TOP BUYERS BEWARE

24 Feb 2026 01:21 PM By Stormrake

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If you bought the top of the market, it may feel like the end of the world. It can feel as though your investment is lost and, truth be told, it may be a long wait until you are back in profit. But the reality is there are actions you can take to improve your position. It will require discipline and patience, but it can drastically reduce the time you spend underwater.

The chart above is not attempting to predict when or at what price the cycle bottom will form. That is an entirely different discussion. Instead, it highlights the patience required and the position top buyers historically find themselves in.

Buying the top is typically a retail phenomenon, and retail participants often lack the conviction required to withstand prolonged drawdowns. A 2013 top buyer spent around 40 months underwater, 2017 buyers roughly 35 months and 2021 buyers closer to 28 months.

Looking back at those levels today, $1.2k in 2013 and $20k in 2017 were extraordinary opportunities, and while every Bitcoin holder would welcome the chance to accumulate at those prices, the reality is they will not be seen again. Credit goes to those who maintained conviction through the drawdowns and are now reaping the rewards. There will come a time when investors look back at $65k in exactly the same way.

It is no surprise many retail investors struggle to endure bear markets. They buy into hype and FOMO at the highs without long term conviction, only to find themselves holding losses and, in many cases, realising them.

The exercise simply shows how long one would have had to wait to return to profit if they bought the exact top and did nothing. Now compare that with those who entered Bitcoin after a 50% retracement from the peak, which is where Bitcoin finds itself from the current all time high. In both the 2017 and 2021 cycles, buyers at a 50% discount were underwater for around 16 months. That is a stark contrast to those who bought the absolute top.

What Can Top Buyers Do?

If you bought the peak, yes, there may be a long road ahead. But that is only the case if you choose not to act. Action, in this context, means accumulating more Bitcoin, either through a lump sum allocation or a dollar cost averaging strategy, to lower your average entry price. I would encourage you to revisit our recent Morning Note discussing lump sum versus dollar cost averaging.

By reducing your average entry, you also reduce the time required to return to profit. Consistent accumulation during a bear market, particularly at significant discounts from previous highs, can materially change the recovery timeline.

The length of time spent underwater is not purely a function of price. It is also a function of strategy. Yes, liquidity is required. But more importantly, conviction is essential.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($5,248)

PAXG is breaking out once again, supported by the prevailing risk off sentiment dominating markets. Tariff tensions, Middle East conflict and renewed AI related uncertainty have driven capital towards hard assets. Overnight, PAXG was up over 1%, silver climbed more than 4%, while major equity indices closed lower.

If this momentum continues, a push back towards the all time high looks increasingly likely.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin has shed nearly 4.5% over the past 24 hours, falling below $64k overnight. This move appears to confirm a break from the multi week consolidation that characterised much of February.

If the breakdown is sustained, which current structure suggests is probable, a retest of the $60k level looks likely.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 23 Feb: (data not availabale at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis and James Ryan

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TOP BUYERS BEWARE

What Can Top Buyers Do?

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($5,248)

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

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