To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/
If you’re staring at this rally wondering whether it’s another bull trap or fake-out, today’s note is for you.
The bear market is over. What’s played out over the past week isn’t a fake-out stitched into a longer downtrend, it’s the confirmation signal that the bottom is already behind us. This isn’t a hunch dressed up as conviction, rather there’s real structure underneath it, and historical data has said the same thing before.
Believe it or not; this Breakout is Textbook
In our Q3 Market Outlook published the first week of July, we flagged that a swing low was the likely next move, and that’s precisely what played out. Price came within $2,735 of our $55,000 target, landing at a new low of $57,735 before the market quietly slipped into accumulation. Being within a < 5% (+/-) tolerance, sometimes close is close enough.
This has happened before, and it’s worth remembering exactly how it played out last time. Heading into the 2022 bottom, everyone was fixated on $10,000 as the level that would confirm the low. Bitcoin never gave it to them. It bottomed near $15,000 instead, went under the radar, accumulated for two months, then launched to $25,000 and never looked back. The people waiting for the exact number they’d predicted missed the move entirely. The structure mattered more than the precise digit, and that’s exactly the situation we’re in again now.
The Pattern Underneath the Move
The accumulation phase that followed our $57,735 low built out as a textbook inverse head and shoulders, and the tell was in how price behaved inside it. Every attempt to push back below the higher low range between $62,000-$61,000 failed. Each failed breakdown was the market quietly telling us the same thing: high volatility was coming, and the longer that choppiness dragged on without a new low, the more the odds tilted toward a break to the upside rather than another leg down.
That’s exactly what happened.
