This Time It Is Different
This Time It Is Different
This Time It Is Different
April’s positive price action has brought into question where we currently are in the Bitcoin cycle, especially with prices now up approximately 30% from the February lows. The question on everyone’s lips is: Is the bottom in? While historical cycles might suggest otherwise, the underlying market structure and the shift in global adoption indicate that this time, we are witnessing a very different recovery.
Why Conviction Trumps Timing
The conflict in the Middle East continues with postponed deadlines for ceasefires and failed negotiations. Despite this, Bitcoin and other assets have shown great resilience and trended much higher throughout the month. Historically, Bitcoin has bottomed around 365 days following an all-time high, which would suggest a cycle bottom in October. However, things are different this time. The last few months have been full of bad news and events that historically would shake Bitcoin and send risk assets lower, yet the market is showing a unique strength.
Cast your mind back to 2022. Bitcoin was firmly in a bear market for six months from its all-time high. The Terra Luna collapse then sent shockwaves through the space, driving Bitcoin down 50%. Another major capitulation followed in November with the FTX collapse, sending prices down nearly 30% before finally finding a cycle low.
Compare this to the current landscape. We are six months on and roughly 40% from the all-time high. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has increased volatility, and historically, these geopolitical shocks do not bode well for risk assets. If this were 2022, Bitcoin would likely be continuing its move to the downside, selling off on every bearish announcement. Instead, while oil prices have surged, Bitcoin's reaction has shifted.
The key difference lies in the players. The 2021 and 2022 period was dominated by retail investors and traders. Today, the opposite is true. Institutions and smart money are the primary drivers while retail has remained relatively absent compared to previous cycles. Smart money understands when to take advantage of discounts, whereas retail often sits on the sidelines second-guessing entries. This accumulation during a technically bearish period is being led by institutional investors as ETF flows have turned positive and entities like Strategy continue to add to their positions.
Whether we have reached the absolute bottom or not, now is the time to accumulate. History shows that buying during periods of extreme pessimism is consistently rewarded. Consider those who bought in 2022; even when prices fell from $25,000 to $15,000, those investors are now up significantly. They accepted the possibility of further downside to capture generational upside.
Accumulating within 30% of a potential bottom is extremely rewarding for those with long-term conviction. We are far closer to the end of this bear market than the start. Do not wait for lower prices that may never arrive. Even if further downside occurs, you are currently positioning yourself at generational lows. So the real question shouldn’t be ‘is the bottom in?’ but more so, ‘how strong is your conviction?’. Your answer to this question will help you realise that the answer to the first question is irrelevant.
Check out our Quarter 2 Outlook for a detailed breakdown of where we are in the market and what the next couple of months may look like.
April has presented an opportunity; May you take advantage?
April has presented an opportunity; May you take advantage?
For the first time in nearly a year, Bitcoin has increased by over 10% in a single month. It has been an incredibly resilient month for Bitcoin and the crypto space, pushing higher despite the noise and headwinds fuelled by the uncertainty of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
Bitcoin has not only increased by 11% in April but has seen its first bullish momentum cross since April last year. Let’s delve deeper into the price action. As aforementioned, Bitcoin is up nearly 30% from February , and in doing so, it has created a sustained bullish crossover which is incredibly constructive for the bulls.
May has historically been a bullish month for Bitcoin, delivering an average return of 19.4% over the last 15 years, with nine of those being positive months. Despite the bulls regaining momentum and having history on their side for May, the bears still control the overall structure with a series of lower lows. The bears are looking to create another lower high, which would remain the case unless Bitcoin breaks above $98,000. We are not looking to create a higher high in May; instead, we want to see a continuous climb in price action similar to what we have witnessed over the last two months.
Just as crucially, it is important to note the current bear flag that Bitcoin has been in since the beginning of February. The bulls are attempting to break out of this and nullify the pattern, but the bears are currently aided by key resistance at $80,000.
This will be the level to watch for May. If we see a sustained breakout above $80,000, we can look to potentially fulfil May’s historical average return and be very close to calling the cycle bottom. Whilst price remains under $80,000 and within the bear flag, the opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin at major discounts alongside smart money remains open. However, this window will not be open forever. Ensure you act on your conviction; your future self will thank you.
In the News
In the News
Stormrake Take America:
One of the biggest milestones in Stormrake history has just been hit, with Stormrake officially launching in the United States via a Zero Hash partnership. Officially announced at Bitcoin 2026 Las Vegas, the presence and the on-stage discussion by Stormrake CEO Michael Milmeister and COO Bisher Khudeira mark just the beginning of this journey.
