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After Three Red Weeks, Bitcoin Has a Habit

· Bitcoin Deep Dive · Stormrake

  • BTC
  • ZEC

Table of the probability of a green weekly Bitcoin candle after consecutive red weeks, 2015 to 2025: 61% after one red week (83 of 135), 70% after two (37 of 53), 70.6% after three (12 of 17), and 5 of 5 after four across three bull market cycles

When we published Part 5 of our Q4 2026 Outlook Breakdown on 9 October, the first red week of this streak was still being drawn. Three weekly closes later, the red-week numbers in that analysis have gone from history lesson to live test.

A Gentle Slide

Here is the streak. The week of 5 October fell 3.2%, the week of 12 October fell 2.0% and the week of 19 October fell 2.4%. From the 4 October close near $86,500 to the 25 October close near $80,100, that adds up to about 7%.

Put another way, all three red weeks combined have given back less than a third of the 23.69% gain from the week of 17 August, the candle that opened this bull run.

What History Says Comes Next

Our Q4 Outlook’s deep dive studied red streaks across Bitcoin’s last three bull runs. After three red weeks in a row, the following week closed green 12 times out of 17, or 70.6%.

That stat applies because Bitcoin is in a bull run on our framework. The 2026 bear market trend line broke in mid-August, and Bull Run 4 has been underway since 17 August.

Plan B Is 5 for 5

If this week closes red as well, the next statistic takes over. Across the same three bull runs, Bitcoin printed four straight red weeks five times, and the fifth week closed green on all five occasions (5 of 5).

Combine the two and the picture is clear. On all 17 occasions that Bitcoin printed three red weeks in a row during its last three bull runs, a green week arrived within the next two weeks (17 of 17).

The Line for Green Is $80,100

A green week simply means Bitcoin closes the week higher than it opened. This week’s candle opened at about $80,100, right where last week closed.

The candle closes at 11:00 am AEDT on Monday 2 November. With the Fed decision now behind us, the main crypto event left before that close is tonight’s monthly options expiry.

What We Are Watching

The weekly close. A close above about $80,100 at 11:00 am AEDT on Monday 2 November turns the streak green and delivers the 12 in 17 setup.

Tonight’s options expiry. About $11bn of Bitcoin options, roughly 35% of Deribit’s open interest, settle at 7:00 pm AEDT. The single largest position sits in $95,000 calls.

Week five, if needed. A red close on Monday opens the 5 of 5 window, which runs through the 3 November US midterms.

The streak is three weeks old. In Bitcoin’s last three bull runs, four was the longest any red streak ran.

Stormrake Spotlight: Zcash (ZEC) ($1,270)

Zcash 4-hour chart near $1,268, pulled back from a wick to about $1,400 at the top of its October consolidation range, with the trend-reversal level near $1,390 overhead and range support near $1,060

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/SDoxta91/

Zcash (ZEC) has made a push to the top end of the current price consolidation channel at a high of $1,398.14 overnight, although sellers have come in since. Now the bulls and the bears fight it out over today’s daily candle which has a range of +/- 15%. This indecisive volatility will likely continue within the range until short-term trend has a clear break to either the upside or downside.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin 4-hour chart near $78,900 after a wick to $78,297 below the lower line of the descending channel from the $87,400 high, under the horizontal level near $81,200

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/aPV1Idd2/

Bears have made a push in the early hours of this morning in an attempt to get price below the descending range and forming bull flag. Whilst buyers have already begun stepping in quickly since the low of $78,297 - the sell off was primarily driven by an alleged hack on centralised exchanges this morning, including but potentially not limited to Binance. The headlines are fresh and new information is coming out by the minute. At Stormrake, we have zero direct exposure to this event, adding another win to our flawless institutional custody track-record. As we closely monitor the evolving situation, it’s worth remembering this isn’t a flaw with Bitcoin; rather it adds credence to the ideals and values for Bitcoin’s creation in the first place - to be self-sovereign without reliance on faceless, third party intermediaries. Speak to your dedictaed and personable Stormrake broker today, as in the meantime, our institutional-grade custody will keep you secure and primed to enter this next market expansion. Bitcoin may have a price, but peace of mind doesn’t on days like today.

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by James Ryan

Disclaimer

This information is general in nature and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation, or needs. Before acting, you should consider whether this information is appropriate for your circumstances and seek independent advice if necessary.

Digital assets are volatile and carry significant risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You may lose some or all of your investment.