames, and Now We’re Here,” and the signals we flagged there haven’t just held, they’ve confirmed. The 2026 bear market trend line, the descending line connecting every lower high since October’s peak, has been broken with a high volume close, and price has held above it since. Historically, once that line breaks with volume behind it, the bottom is already in, and price has never revisited those lows. That’s exactly the pattern we saw in 2022, and the structural pattern on the chart is tracking eerily close to that bottom, with price action no longer making the lower lows that defined the bear phase.
The parallels are hard to ignore. Both cycles show the same shape into the low: a sharp capitulation leg, a failed breakdown attempt, then a reclaim through the level that had been capping price for weeks. In 2022 that reclaim held and never looked back. The setup into this bullish level around $83k is tracking the same way.
The structure backs it up too. A textbook inverse head and shoulders has formed since June, with price breaking straight through neckline resistance around $65k. The 50 EMA, the moving average that has marked every prior bear market bottom once broken with volume, has now been decisively reclaimed, with real volume behind it this time rather than the fading, low-conviction attempts we saw earlier in the year.
So it isn’t one signal, it’s five confirming together: the trend line break, the inverse head and shoulders, the 50 EMA reclaim, the shift in sentiment from capitulation to accumulation-grade indifference, and the clearest tell of all, buyer behaviour. Every sell-off since the bottom has been bought, aggressively, and the sellers who once controlled every bounce simply aren’t showing up anymore. That combination is what gives us the confidence to call this ahead of the formal $83k confirmation rather than waiting for the print.
The Accumulation Phase (or Early Bull Market):
Historically there’s been a distinct period between the bear and bull markets. Price doesn’t flip a switch from bear to bull, it transitions through a phase first.
Whether you call this the Accumulation Phase or Early Bull Market is largely semantics. The label matters less than what it represents: a sustained period of price appreciation off the low. Whichever term you prefer, the direction from here is the same, and that’s the part worth focusing on.
For this cycle, we’re marking that period as running from current price up to $97k. If you want a timeframe attached, we’d estimate the next 6-12 months to play out across that range.
This period also tends to be where altcoins and individual sectors put on their moves. We saw it earlier this year with HYPE, and we’ll no doubt see it again through whatever narrative captures the market’s attention next. Double digit returns and coins doing multiples aren’t unusual in this phase, and it can be tempting to chase them.
But it’s important not to get distracted. The goal here is Bitcoin accumulation. Altcoin rotations come and go, and for every winner making headlines there are far more that don’t. Stay focused on the primary trade.
This is also the point worth being clear-eyed about. Once Bitcoin moves through the accumulation and early bull phases, the next leg tends to kick in fast, and it’s historically not been a market that waits around for latecomers. You want to be fully allocated before that happens, not scrambling to catch up once it’s already underway. This window, right here, is the last real opportunity to build your position before the broader market catches on. The longer you wait, the worse your entry, and the worse your eventual returns.
If you think this is just another bull trap and aren’t ready to buy into the breakout, stay tuned, we’re tackling exactly that in tomorrow’s Morning Note.
Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,602)
Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,602)