Protecting Your Assets: The Risks of Rehypothecation
A concerning trend has resurfaced in the market that serves as a vital reminder for all investors: always check the terms and conditions of your service provider. Specifically, you must look out for the practice of rehypothecation. While some platforms may use this to boost their own bottom line, the practice is extremely dangerous and adds a significant layer of risk to your holdings.
Rehypothecation is when a provider uses your assets to earn themselves a yield. Much like a traditional bank, they take your capital and lend it out to third parties to earn interest. In this scenario, your assets are working, but they are not working for you. Even more concerning is that many of these agreements allow the provider to pass any losses incurred from these activities directly onto the client.
We have seen this practice fail spectacularly in the past, most famously with Alameda Research using the funds of its sister exchange FTX to invest and attempt to generate returns. The result was a total collapse that left clients waiting years to recoup even a fraction of their holdings. When choosing where to custody your digital wealth, ensure they are holding your assets 1:1.
At Stormrake, we do not rehypothecate your funds. Your assets are kept in an institutional-grade custody solution where they sit securely until you choose to move them.Hormuz Toll Booth:
As we have been covering in recent Stormrake Morning Notes, the conflict in the Middle East has seen Iran virtually shut the Strait of Hormuz. The only way for tankers to gain safe passage is to pay a toll, with reported figures reaching approximately $2 million per vessel.
Due to sanctions and the restrictive nature of fiat currency, Iran has moved away from the US dollar and is reportedly demanding Bitcoin as the chosen settlement method. This development highlights the growing adoption of Bitcoin, not just as an investment or store of wealth, but as the global neutral settlement layer it was designed to be.
Market Update
Market Update
Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in April 2026:
- Bitcoin increased by 11% in April.
- Ethereum rose by 7.30% during the month.
- Hyperliquid is up nearly 10% and is currently knocking on the door of the top 10.
- PAXG declined by 2.74% for the month.
- The total crypto market capitalisation grew by 8% in April.
Video of the month
Bitcoin Wins No Matter Who Wins the War - Here's Why
Bitcoin Wins No Matter Who Wins the War - Here's Why
Mark Di Paola and Bisher Khudeira
Education: Bitcoin as the Global Neutral Settlement Layer
While headlines often focus on Bitcoin’s price as a speculative asset, April 2026 has provided a definitive real-world case study of its true evolution: its emergence as a global neutral settlement layer.
The End of the "Information Only" Era
To understand why this shift matters, we must look at the traditional financial rails that have governed global trade for decades. Traditional systems like SWIFT often act as messaging services where actual settlement takes days, involves high fees, and is subject to the operating hours of multiple jurisdictions.
Bitcoin represents a paradigm shift because it unifies the flow of information and the flow of funds. When a Bitcoin transaction is sent, the ownership of the asset is transferred and settled on-chain simultaneously. This enables settlement within minutes rather than days.
Why Neutrality is the New Gold Standard
In 2026, the concept of "neutral money" has moved from academic theory to geopolitical necessity. As we have seen with the Hormuz toll booth scenario, traditional fiat currencies can be restricted or frozen by issuing governments to enforce sanctions.
For global trade participants, Bitcoin solves this through three core pillars:
- Permissionless: No central authority can block a valid transaction or unplug a nation from the network.
- 24/7/365 Operation: Unlike traditional markets that close over weekends, Bitcoin’s settlement layer never sleeps.
- Sovereign Revenue: For the first time, states are using decentralised infrastructure as a sovereign revenue mechanism at major maritime chokepoints.
The Mathematical Imbalance
The functional use of Bitcoin in global trade also creates a structural impact on price. As reported in April, the Iranian toll system alone requires a significant portion of the daily issued Bitcoin supply to facilitate passage through the Strait of Hormuz. When a single real-world use case begins absorbing a large percentage of new issuance, it creates a supply and demand imbalance that exerts consistent upward pressure on the asset's value.
Bitcoin is no longer just digital gold for saving; it is becoming the digital rail for global commerce. Understanding this transition is the difference between viewing Bitcoin as a volatile trade and recognising it as the emerging architecture of 2026 wealth.
Written by Alexandar Artis
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No Advice Warning
The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
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All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.Cryptocurrency transaction and custody services are powered by Zero Hash LLC and Zero Hash Liquidity Services LLC. When you enable Stormrake's digital asset services, you must also agree to the Zero Hash LLC and Zero Hash Liquidity Services LLC terms and conditions and enable your Zero Hash account. Cryptocurrency assets are held and custodied by Zero Hash LLC, not Stormrake IA Pty Ltd. Services may not be available in all states. Cryptocurrency assets are not subject to Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or Securities Investor Protection Corporation coverage. The value of any cryptocurrency, including digital assets pegged to fiat currency, commodities, or any other asset, may go to zero.
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